MLB Picks

Let's roll with the Pirates here as they are off to a better start overall. The rank inside the Top 12 in all major offensive categories, and should have enough to touch up Michael King, who was hit hard in his last start.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill as the 20th-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average skill.. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Jackson Merrill will have the handedness advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Dan Iassogna projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be behind the plate in today's game.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Cole Ragans in today's game.. With a 2.44 difference between Cole Ragans's 13.94 K/9 and his 11.50 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and ought to see negative regression the rest of the season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects C.J. Kayfus in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. The #3 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and C.J. Kayfus will hold that advantage in today's game.. C.J. Kayfus has notched a .333 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season, grading out in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich as the 11th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Christian Yelich is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average.. Christian Yelich will hold the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today's game.. Christian Yelich has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for right-handed batting average.. In the majors, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest.. Hitting from the same side that Chad Patrick throws from, Willson Contreras will have a tough matchup today.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kyle Bradish is projected to throw 83 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 3rd-worst field in the game for strikeouts.. Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Bradish in today's game.. Considering the 3.01 deviation between Kyle Bradish's 12.61 K/9 and his 9.60 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and ought to negatively regress the rest of the season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for overall RHB offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest in the majors.. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

The Texas Rangers are listed as +119 underdogs against Bryan Woo and the Seattle Mariners, and I’m definitely hitting that number—I believe the Rangers should be closer to -115 favorites in this spot. Mackenzie Gore has adjusted his release point since joining Texas, making it even more difficult for left-handed hitters to square him up. With Brendan Donovan setting the table at the top of the lineup and Josh Naylor hitting in the middle—both left-handed bats—it’s fair to question how Seattle generates offense, especially with Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez struggling at the plate as their primary right-handed threats. On the other side, Corey Seager and Jake Burger both profile well against Woo’s high-velocity, high-spin four-seam fastball, giving Texas a clear edge in this matchup.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 6th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 14° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. When it comes to power, Cal Raleigh has performed in the 100th percentile, having averaged 48.9 home runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

George Springer is an expert fastball hitter and can square Shohei Ohtani's four-seamer up to send it over the fence.

George Springer's success against Shohei Ohtani can be attributed to his ability to hit the four-seam fastball. The Blue Jays leadoff hitter had a .746 xSLG against the pitch in 2025, and it will lead to another multi-base affair today.

Let’s go to the thin air of Coors Field for a +410 +EV dinger from Christian Walker, who went deep last night and has homered in three of his last four games. The Houston Astros' offense ranks third in baseball at 1.33 homers per game and is the No. 2 scoring offense in the league at 6.5 runs per game. Yordan Alvarez is around +200 for a home run today, and Hunter Goodman, who projects similarly to Walker, is 110 points shorter than the guy we’re betting on. Colorado's Michael Lorenzen can’t keep the ball in the park and has surrendered three home runs in just 7+ innings of work. In his last start at home, he gave up nine runs and two bombs. There isn’t always value in hitters at Coors Field, but Walker is flying under the radar at this price.

As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Cristian Javier in the 12th percentile among all SPs in MLB.. Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cristian Javier is projected to throw 83 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of the day.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the worst park in the league for strikeouts.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 2nd-best hitting conditions on the slate today.

Oracle Park is a pitcher-friendly stadium, and I don’t expect Nola to allow many runs here. Plus, even when the Giants get to the Philadelphia bullpen, that doesn’t mean they’re going to magically wake up. San Francisco is struggling at the dish, ranking 29th in runs scored, 29th in OBP, and 28th in slugging.

Philly lost 6-0 on Tuesday, as Robbie Ray dominated them. However, today, they’re up against the struggling Tyler Mahle, who has a 7.00 ERA so far. The Phillies’ lineup is also hitting .308 against Mahle across 52 at-bats. Mahle allowed five earned runs last time out to the Mets. Nola, meanwhile, has compiled a 3.18 ERA across two starts, and he’s held this San Francisco lineup to a .178 average across 73 at-bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Michael McGreevy in the 7th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.. The Washington Nationals (20.5 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup of all teams today.. Scott Barry projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches today.. The Washington Nationals have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Michael McGreevy in this game.. Michael McGreevy will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest fences in the majors — generally good for homers.. Jordan Walker has big-time HR ability (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas has a pitch-to-contact profile (20th percentile K%) — great news for Walker.

Only Mike Trout projects for a better chance to go yard today in Anaheim, and with Jo Adell 100 points longer, his +470 home run price is the best +EV HR prop on the board, per the Covers projections powered by THE BAT. In fact, THE BAT is projecting for starters Reid Detmers and Grant Holmes to both go over their 2.5 earned run totals. Adell is coming off a very quiet 37-HR campaign in 2025, and the outfielder is starting to see the ball well of late, going 4-for-8 in this series vs. the Atlanta Braves with a longball. The Braves also used their five best high-leverage arms last night and could need some B-arms today. That's key as their bullpen has a 0.86 ERA through 41+ innings this year, which is unsustainable. This is the best +EV home run prop on a slate with only a handful of players showing value.

I’m a loyal guy, so when Ozzie Albies goes yard and cashes a +520 dinger yesterday and is fifty points longer today in a good hitting setting, I’m running it back. The switch-hitter always gets a bump in the order vs. lefties and will hit out of the three hole in the Atlanta Braves lineup. His slugging vs. lefties is 100 points better since 2024. He is facing Reid Detmers, who has been overworked early, throwing 199 pitches in two starts and coming off a 104-pitch outing. He hasn’t thrown more than 88 innings since 2023. Albies has also proven he can get to a Los Angeles Angels bullpen that has been punching above its weight early, with some metrics indicating some runs are coming. Ultimately, with low temperatures across the board and some getaway spots, this +570 price in one of the best-hitting settings stands out as a fair +500.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citi Field as the 2nd-worst park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to lefties.. Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with lower temperatures, and the weather forecast for this matchup predicts the 3rd-lowest temperature of all games today at 48°.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the best out of all the teams today.. Jorge Polanco is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams today).

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Tim Tawa will have the handedness advantage against David Peterson today.. Tim Tawa hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 85th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 16° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Pete Crow-Armstrong will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Boyle today... and moreover, Boyle has a large platoon split.. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Pete Crow-Armstrong stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 15° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Jonathan Aranda pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Will Benson's batting average ability is projected to be in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Will Benson is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense.. Will Benson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.. Will Benson has recorded a .219 batting average since the start of last season, placing in the 14th percentile.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 16° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. Ranking in the 99th percentile for power, Eugenio Suarez has paced 44.2 long-balls per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Batting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an advantage today.. Cody Bellinger may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Athletics has just 1 same-handed RP.. Cody Bellinger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Hitting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an edge today.. The Athletics have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

When estimating his home run ability, Kerry Carpenter ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kerry Carpenter is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best park in the game for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters.. Kerry Carpenter will have the handedness advantage against Bailey Ober today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Gleyber Torres is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters.