Baltimore @ St. Louis Picks & Props

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Jorge Mateo has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .226 figure is a fair amount lower than his .268 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Jorge Mateo has really hit the ball hard. If you were to take the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (109.2 mph) rank him among MLB's best: in the 75th percentile since the start of last season. Jorge Mateo is remarkably toolsy, ranking in the 99th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.96 ft/sec this year.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Cedric Mullins II will have the upper hand today. Cedric Mullins II has been unlucky this year, posting a .256 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .309 — a .053 disparity. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Cedric Mullins II ranks in the 99th percentile with a 21.7° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in MLB.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Austin Hays has posted a .321 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Nolan Arenado has had positive variance on his side this year. His .312 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .282. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Nolan Arenado ranks in the 84th percentile with a 16.9° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in the majors.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage today. Paul Goldschmidt has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .270 rate is quite a bit lower than his .324 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Ranked in the 76th percentile, Anthony Santander has one of the highest average exit velocities in the game since the start of last season (90.6-mph). In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Anthony Santander ranks in the 95th percentile with a 20.1° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in the majors.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Adley Rutschman has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .359. Adley Rutschman is in the 92nd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (48% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 15th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's game. Colton Cowser has been hot in recent games, putting up a .377 wOBA in the past two weeks. Posting a .327 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Colton Cowser has performed in the 76th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Batting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Gorman's 16.7% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Masyn Winn will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Masyn Winn has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .313 rate is quite a bit higher than his .270 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. By putting up a .282 batting average this year, Masyn Winn finds himself in the 81st percentile.

Ivan Herrera's BABIP ability is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Ivan Herrera's quickness has increased this year. His 26.72 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.45 ft/sec now. Ivan Herrera has put up a .386 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 97th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the majors. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Gunnar Henderson has been hot of late, cruising to a .392 wOBA over the past two weeks.

Ryan Mountcastle's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan Mountcastle is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. This contest is forecasted to have the 9th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. As it relates to his batting average, Ryan Mountcastle has been lucky this year. His .258 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .252. Since the start of last season, Ryan Mountcastle's 12% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 81st percentile among his peers.

Brendan Donovan's batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage today.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Ryan O'Hearn will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup. Ryan O'Hearn hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Alec Burleson's batting average ability is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage over Dean Kremer in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage in today's game.

Jordan Westburg's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 82°. Jordan Westburg has compiled a .286 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Since the start of last season, Jordan Westburg has an average exit velocity of 90.2 mph, which ranks among the elite in the majors at the 77th percentile.