Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 4, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
MIN
@
NYY
Sat, Jul 4 • 1:35 PM ET
o9.5 (-125)
Both lineups have a clear team-level path to damage. Zebby Matthews allows too much lift, and the New York Yankees’ offense is built to punish that with an above-average fly-ball rate, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage. The Minnesota Twins can answer against Brendan Beck. The sample size is super small for the young arm, who makes just his second appearance of the season and first career start; however, he allowed some loud contact in his first outing with an average exit velocity of 97.8 mph. The Twins, who have a near-14 % barrel rate, can expose that. Play to 10.
NYY (-158)
After breaking through the slump yesterday, I'm more comfortable holding the New York Yankees to their regular-season priors. This profile looks like a matchup we’ve seen so often against New York: a starting pitcher with a high barrel rate problem that the Yankees expose. Matthews enters this matchup with one in the bottom 5th percentile of the MLB. A metric the Yankees still top the league in.
DET
@
TEX
Sat, Jul 4 • 4:05 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (Yes: -103)
Jack Flaherty enters in strong form, but both offenses have consistently produced early, with the Texas Rangers batting .274 in the first inning and the Detroit Tigers carrying a 115 wRC+ over its last six games. Kumar Rocker's first-inning struggles only strengthen the outlook for runs before the second inning begins.
TOR
@
SEA
Sat, Jul 4 • 4:10 PM ET
J.P. Crawford o0.5 Walks (+128)
Since the beginning of the 2025 campaign, J.P. Crawford has played 21 games against starting pitchers ranking in the 30th percentile or worse in K% and BB% against left-handed hitters.
Crawford drew at least one free pass in 15 of them, including four of five this year.
I see a lot of value in this matchup with Shane Bieber. Play to -115.
BAL
@
CIN
Sat, Jul 4 • 7:10 PM ET
TB
@
HOU
Sat, Jul 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+367)
Junior Caminero has gone deep in five of his last six games, backed by a .600 ISO and 55.5% hard hit rate. He faces Hunter Brown tonight, who's allowed a home run in each of his last two starts with a 42.9% hard hit rate against.
YRFI/NRFI (No: -131)
Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Brown have consistently silenced opponents early, combining dominant first-inning form with strong underlying metrics. Houston owns just a 78 wRC+ over the last two weeks, while Tampa has been scoreless in the first in consecutive games, making another quiet opening frame likely.
CHW
@
CLE
Sat, Jul 4 • 7:10 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (No: -121)
Parker Messick has yet to allow a first-inning run across 17 starts, while Sean Burke enters with a 3.02 xERA over his last two outings. With the Chicago White Sox batting just .213 in the opening frame and thr Cleveland Guardians posting an 82 wRC+ recently, another scoreless first inning stands out.
NYM
@
ATL
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:08 PM ET
u8.0 (-105)
Chris Sale has only allowed multiple runs only once over eights starts against teams 15th or worse in ISO vs. lefties. The Atlanta Braves possess power but they have hit just .225 against left-handed pitching since June 1. They’re not generating enough traffic to score in bulk. I see value on the Under and would play it to -115.
ATL (-170)
Chris Sale has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one start since April 6 and ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitcher Run Value. The Atlanta Braves will provide him support facing Sean Manaea, who sits in the 23rd percentile in Pitcher Run Value. Back the Braves to -185.
STL
@
CHC
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:08 PM ET
u8.0 (-110)
The Chicago Cubs don’t hit for average, sitting tied with the Angels for 23rd against right-handed pitching this season.
The St. Louis Cardinals don’t feature a ton of power against lefties – they’re 21st in ISO – and colder, wet conditions will only make it tougher on them against Shota Imanaga.
I expect a 4-3 type of game. Play the Under to -120.
CHC (-155)
Kyle Leahy has posted a 5.35 ERA and recorded an xERA of 5.50 or worse in six of his seven starts on the road.
The Chicago Cubs rank 10th in OPS and eighth in ISO against right-handed pitching over the last month. They’re certainly capable of doing damage against Leahy.
Back them to rebound Saturday. Play to -170.
PHI
@
KC
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:10 PM ET
SF
@
COL
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Rafael Devers is scorching hot, with four homers in his last six games and a 62.5% hard hit rate. He gets a great matchup tonight against Colorado's Tomoyuki Sugano, who's allowed 2.17 HR/9 over the past month. Robbie Ray takes the mound for San Francisco, riding a stellar 3.20 FIP with three straight scoreless starts
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+239)
Rafael Devers has four homers in his last six games, with a .600 ISO, 62.5% hard hit rate, and 25% barrel rate. He faces Tomoyuki Sugano, who's allowed 2.14 HR/9 over his last four starts with a 7.29 ERA, at Coors Field, where the ball carries well.
BOS
@
LAA
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:38 PM ET
Sonny Gray has been Boston's ace, boasting a 9-1 record and 2.48 xERA over his last five starts, cashing the Under in earned runs allowed in three of four. He faces a cold Angels lineup hitting just .214 with a 51 wRC+ this week, and he's racked up 20 strikeouts in his last two outings. The Red Sox face Sam Aldegheri, who has allowed 12 earned across his last three appearances.
MIL
@
AZ
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:40 PM ET
William Contreras o0.5 Runs (-105)
William Contreras has feasted on right-handed pitching this season, sporting a .294 average and .349 on base percentage.
Isolating right-handed starting pitchers who rank in the 30th percentile or worse in ERA, Contreras has scored in 11 of 15 games this season – tallying 13 in total.
Play to -130.
MIA
@
ATH
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:40 PM ET
SD
@
LAD
Sat, Jul 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-142)
Griffin Canning has allowed a whopping .312 average against lefties while ranking in the 16th percentile in xwOBA.
Freddie Freeman is a prime candidate to take advantage. The veteran lefty has recorded multiple H+R+R in 67.6% of his games when facing a starter who sits in the 50th percentile or worse in both xwOBA and OBP.
Play to -160.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a strong 2.22 ERA over the last month and a 2.08 ERA in two starts against San Diego this season, despite two recent rough outings. Freddie Freeman is batting .370 over his last seven games with a 41.7% hard hit rate, and faces a struggling Griffin Canning, who's allowed a 49.1% hard-hit rate this month.
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
Covers’ has more than 25 years of experience making smart MLB picks from the season’s first pitch to the World Series.
We find the best MLB odds and share our picks and baseball best bets for all the significant games of the baseball season right here on this page.
Our picks are researched and analyzed by experienced sports bettors looking for an edge to get the best value from their MLB betting.
Making smart MLB picks means looking beyond the favorites. Our free expert baseball picks will include a wide variety of bet types and markets.
Every day our baseball analysts look for quality baseball picks to share. You can expect well-researched picks on the money, run line, totals, player props, and much more.
Run lines are what other sports like football and basketball refer to as point spreads. Run lines even the odds between two teams, offering bettors as close to an even matchup as possible. Our analysts research vital stats, pitching matchups, injuries, and more to give you the best possible edge before making your MLB run line bets.
Covers’ analysts make MLB Over/Under picks throughout the baseball season. Betting on MLB Over/Unders means choosing whether you think the combined total runs scored in a game will be Over or Under a specific run total set by oddsmakers.
Betting on the MLB moneyline means picking which team will win a game outright. While less common than picking the run line or even a prop, our analysts will always look for high-value baseball moneyline picks if they feel it’s the best bet.
There’s always value in MLB props. Our team scours through game, team, and player props to try and find opportunity and value. From strikeouts to home runs, expect well-researched MLB prop picks from Covers.
Covers’ consensus MLB picks show you the odds and predictions that our vibrant community of bettors and players are making. Try our picks on with our free MLB contests for a chance at prizes and more.
If you’re ready to bet on MLB picks, you first need to find the right sportsbook. The best MLB betting sites offer secure banking, best odds, bonuses, and reliable customer service.
Covers’ staff of sports betting fans also offers a wide array of free picks for the NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA basketball, and NCAA football.
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
Established in 1995,
All Picks
NFL
NCAAF
MLB
NBA
NCAAB
NHL
CFL
WNBA
Golf
World Cup
