Milwaukee @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to lower offensive output. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the strongest out of every team in action today. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, compiling a .343 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .318 — a .025 discrepancy. By putting up a .275 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Jarren Duran is positioned in the 11th percentile for hitting ability. Since the start of last season, Jarren Duran's 5.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 23rd percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Blake Perkins has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Jake Bauers is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. In the majors, Fenway Park's RF fences are the shallowest. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to lower offensive output. Hitting from the same side that Kutter Crawford throws from, William Contreras encounters a tough challenge in today's matchup. William Contreras will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. William Contreras has been lucky this year, notching a .398 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .342 — a .056 difference. William Contreras's 4.6° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in the majors: 5th percentile.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP talent is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Ceddanne Rafaela has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to lower offensive output. Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Christian Yelich in today's game. Christian Yelich's speed has decreased this year. His 28.07 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.58 ft/sec now. Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Yelich has had positive variance on his side given the .057 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .342. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Christian Yelich ranks in just the 2nd percentile with a 3.3° launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in MLB.

Vaughn Grissom's batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Vaughn Grissom has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Connor Wong's BABIP skill is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Sal Frelick will have the handedness advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Jackson Chourio has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day.

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. In the majors, Fenway Park's RF fences are the shallowest. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to lower offensive output. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the strongest out of every team in action today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rafael Devers's true offensive talent to be a .360, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .029 gap between that mark and his actual .389 wOBA. Rafael Devers is in the 14th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (38.5% rate since the start of last season).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willy Adames is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Bryse Wilson throws from, David Hamilton will have an edge in today's matchup. David Hamilton has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage over Bryse Wilson in today's matchup. Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Brice Turang is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of the day. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Brice Turang will hold the platoon advantage over Kutter Crawford today.