The Rays are in a great spot at home, where they've racked up an MLB-best 38 wins this season.  MacKenzie Gore has struggled badly on the road, posting a 6.02 ERA away from home while allowing five earned runs in each of his road starts this month. Even if Gore survives early, he's backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA in July, while Tampa Bay's relief corps, who ranks among the month's best in both ERA and FIP, is well-positioned to keep the Rangers in check on a bullpen day.

The Under 8.5 fits with both offenses ice-cold entering the finale. Cleveland has produced a 45 wRC+ over its last seven games, while Cincinnati sits at 70. Neither lineup owns an ISO above .125 during that span, and both bullpens are throwing well, creating a clear lower-scoring path tonight overall.

Chris Sale continues to be absolutely lights out. In two starts since the All-Star break, the Braves SP owns a 0.96 FIP while walking just 0.69 hitters per nine innings. During that span, Sale has also limited opponents to a 3.4% barrel rate. He'll outduel Mets starter Christian Scott en route to a straight-up victory.

Davis Martin was shelled for nine runs and three home runs a month ago when he faced this Yankees lineup, but he still managed only four strikeouts. Since then, the surface numbers haven't been terrible, but the strikeouts have disappeared, with just 17 punchouts over his last 29+ innings. He has also benefited from facing some bottom-tier offenses during that stretch. Today, he is projected for a mid-80s pitch count, but I'm fading the projections that are leaning toward the Over. The market is moving the other way, and the leash remains the biggest concern. Martin's fastball velocity has been trending down since May, and he is outperforming his expected metrics. This was a pitcher who posted just a 6.56 K/9 over 140 innings last season, and the workload could be starting to catch up as his strikeout rate continues to slide.

I usually avoid backing teams coming off a ten run offensive outburst, which makes the St. Louis Cardinals an appealing side in this matchup. St. Louis draws Chicago Cubs left hander Matthew Boyd, whose Batters-Box profile has a poorly rated average hard contact and ground ball ratings, making this a prime opportunity for the offense to get back on track. On the other side, Dustin May has been outstanding at home, posting a 3.34 ERA, 3.06 xERA, 1.18 WHIP, and allowing just a 4% barrel rate. If May continues his dominant home form, the Cardinals should be in a strong position to cash as the moneyline winner.
 
 

Yordan Alvarez is in a prime spot to do damage against struggling right hander Grayson Rodriguez. Rather than laying heavy juice on his Over 1.5 total bases or hits, runs, and RBI prop, I prefer targeting his extra base hit markets. Rodriguez has been torched by left handed hitters this season, allowing a 10.53 ERA, 53% hard contact, and just a 27% ground ball rate, while surrendering a .364 expected batting average and .614 expected slugging percentage. Alvarez covers Rodriguez's entire pitch mix and has homered in 30% of his elite Batters-Box matchups this season.

Emerson Hancock has a lot of red flags masked by a 3.16 ERA. He ranks in the 40th percentile in xERA, the 21st in barrel rate, and the 16th in hard hit rate.

That is not ideal heading into a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lead the majors in OPS and rank second in hard hit percentage against right-handed pitching.

Back L.A. to win by multiple runs to +110.

Swanson has been one of the worst hitters in baseball this season with a .177 batting average, while ranking in the second percentile in xBA. Additionally, his hitting profile does not match up well at all against Cease, who has elite swing-and-miss stuff. 

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.