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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 22, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.35 |
+113 
|
o6.5 -156
|
+1.5 -200 
|
|
4.44 |
-125
|
u7.5 -142 
|
-1.5 +172
|
Tampa Bay
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rasmussens last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rasmussens last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in Rodons last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.11 |
+105 
|
o7.5 -113
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.14 |
-118 
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +175
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Bassitts last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.87 |
+138
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.10 |
-150
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +146
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Detroit
- Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Abimelec Ortiz u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
u0.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.54 |
+120
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.24 |
-135 
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.97 |
+129
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.18 |
-145
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +160
|
St. Louis
- Cardinals are 6-0 in Pallantes last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a favorite.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+218
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.62 |
+110
|
o6.5 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.60 |
-125
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +175
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+312
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.21 |
+117
|
o6.5 -114
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
3.71 |
-130
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +173
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 road starts.
- Rays are 4-0 in Rasmussens last 4 starts on grass.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.64 |
+160
|
o9.0 -129
|
+1.5 -131
|
|
5.06 |
-184
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +120
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Williamsons last 4 starts as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
o1.5+133
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
-117
|
o7.5 -128
|
-1.5 +149
|
|
4.04 |
+100
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -165
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Royals are 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+258)
o0.5+258
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.78 |
+181
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
3.56 |
-210
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +110
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Junks last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games following a win.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
o0.5+290
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
+125
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.45 |
-140
|
u7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +155
|
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Texas
- Over is 6-0-1 in Rangers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
MacKenzie Gore o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+122)
o3.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.98 |
-185
|
o10.5 -125
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
4.87 |
+165
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 +105
|
Arizona
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Sorokas last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sorokas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Kyle Freeland o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+102)
o2.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.96 |
+126
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.40 |
-140
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +146
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Javiers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Javiers last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Seattle
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Gilberts last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.26 |
-104
|
o9.5 +101
|
-1.5 +152
|
|
4.90 |
-109
|
u9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -175
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in Bassos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 10-1 in last 11 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+154)
o0.5+154
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
-130
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +136
|
|
3.25 |
+115
|
u7.5 -102
|
+1.5 -152
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Kody Clemens u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
u0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
+105
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.76 |
-120
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+180
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Junior Caminero projects as the 17th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. Junior Caminero will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon today.. Junior Caminero's launch angle of late (19.1° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 9.9° seasonal angle.
Total Bases
Ryan Vilade u1.5 Total Bases (-290)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Ryan Vilade has been pulled from the game early in 36% of his appearances when starting against lefty on the mound.. Yankee Stadium profiles as the #25 field in the league for RHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9.9-mph in this contest, the 4th-best of the day for pitchers.. Ryan Vilade hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.
TOR
@
BAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 15th-best hitter in the game.. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (90%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Pete Alonso has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Pete Alonso will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+208)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, George Springer ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (90%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. George Springer hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
WAS
@
DET
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Riley Greene u0.5 Total Hits (+180)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Comerica Park projects as the #22 venue in the game for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 2nd-deepest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Comerica Park.. The weather report calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Jackson Kent will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Riley Greene today.. Riley Greene's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 21.1% to 16.9%.
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson u1.5 Total Bases (-270)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today's game.. The #9 stadium in MLB for suppressing base hits to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.. The weather report calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Spencer Torkelson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 22.9% to 19.8%.
MIL
@
PHI
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Brandon Marsh o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+200)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hitting from the opposite that Dustin May throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an edge in today's matchup.. Brandon Marsh has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Brandon Marsh will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 10th-best batter in the league.. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Dustin May in today's game.. Bryce Harper has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
STL
@
PIT
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 18th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz has big-time power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (30.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante has a pitch-to-contact profile (8th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Andre Pallante in today's game.. Bryan Reynolds will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
CLE
@
BOS
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jahmai Jones ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jahmai Jones is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Batting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Jahmai Jones will have an edge in today's matchup.. Jahmai Jones pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jahmai Jones will hold that advantage in today's game.
CIN
@
ATL
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. This game is projected to have the 4th-highest humidity on the slate (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against JR Ritchie in this game.. Elly De La Cruz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Eugenio Suarez as the league's 17th-best home run hitter.. The #4 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 4th-highest humidity on the slate (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Eugenio Suarez's launch angle in recent games (29.3° over the last 14 days) is considerably better than his 20.2° seasonal angle.
CHW
@
KC
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This year, Randal Grichuk has been pulled from the game early in 58% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.9-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for mound aces.. In today's matchup, Randal Grichuk is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.1% rate (77th percentile).. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Randal Grichuk in today's game.
Total RBIs
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium grades out as the #7 field in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Because of Anthony Kay's large platoon split, Salvador Perez will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Salvador Perez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
NYM
@
TEX
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Corey Seager u0.5 Total Hits (+195)
Projection 0.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #2 venue in baseball for suppressing batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. Considering Sean Manaea's large platoon split, Corey Seager will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Corey Seager hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. Corey Seager has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 14.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 7.1% in the past 7 days.. In the past week's worth of games, Corey Seager's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 94.7 mph to 84.3 mph.
Total Bases
Justin Foscue u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Justin Foscue in the 12th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. When starting against a lefty hurler this year, Justin Foscue has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 54% of the time.. The #1 venue in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. Justin Foscue hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Despite posting a .354 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Justin Foscue has had positive variance on his side given the .047 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.
AZ
@
COL
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Michael Soroka throws from, Mickey Moniak will have an advantage in today's game.. Mickey Moniak is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Mickey Moniak will hold that advantage in today's game.
Strikeouts Thrown
Kyle Freeland o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+102)
Projection 3.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kyle Freeland will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his metrics in all categories.. Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kyle Freeland has relied on his secondary offerings 6.9% more often this season (67.2%) than he did last year (60.3%).
HOU
@
SEA
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
J.P. Crawford o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
Projection 0.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. J.P. Crawford is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league parks.. J.P. Crawford will hold the platoon advantage against Cristian Javier in today's game.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Daulton Varsho o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+160)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Gilbert in today's matchup.. Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the worst among every team today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.2°, Daulton Varsho has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.6° mark in the last two weeks' worth of games.
LAA
@
ATH
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+101)
Projection 2.24
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Shea Langeliers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate today at 82°.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-144)
Projection 2.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Shea Langeliers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate today at 82°.
MIN
@
SF
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:45 PM ET
Total Hits
Kody Clemens u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kody Clemens's BABIP skill is projected in the 16th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Built just 8 feet above sea level, Oracle Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which often leads to less offense.. Kody Clemens will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.. Kody Clemens has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 11.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week's worth of games.. Kody Clemens has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph dropping to 86.1-mph over the past week.
SD
@
LAD
Tue, Sep 22 • 10:10 PM ET
Moneyline
LAD (-120)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Los Angeles Dodgers are trading as a 54% favorite, but I price them closer to 57%, so I'm hitting the button at this price. Justin Wrobleski will open the game, but the Dodgers also plan to use Roki Sasaki in a relief role as he returns from the injured list with a blister and prepares for a potential bullpen role in the postseason. Sasaki in relief is an intriguing weapon because he can empty the tank for a couple of innings, attack hitters with his high-octane four-seamer at the top of the zone and work his splitter off it down in the zone, rather than conserving his arm for 90-plus pitches. That usage is flying under the radar in this matchup, and I think it's a big reason we're seeing an edge at the current market price. Sasaki gives the Dodgers a legitimate weapon in middle relief who can help bridge the game to the back end of their bullpen.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-155)
Projection 2.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 8th-best hitter in MLB.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest average fence height in the majors.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 5th-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
