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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 18, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.11 |
+155 
|
o7.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -134 
|
|
5.23 |
-179 
|
u8.0 -114 
|
-1.5 +125 
|
Kansas City
- Over is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 9-1-1 in Royals last 11 overall.
- Under is 9-1-1 in Royals last 11 on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+151)
o0.5+151
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.05 |
-124
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -280 
|
|
4.28 |
+110
|
u9.0 -130
|
+1.5 -149
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 overall.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in Burns' last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Reds last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Reds last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Sal Stewart o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.15 |
-135
|
o8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +126 
|
|
4.16 |
+120
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -136
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. American League East.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games.
Baltimore
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-2 in Orioles last 9 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.76 |
+110
|
o7.0 -120 
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.79 |
-124
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +175
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 8-1 in Red Sox last 9 games as a favorite.
- Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 overall.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+350)
o0.5+350
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.57 |
+166
|
o8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
4.71 |
-190
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +115
|
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 overall.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+148)
o0.5+148
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.89 |
+102
|
o8.5 -102
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
5.09 |
-110
|
u8.5 -112
|
-1.5 +150
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 road games.
NY Mets
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Thorntons last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130)
o1.5-115
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
+115
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.56 |
-130
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 on grass.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 on grass.
- White Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Dillon Dingler o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
o1.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
-132
|
o7.5 -114
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
3.77 |
+120
|
u7.5 -103
|
+1.5 -145
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Ceases last 7 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Ceases last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Texas
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Josh Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.68 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
5.37 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 9-1 in Mariners last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Mariners last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 10-2 in Mariners last 12 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Colorado
- Over is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 games a home underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.79 |
-114
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
4.59 |
+101
|
u8.5 -118
|
+1.5 -160
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.40 |
-103
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.16 |
-112
|
u7.5 -102
|
-1.5 +172
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 8-0 in Cavallis last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Leahys last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.28 |
-124
|
o8.5 +102
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.76 |
+108
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -160
|
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 on grass.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League West.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 15-3 in Angels last 18 vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Jose Siri o0.5 Total RBIs (+224)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.81 |
+170
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -129
|
|
4.44 |
-190
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +120
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 overall.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 on grass.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nick Pivetta o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+124)
o5.5+124
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.10 |
-125
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.87 |
+115
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -150
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 road games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
o1.5+110
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.53 |
+250
|
o7.5 -125
|
+2.5 -140
|
|
5.32 |
-295
|
u8.0 -110
|
-2.5 +115
|
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 vs. National League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Giants last 7 overall.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Dodgers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Will Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
o0.5+150
KC
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+151)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Randy Dobnak in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz has strong power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (30.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Dobnak doesn't generate many whiffs (7th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jac Caglianone in the 84th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Jac Caglianone is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Jac Caglianone will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes in today's matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest out of every team today.. Jac Caglianone has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last year's 89.4-mph average.
CHC
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Michael Conforto u1.5 Total Bases (-300)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Michael Conforto's BABIP ability is projected in the 15th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Michael Conforto is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.. Michael Conforto has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 30% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Michael Conforto today.. Michael Conforto has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.
Total RBIs
Sal Stewart o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Sal Stewart is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 81°.. Sal Stewart has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Sal Stewart will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.
MIL
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:05 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jake Bauers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jake Bauers ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jake Bauers is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jake Bauers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.1-mph over the course of the season to 98.1-mph in recent games.
BOS
@
TB
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (+107)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
For the second day in a row, give me the Boston Red Sox, who are trading at 48% on Polymarket, but I price them closer to a 51% favorite against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox came through with a green checkmark on Thursday against the Texas Rangers, so we'll jump on the bandwagon for one more day. The Rays can put seven right-handed bats in the lineup, with their two most dangerous hitters, Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero, both swinging from that side. However, this matchup isn't as bad for Ranger Suárez as you might think. He isn't a soft-tossing southpaw, and his two-seam sinker should get in on the hands of Tampa Bay's right-handed hitters. The natural swing paths of Caminero and Díaz should also lead to ground balls against this pitch rather than elevated contact into the gaps.
Total RBIs
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jahmai Jones in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Jahmai Jones is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 field in the majors for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jahmai Jones will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ian Seymour today.. Jahmai Jones pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
ATH
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Progressive Field as the 2nd-best venue in MLB for right-handed BABIP.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Zack Gelof has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 16.1% in the past two weeks' worth of games.
Total RBIs
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The #2 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Daniel Espino throws from, Lawrence Butler will have the upper hand today.. Lawrence Butler has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
PHI
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Francisco Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage today.. In the past 14 days, Francisco Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.4-mph over the course of the season to 103.1-mph recently.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Citi Field.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today's game.
DET
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
62% of the time that Randal Grichuk has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the best pitching conditions of all games on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hurlers.. Over the last 14 days, Randal Grichuk's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.. Randal Grichuk has been lucky this year, notching a .370 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .045 disparity.
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 7th-best field in MLB for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. Miguel Vargas will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Sears in today's game.. Miguel Vargas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
TOR
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Corey Seager projects as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Corey Seager will hold the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Corey Seager will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs
Josh Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. Because of Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Josh Smith will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Josh Smith has shown impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 80th percentile with a 1.88 K/BB rate.
ATL
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
Projection 0.4
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mike Yastrzemski will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Peter Lambert today.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the weakest among every team today.. Despite posting a .304 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mike Yastrzemski has had some very poor luck given the .022 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .326.
Total Bases
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the weakest among every team today.. Austin Riley has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 109.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal EV of 95-mph.. Austin Riley has been hot of late, notching a a 16.7% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Riley's true offensive ability to be a .331, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .042 difference between that figure and his actual .289 wOBA.
WAS
@
STL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:15 PM ET
Total Bases
JB
Joshua Baez o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joshua Baez in the 92nd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Joshua Baez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 91°.. Extreme flyball batters like Joshua Baez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cade Cavalli.
Total Bases
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP talent.. James Wood is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 91°.. James Wood will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Leahy in today's matchup.
MIN
@
LAA
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:38 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jose Siri o0.5 Total RBIs (+224)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Jose Siri ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Siri is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Jose Siri will hold the platoon advantage over Connor Prielipp in today's game.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 7th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Mike Trout will hold the platoon advantage against Connor Prielipp in today's game.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams in action today.
MIA
@
SD
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Nick Pivetta o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+124)
Projection 6.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Pivetta in the 92nd percentile among all SPs in the game.. The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heriberto Hernandez, Esteury Ruiz, Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine).. The #9 venue in the league for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Otto Lopez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
Projection 2.04
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 10th-best batter in baseball when assessing his batting average talent.. Otto Lopez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Otto Lopez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
NYY
@
AZ
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.
Total Bases
Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 Total Bases (+122)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Paul Goldschmidt will have an edge in today's game.
SF
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 18 • 10:15 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Christian Koss o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+190)
Projection 1.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dodger Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the game for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Over the last week, Christian Koss's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.1%.. Based on Statcast metrics, Christian Koss grades out in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .265.
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Will Smith projects as the 18th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Will Smith is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Dodger Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the game for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Will Smith will have the handedness advantage against Cesar Perdomo in today's game.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
