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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 30, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.97 |
-114 
|
o7.0 -114
|
-1.5 +160 
|
|
3.72 |
+100 
|
u7.5 -134 
|
+1.5 -178
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sanchezs last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Atlanta
- Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mahles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Ozzie Albies o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+263
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
+128
|
o7.5 -110 
|
+1.5 -179
|
|
4.46 |
-144
|
u7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +155 
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 7-0 in White Sox last 7 road games.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Burkes last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Houston
- Astros are 5-0 in Browns last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 9-1 in Astros last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Astros last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
o1.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.80 |
+120
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -195 
|
|
4.11 |
-130 
|
u6.5 +105
|
-1.5 +170
|
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Grays last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
NY Yankees
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Adley Rutschman o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.90 |
+120
|
o7.5 +101
|
+1.5 -184
|
|
4.59 |
-134
|
u7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +165
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 Wild Card Round games.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 during game 2 of a series.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in Pivettas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 Wild Card Round home games.
- Padres are 5-0 in Pivettas last 5 starts on grass.
PHI
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 30 • 2:00 PM ET
Moneyline
PHI (-109)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 50%. Cristopher Sanchez gives Philadelphia a strong chance to extend the series after posting a 2.25 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season. Tyler Mahle has been less convincing lately, carrying a 4.46 FIP across his last two outings while allowing 1.64 HR/9.
Moneyline
PHI (-109)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
I'll hit the button on the Philadelphia Phillies trading at 52% on Polymarket with their backs against the wall and their ace, Cristopher Sanchez, on the mound, as I price the Phillies closer to a 55% favorite. The main factor for me here is that it's a day game at Truist Park, where the ball can carry, with sunny skies and temperatures expected to reach the high 80s. Sanchez is arguably the best ground-ball pitcher in MLB, which helps him neutralize the ballpark factors created by the day game. Tyler Mahle, on the other hand, is a fly-ball pitcher, and his four-seam fastball and splitter combination doesn't profile well against the left-handed power bats of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
CHW
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 30 • 5:00 PM ET
Moneyline
HOU (-151)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 58%. Hunter Brown gives Houston the clearest starting-pitching advantage on today’s slate. He enters with a 1.73 FIP across his last three starts without allowing a home run, and he already limited Chicago to two earned runs in 13 innings this season. Sean Burke has pitched reasonably well, but the elevated hard-hit and barrel rates give Houston more offensive upside.
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most favorable pitching weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Miguel Vargas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.2% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball bats like Miguel Vargas are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.
BOS
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 30 • 8:00 PM ET
Total Bases
Luis Garcia Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Luis Garcia Jr. is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #9 field in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Yankee Stadium has the 4th-shortest fences in MLB.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game.
Strikeouts Thrown
Max Fried u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-111)
Projection 4.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Fried to throw 82 pitches in this game (2nd-most of the day), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Scott Barry projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is anticipated to be calling pitches in this game.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Max Fried's 2120-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 16th percentile out of all starters.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
