Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The #10 field in the league for suppressing BABIP to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium. Today, Cody Bellinger is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.7% rate (85th percentile). Among every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Cody Bellinger today. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Cody Bellinger has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 109.2 mph (a reliable stat to measure power), grading out in the 21st percentile.

The #10 field in the league for suppressing BABIP to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium. Mike Tauchman has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Mike Tauchman will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Mike Tauchman has been lucky this year, posting a .345 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .309 — a .036 disparity.

Michael Busch is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. John King will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Busch in today's matchup. This year, Michael Busch's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to study power) is in the 86th percentile at 95.1 mph. Michael Busch is in the 97th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (21.5% rate this year). Michael Busch has compiled a .361 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Ian Happ is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will bat from his bad side (0) today against John King Ian Happ's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (25.2° in the last two weeks) is a significant increase over his 14.1° seasonal mark. Ian Happ's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 14.1% to 18.3%.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today. Patrick Wisdom's 19.4% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) is in the 98th percentile since the start of last season. Patrick Wisdom's 97.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable standard to assess power) is in the 99th percentile since the start of last season. Patrick Wisdom's 21.5° launch angle (an advanced metric to study a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in the game: 95th percentile. Patrick Wisdom has recorded a .338 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, checking in at the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Batting from the same side that John King throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will be at a disadvantage today.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Shota Imanaga. Among every team playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs. Dylan Carlson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. As it relates to his batting average, Dylan Carlson has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .206 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .261.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage over Javier Assad today. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Alec Burleson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Dansby Swanson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.9% up to 25%. Dansby Swanson has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 104.2-mph average in the past week to his seasonal average of 95.8-mph. Dansby Swanson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 44.3% on the season to 58.3% in the last 14 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Christopher Morel has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 95.4-mph.

Batting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP. Nolan Gorman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Nolan Gorman has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 16.5% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 7 days. Nolan Gorman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 18.5% to 24.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Batting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage today. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Brendan Donovan will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Miguel Amaya has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Willson Contreras will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Willson Contreras has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 94-mph in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miles Mastrobuoni in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. John King will hold the platoon advantage against Miles Mastrobuoni in today's game. Miles Mastrobuoni hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Miles Mastrobuoni's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 45.3% on the season to 54.5% in the last week's worth of games. Utilizing Statcast data, Miles Mastrobuoni is in the 83rd percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .268.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. Paul Goldschmidt will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year's 93.9-mph EV. Last season, Paul Goldschmidt had an average launch angle of 12.6° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 15.6°.

Nico Hoerner will have the handedness advantage against John King in today's game. In today's matchup, Nico Hoerner is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37% rate (91st percentile). Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nico Hoerner in today's matchup. Over the past 14 days, Nico Hoerner's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 89.1 mph to 86.8 mph. Nico Hoerner's launch angle lately (-7.6° over the last 7 days) is significantly lower than his 9.5° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.1% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. In the past 7 days, Seiya Suzuki's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94-mph over the course of the season to 97.6-mph lately. Seiya Suzuki's launch angle this season (17.2°) is significantly higher than his 10.6° angle last year.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand today. Lars Nootbaar may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage today.

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's matchup. By putting up a .273 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Masyn Winn has performed in the 82nd percentile. Placing in the 89th percentile, Masyn Winn sports a .337 BABIP this year.

Ivan Herrera's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today. Ivan Herrera will have the handedness advantage over Shota Imanaga today. Among every team playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.

Hitting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, Matt Carpenter will have an edge today. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Carpenter can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage today. Compared to last season, Matt Carpenter has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 35.2% to 46.9% this season. Posting a 1.99 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Matt Carpenter has displayed strong plate discipline, placing in the 80th percentile.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Last season, Nolan Arenado had an average launch angle of 12.2° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 15.8°. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, rising from 44.8% on the season to 56.1% in the past 14 days.