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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 16, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.02 |
+150 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
4.58 |
-170 
|
u8.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +130
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Nathaniel Lowe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.99 |
+140
|
o7.5 -128
|
+1.5 -159 
|
|
4.78 |
-157
|
u8.5 -124 
|
-1.5 +145
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 on grass.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+148)
o0.5+148
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.18 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.20 |
+125
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -135
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 7-0 in Rodons last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
o0.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.86 |
+105
|
o8.5 -102
|
+1.5 -198
|
|
4.58 |
-118
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +170 
|
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in Monteros last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Hao-Yu Lee o0.5 Total RBIs (+237)
o0.5+237
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.37 |
+165
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.80 |
-184
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +122
|
Athletics
- are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 9-0 in Martinezs last 9 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.71 |
-210
|
o8.5 +100
|
-1.5 -125
|
|
4.21 |
+180
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 +106
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+163)
o1.5+163
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.67 |
-135
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
4.53 |
+120
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 home games.
- Pirates are 9-0 in Jones' last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.39 |
-190
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
4.34 |
+170
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -104
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+161
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.40 |
+123
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.33 |
-138
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +145
|
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.11 |
+120
|
o7.5 -118
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.72 |
-140
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +152
|
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
-105
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.97 |
-108
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +150
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Texas
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 home starts.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.44 |
+121
|
o8.0 -165
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.78 |
-140
|
u9.0 -114
|
-1.5 +152
|
Kansas City
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 overall.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Royals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jac Caglianone o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-104)
o1.5+105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.25 |
-165
|
o10.0 -186
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
5.56 |
+145
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -105
|
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rockies last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Xander Bogaerts o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.57 |
-135
|
o7.0 -200
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.31 |
+120
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -145
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Mariners last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Kirbys last 6 starts on grass.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts overall.
Top Projection
Jose Siri o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
o1.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.83 |
+115
|
o8.0 -162
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.26 |
-130
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Marlins last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0-2 in Kellys last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+134)
o1.5+138
CHW
@
CLE
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Nathaniel Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+245)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Progressive Field grades out as the #2 field in the game for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.. Nathaniel Lowe has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Chicago White Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of every team today.
Strikeouts Thrown
Anthony Kay o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-151)
Projection 3.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Progressive Field as the 10th-best field in the league for strikeouts.. Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Anthony Kay must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary offerings a lot this year: 60.2% of the time, placing in the 84th percentile.. With a 0.53 disparity between Anthony Kay's 7.32 K/9 and his 7.85 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to positively regress in the future.
SF
@
STL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:15 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Matthew Liberatore o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+126)
Projection 5.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the San Francisco Giants with a 27.6% underlying K%.. Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Matthew Liberatore will hold that advantage today.. Matthew Liberatore's slider usage has spiked by 5.9% from last year to this one (21.1% to 27%) .
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+212)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 90°.. Ivan Herrera hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
NYY
@
MIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in the game.. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.. In the past week, Aaron Judge's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.2%.
Total Bases
Ben Rice o1.5 Total Bases (+113)
Projection 1.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ben Rice ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Ben Rice will have the handedness advantage over Zebby Matthews today.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.. Ben Rice's launch angle in recent games (26.3° over the last week) is significantly higher than his 14.5° seasonal angle.
DET
@
TOR
Wed, Sep 16 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Bases
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. George Springer is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. George Springer hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. George Springer will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Spencer Torkelson has averaged 30.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 89th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. When it comes to power, Spencer Torkelson finds himself in the 75th percentile, having averaged 24.7 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.
ATH
@
TB
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Nick Madrigal u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Nick Madrigal is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.
Total RBIs
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Total RBIs (+238)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Lawrence Butler is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The #1 ballpark in the game for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Lawrence Butler will have the handedness advantage over Nick Martinez today.. Lawrence Butler has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. In the past week's worth of games, Lawrence Butler's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.4% up to 17.6%.
LAD
@
CIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.01
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 18th-best batter in baseball.. Will Smith is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best venue in baseball for RHB home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 88°.. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Will Smith will have the upper hand today.
Total Hits
Miguel Rojas u0.5 Total Hits (+115)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 18th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Miguel Rojas is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 7th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Miguel Rojas today.
MIL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 18th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
Total Bases
Ryan O'Hearn o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
PHI
@
WAS
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Brandon Marsh o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his BABIP talent, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 6th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team today.. In the last week, Brandon Marsh's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.1-mph of late.
Total Bases
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 3rd-best hitter in the league as it relates to his BABIP talent.. James Wood is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The 6th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Considering Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, James Wood will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.
BAL
@
NYM
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+121)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 15th-best batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. In the last two weeks, Pete Alonso's 57.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 51.5%.. Pete Alonso has posted a .381 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage today.. Francisco Lindor has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 95.9-mph over the last 7 days.
ATL
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
At 45%, give me the Atlanta Braves to defeat the Chicago Cubs, as I think they should be trading closer to 49% in this matchup. JR Ritchie is on the mound for the Braves, but I don't expect him to go deep into the game. Fortunately, Atlanta has the relievers necessary to piece together a strong pitching performance against the left-handed bats in the Cubs' lineup. Left-handed reliever Dylan Lee hasn't pitched yet in this series, Raisel Iglesias has always been tough on left-handed hitters because of his changeup, and the Braves have multiple other lefties in the bullpen in Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd. This breakdown is about neutralizing the power of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, if that wasn't obvious already. The Cubs' bullpen, on the other hand, ranks last in fWAR over the last 30 days.
Total Bases
Austin Riley u1.5 Total Bases (-245)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Austin Riley is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. The league's 7th-highest fences can be found at Wrigley Field.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Typically, bats like Austin Riley who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shota Imanaga.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
BOS
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Wyatt Langford's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 92.8-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 90.1-mph over the past two weeks.
Total Bases
Jahmai Jones u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers.. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jahmai Jones in today's matchup.
KC
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Jose Altuve u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 stadium in the league for suppressing batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to less offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.. Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 92.1-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 88.6-mph over the last 14 days.
Total RBIs
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+182)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Salvador Perez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph figure.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Salvador Perez's true offensive ability to be a .322, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .040 gap between that figure and his actual .282 wOBA.
SD
@
COL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Adael Amador u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adael Amador in the 7th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Adael Amador is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. Adael Amador has been cold recently, posting a 84.1-mph average exit velocity in the last two weeks.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.229) suggests that Adael Amador has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .298 actual wOBA.. Adael Amador ranks in the 17th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (37.5% rate since the start of last season).
Total RBIs
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Coors Field ranks as the #1 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Mason Adams throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have the upper hand today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 10.8°, Jake Cronenworth has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 27.8° angle in the last week.. Despite posting a .269 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Cronenworth has had some very poor luck given the .037 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.
SEA
@
LAA
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:38 PM ET
Moneyline
LAA (+118)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Yusei Kikuchi’s season numbers aren’t pretty, but his recent form tells a different story, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17 innings. Neither offense inspires much confidence, so I’m happy to take the plus money with the hotter starter. Kikuchi also owns a 1.32 ERA across six career starts against Seattle.
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 7th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Mike Trout will hold that advantage in today's game.
MIA
@
AZ
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Pavin Smith u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 23rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Pavin Smith is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. 20% of the time that Pavin Smith has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early.. Chase Field has the 3rd-deepest CF fences in MLB.. Chase Field has the 10th-tallest fences among all major league stadiums.
Total Home Runs
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Projection 0.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Kyle Stowers is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Kyle Stowers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's matchup.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has become somewhat of an ageless wonder for the Red Sox, and the veteran right-hander has limited Texas hitters to a lifetime .505 OPS. With Gray on the hill, Boston is playable to -135.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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