MLB Picks

Although the Brewers lineup is dangerous, Dustin May has quietly been more effective lately, allowing more than three earned runs only once in his last eight outings. Milwaukee’s bullpen has also been dominant, while St. Louis continues to struggle offensively. With six of the last seven meetings hitting the Under, another low-scoring game is likely.

Let's roll with the best +EV home run prop, per the projections at Covers, in the best HR environment on the slate, according to Ballpark Pal. This is once again a great spot for dingers, with both starters ranking in the bottom 35 among starting pitchers in HR/FB rate. Logan Gilbert has been giving up plenty of fly balls lately, carrying just a 39% groundball rate over his last five starts. His 21% HR/FB rate also ranks in the bottom 15 among starters. Shea Langeliers has already gone yard in this series and brings a strong fly-ball profile of his own, posting a 51% fly-ball rate over the last 30 days along with the team’s best Ideal Attack Angle, per FanGraphs bat-tracking metrics. His arrow has been pointing up all season, and now he gets a great pitching matchup, an elite hitting environment, and a home run price sitting roughly 50 points above the fair number.

There’s never really been a bad time this season to back the Tampa Bay Rays, but Wednesday presents an even better spot than usual. I price the Rays closer to -145 favorites against the Baltimore Orioles, yet they’re only trading around -108. Most of the power at the top of Baltimore’s lineup comes from right-handed bats like Taylor Ward, Pete Alonso, and Tyler O'Neill against Rays left-hander Steven Matz. While that may appear to give the Orioles a platoon advantage, Matz is a veteran lefty who relies on a changeup and a sinking fastball at the bottom of the zone—pitches specifically designed to neutralize the pull-side power of right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is expected to roll out seven left-handed bats against right-hander Trey Gibson, and those hitters are attacking the more favorable dimensions of Oriole Park at Camden Yards since the left-field wall adjustments.

The projections love the Reds to go deep today, and Nathaniel Lowe at +500 or better is the bat I want from this visiting lineup. He’ll likely see an opener before facing bulk reliever Jonah Tong, who allowed eight home runs in 38 Triple-A innings this year while posting a 5.68 ERA. It sets up as a favorable matchup for Cincinnati hitters, who have already gotten a look at this New York bullpen. Lowe carries a fair price around +500. Over the last 14 days, he leads the team in bat speed at 75.1 mph while also posting a 25% HR/FB rate and a .645 slugging percentage. He has been even hotter over the last week and gets the lefty-righty edge with 9-mph winds blowing out to right field. He sat yesterday against a lefty, but now gets a right-handed opener followed by a right-handed bulk arm with home-run issues. The Mets also appear to have only one available left-hander in the bullpen today.

If you’re going to give me an edge on the New York Yankees with Gerrit Cole on the mound—especially coming off a game where the bats scored 15 runs at Kauffman Stadium against the Kansas City Royals—I’m definitely hitting the button without hesitation. And it’s not just a small edge either. I price the Yankees closer to -205 favorites in this matchup. Noah Cameron is a left-handed pitcher, and while the Yankees lineup features plenty of left-handed bats, I love that two of their right-handed specialists against lefties are coming off big performances Tuesday. Amed Rosario hit two home runs at Kauffman Stadium, while Paul Goldschmidt added two hits of his own. And we should probably give Anthony Volpe some love too after his home run Tuesday. The bottom line is that this sets up as an excellent spot for the Yankees.

White Sox righty David Sandlin will be making his big-league debut Wednesday, and he’s topped out at four innings across six minor-league starts. So, with the Pale Hose bullpen sitting 25th in xFIP while allowing the second-highest squared-up contact rate, the Twins are set to start the damage early and keep putting up runs against a taxed Chicago bullpen that’s been tasked with 21 innings the past five games. Additionally, Minny lefty Connor Prielipp is coming off his worst start of the season, and Chicago ranks fifth in wOBA against southpaws for the year.