Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.287) implies that Christopher Morel has had some very poor luck this year with his .205 actual batting average. Christopher Morel's 16.2% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team playing today. Ivan Herrera will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Ivan Herrera's quickness has increased this year. His 26.72 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.45 ft/sec now.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Miguel Amaya's true offensive skill to be a .293, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .054 deviation between that mark and his actual .239 wOBA. Miguel Amaya's 18.6° launch angle (a reliable standard to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in baseball: 86th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Cody Bellinger is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the same side that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Cody Bellinger will be at a disadvantage in today's game. Cody Bellinger and his 16.7° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 90th percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Seiya Suzuki has posted a .365 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Patrick Wisdom's 19.4% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, Patrick Wisdom's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to study power) grades out in the 99th percentile at 97.4 mph. Patrick Wisdom's 21.5° launch angle (an advanced stat to study a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in baseball: 95th percentile. Sporting a .338 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Patrick Wisdom is positioned in the 76th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dansby Swanson's true offensive ability to be a .330, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .046 disparity between that figure and his actual .284 wOBA. Since the start of last season, Dansby Swanson's 11.1% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 75th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the 9th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Nico Hoerner will have the upper hand in today's game. Nico Hoerner has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of all the teams in action today. Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.

The #9 ballpark in baseball for suppressing base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium. Brendan Donovan has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Brendan Donovan's 5.5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) is in the 25th percentile since the start of last season. Brendan Donovan's maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to assess power) has been 109.1 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 19th percentile. Placing in the 19th percentile, Brendan Donovan has put up a .251 BABIP this year.

The #9 ballpark in baseball for suppressing base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium. Mike Tauchman has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of all the teams in action today. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mike Tauchman in today's game. Mike Tauchman has been lucky this year, notching a .345 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .309 — a .036 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nolan Gorman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jameson Taillon today. Nolan Gorman is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP. The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team playing today.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Matthew Liberatore will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Busch in today's matchup. Since the start of last season, Michael Busch's flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 80th percentile at 94.5 mph. Michael Busch has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 22° angle is among the highest in the league since the start of last season (93rd percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jameson Taillon in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar will probably have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team playing today. Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Sporting a .296 batting average this year, Masyn Winn has performed in the 89th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team playing today. Paul Goldschmidt will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 78th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Ian Happ is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Matthew Liberatore in this game. Utilizing Statcast data, Ian Happ grades out in the 79th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .346.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Nolan Arenado has had positive variance on his side this year. His .304 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .281.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Alec Burleson will have an advantage in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Nick Madrigal has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.