MLB Picks

When estimating his home run skill, Salvador Perez ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Progressive Field profiles as the #3 park in the majors for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Progressive Field grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the handedness advantage against Gavin Williams in today's matchup.. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #5 venue in the game for overall LHB offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Shane Smith throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Tyler O'Neill as baseball's 17th-best home run batter.. Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. The #5 field in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (37.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.. Tyler O'Neill has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .293 figure is a good deal lower than his .352 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Eventually, replacing a six-time Silver Slugger like Soto with Jared Young, Carson Benge or Brett Baty will catch up with the Mets, especially with Francisco Lindor (2 extra base hits in 48 AB) slumping. 

New York has allowed the fourth-fewest runs in MLB and start Freddy Peralta against Arizona, which is averaging just 3.5 runs a game.

With the temps dropping to the 40s, finding dingers indoors is the key to a profitable home run card on Tuesday. The Trop is back, and Junior Caminero went deep there yesterday afternoon, which was his second straight game with a four-bagger. He has hits in four straight games, and nobody in baseball has a harder hit ball than him with his league-leading exit velocity of 116.9 mph. He faces Javier Assad, who was recalled from Triple-A to fill in for Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton. In his last minor league outing, Assad allowed two home runs on 11 hits and profiles as a contact-heavy arm. This shapes up as one of the better hitting matchups on the slate, making Caminero a strong value play at this price in a controlled environment.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Ian Happ is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Tropicana Field's right field dimensions are the 4th-shallowest.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 22° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will get to bat from his better side against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup.

The Miami Marlins are listed as -122 favorites at home against the Cincinnati Reds, and that number stands out—I make them closer to -155 in this spot. Two key matchup edges drive this play. First, Austin Slater at the top of the lineup is a great fit here. As a right-handed bat, he’s long been effective against left-handed pitching, particularly when it comes to attacking high fastballs—Andrew Abbott’s primary pitch. That gives Miami an immediate advantage at the top of the order. The second is the Sandy Alcantara vs. Elly De La Cruz matchup. De La Cruz brings a high-variance profile with significant strikeout risk, and Alcantara’s mix of a high-velocity sinker and changeup is well-suited to exploit that. He has the tools to consistently disrupt De La Cruz’s timing and limit his impact. When you combine those matchup advantages, this price feels too short for Miami.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 22° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara.. Eugenio Suarez has been hot recently, putting up a a 20% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) over the past 14 days.

The Paul Skenes tax is alive and well on this Tuesday morning, and we’re fading the Pirates because of it. The Padres are trading as +130 underdogs on the moneyline with Nick Pivetta on the mound, and that number is far too long—I make it closer to +105 in this spot. Skenes is a power pitcher with elite velocity, which is a problem for most lineups, but San Diego is built to handle it. The top of their order looks to ambush fastballs, and velocity doesn’t faze hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Skenes given the Padres’ offensive profile. On the other side, Pivetta’s high-spin fastball, which he locates at the top of the zone, can create real issues for Pittsburgh’s lineup—particularly for hitters like Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz in the middle of the order. When you factor in both matchups, this price feels inflated toward Pittsburgh, making San Diego the value side.

San Diego proved the weather excuse hollow by dropping five runs at PNC Park last night, and Pittsburgh's lineup isn't getting blanked twice. One crooked inning from either side cashes this ticket at no juice, and the number is below the key number seven, which makes this a good bet. 

 

Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet pitched to a sparkling 2.59 ERA last year. He's coming off an ugly start but that was against Houston who crush lefties and have a history of mashing against him. The 2025 AL Cy Young runner-up should bounce back with a better performance at home. Jacob Misiorowski and a strong Milwaukee bullpen will also shut down a Boston lineup that averages just 3.60 runs per game with an OPS of .682. Misiorowski has allowed three runs in 11 frames this season with an impressive .169 xBA. He's in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (40%) and whiff rate (42.2%), while Boston ranks 26th in strikeout rate (27.8%) and dead-last in whiff rate (33.3%).

The 2-8 Red Sox are favored because ace Garrett Crochet is on the mound but the difference in the starters isn't as big as you might think. Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski has allowed just three runs with 18 strikeouts through 11 innings. The analytics indicate those numbers are sustainable with the hard-throwing 24-year-old allowing an xBA of .167. He's in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (40%) and whiff rate (42.2%), while Boston ranks 26th in strikeout rate (27.8%) and last in whiff rate (33.3%). On offense, Milwaukee has a big edge with its lineup third in the majors in OPS (.813) and second in runs per game (6.80). With the Brewers boasting an 8-2 record, they have value as road dogs.

There’s screaming statistical correction coming for St. Louis lefty Matthew Liberatore, and the Washington lineup is set to serve it. Liberatore’s 1.64 ERA through two starts is saddled with a 5.28 xFIP and both his .216 BABIP and 100.0% strand rate are going to take hits tonight. And, while it might be a small sample, I’m still bullish about the Nationals pacing the majors in on-base percentage and ranking third in wOBA across 128 plate appearances against southpaws.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. In MLB, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Cavalli today.. Compared to last season, Alec Burleson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 44.4% to 55.6% this season.

Aaron Judge found his rhythm this weekend against the Marlins, batting 6-for-12 with 2+ total bases in each contest.

Judge feasts on sinkers and cutters, which Athletics starter Aaron Civale goes to over 60% of the time. The A's bullpen has also been brutal, ranking 30th in WHIP and 22nd in ERA.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Brent Rooker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Brent Rooker has been hot lately, posting a an 18.8% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) in the last 14 days.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto relies on his fastball/splitter combination. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. owns the highest OPS against the splitter in the Jays lineup and owns a career 1.000 OPS against him. 

With injuries and ineffectiveness blasting Toronto's rotation, the Blue Jays will need an extended outing from Kevin Gausman, who has cleared 17.5 outs in both starts so far this season.

Tarik Skubal has picked up right where he left off last season, allowing just one earned run through his first two starts (13 innings) this year.

Skubal will dominate again vs. the Twins, who are averaging a meager 1.67 runs in the first five innings and batting just .169 vs. southpaws.

It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Quinn Wolcott) calling pitches in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 10th-worst venue in the league for strikeouts.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Tarik Skubal will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Tarik Skubal in today's matchup.

Cole Young has made an immediate impact in his second season in the majors, collecting at least one hit in eight of 10 appearances.

Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has dealt with plenty of injuries over the past year and doesn't look up to speed just yet. He carries a bloated 11.42 ERA through two starts while allowing 6+ hits in both outings.

Corey Seager projects as the 6th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Corey Seager will have an edge today.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.

When assessing his home run talent, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mickey Moniak is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.

Baldwin has already failed me this year, but of course, he got hot after I bet on him with back-to-back games going deep. He is currently tied for the league lead with five homers. A price north of +500 in Anaheim, with decent hitting conditions, is putting him back in my trust tree. He is a Top-10 hitter in baseball right now who isn't striking out. There are three other Braves who have taken Yusei Kikuchi deep over their careers in Ronald Acuna (+360), Matt Olson (+390), and Ozzie Albies (+520), so there is plenty of info for Baldwin, who handles lefties just as well as righties. This might be a great spot for a two-man Atlanta round robin homer card with the two shortest odds making better than 20/1 odds. That's six combinations at doubles. At 0.15 units per bet, that would be a decent winner at less than a unit risk. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Jorge Soler is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 8th-best park in baseball for righty home runs.. Angel Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Jorge Soler will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

These are two quality starting pitchers, facing two lineups that have had their fair share of troubles — Philadelphia against lefties and San Francisco in general. The Giants have plated four or fewer runs in nine of their 11 games. 

Although the surface-level statistics may not show it, these are two quality bullpens. The Phillies have the best SIERA in relief (2.69), but a 4.17 ERA, and the Giants have a quality 3.81 SIERA but a grotesque 4.93 ERA.

Both of those bullpen ERAs are due for positive regression, creating value in the Under in the meantime.

Philadelphia has been anemic against left-handed pitching, posting a measly 59 wRC+ and .165 AVG in 112 at-bats. 

Robbie Ray performed admirably at Oracle Park last year (3.50 FIP) and has had plenty of juice in his first two starts (108 Stuff+), so he forecasts for a strong outing. 

Facing Christopher Sanchez is never fun, but he’s down one mph on his fastball and has been hittable (10th percentile average exit velocity, 14th percentile hard-hit rate). For as bad as San Francisco has been against RHP, the lineup is close to league-average against southpaws.