Milwaukee @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jarren Duran's true offensive skill to be a .318, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .025 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .343 wOBA. Using Statcast metrics, Jarren Duran is in the 11th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .209. Since the start of last season, Jarren Duran's 5.3% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 23rd percentile among his peers.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. Typically, hitters like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tanner Houck. Christian Yelich will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Christian Yelich's speed has fallen off this year. His 28.07 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.58 ft/sec now. Despite posting a .415 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Yelich has been lucky given the .073 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .342.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. Tanner Houck will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against William Contreras today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Houck's large platoon split. Extreme groundball hitters like William Contreras are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. William Contreras will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Despite posting a .402 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes William Contreras has experienced some positive variance given the .059 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .343.

12% of the time that Brice Turang has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. Brice Turang will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brice Turang's true offensive skill to be a .295, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .046 deviation between that figure and his actual .341 wOBA. Sporting a .276 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Brice Turang is positioned in the 8th percentile for offensive ability.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite posting a .383 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Rafael Devers has had some very good luck given the .023 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .360. Rafael Devers ranks in the 14th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (38.5% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In the league, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Rob Refsnyder will have the handedness advantage against Robert Gasser in today's game... and moreover, Gasser has a huge platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The 3rd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Considering Robert Gasser's huge platoon split, Tyler O'Neill will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Ceddanne Rafaela has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Despite posting a .247 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ceddanne Rafaela has suffered from bad luck given the .040 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .287.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Cooper in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Garrett Cooper has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Garrett Cooper has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Garrett Cooper will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Blake Perkins has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Vaughn Grissom has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Vaughn Grissom will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.276) provides evidence that Vaughn Grissom has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .212 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Connor Wong is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In the league, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Considering Robert Gasser's huge platoon split, Connor Wong will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

Jake Bauers is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jake Bauers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Houck has a large platoon split. Jake Bauers pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Jake Bauers usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

Sal Frelick's batting average ability is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Sal Frelick will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Sal Frelick's footspeed has improved this season. His 28.51 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.02 ft/sec now.

Jackson Chourio's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jackson Chourio is very quick, placing in the 93rd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.1 ft/sec this year.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Considering Robert Gasser's huge platoon split, Wilyer Abreu will be at a big disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today's game. Wilyer Abreu will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Willy Adames is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Willy Adames pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Batters such as Willy Adames with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Dominic Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Robert Gasser will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dominic Smith today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Gasser's huge platoon split. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Dominic Smith will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Robert Gasser will hold the platoon advantage over Reese McGuire in today's game... and it's a particular mismatch considering Gasser's huge platoon split. Reese McGuire will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Ranking in the 90th percentile, Reese McGuire has put up a .347 BABIP since the start of last season.

The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Considering Robert Gasser's huge platoon split, David Hamilton will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish today. David Hamilton has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. David Hamilton will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Gary Sanchez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.