LIVE Bottom 2nd Jul 18
CHW 3 +134 o8.5
PIT 0 -146 u8.5
LIVE Bottom 2nd Jul 18
SD 1 -141 o8.5
WAS 0 +130 u8.5
LIVE Bottom 2nd Jul 18
LAA 1 +178 o9.0
PHI 1 -195 u9.0
LIVE Top 1st Jul 18
SF 0 +123 o8.5
TOR 0 -133 u8.5
LIVE Top 1st Jul 18
CIN 0 +134 o7.5
NYM 0 -145 u7.5
LIVE Top 1st Jul 18
ATH 0 +111 o7.5
CLE 0 -121 u7.5
LIVE Top 1st Jul 18
KC 0 -108 o7.5
MIA 0 -100 u7.5
NYY +116 o8.5
ATL -126 u8.5
BAL +114 o9.0
TB -123 u9.0
DET +101 o8.5
TEX -109 u8.5
MIN -165 o11.0
COL +151 u11.0
STL -103 o9.0
AZ -105 u9.0
HOU +120 o7.0
SEA -130 u7.0
MIL +170 o8.5
LAD -186 u8.5
Final Jul 18
BOS 1 +118 o7.5
CHC 4 -128 u7.5
Bally Sports Network, NESN

Detroit @ Boston props

Fenway Park

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Gio Urshela Total Hits Props • Detroit

Gio Urshela
G. Urshela
third base 3B • Detroit
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage over Gio Urshela today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Criswell's huge platoon split. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gio Urshela today. Gio Urshela's quickness has declined this year. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.32 ft/sec now.

Gio Urshela

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage over Gio Urshela today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Criswell's huge platoon split. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gio Urshela today. Gio Urshela's quickness has declined this year. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.32 ft/sec now.

Matt Vierling Total Hits Props • Detroit

Matt Vierling
M. Vierling
right outfield RF • Detroit
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds

15% of the time that Matt Vierling has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Because of Cooper Criswell's huge platoon split, Matt Vierling will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game. Matt Vierling will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.

Matt Vierling

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

15% of the time that Matt Vierling has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Because of Cooper Criswell's huge platoon split, Matt Vierling will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game. Matt Vierling will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.

Jarren Duran Total Hits Props • Boston

Jarren Duran
J. Duran
center outfield CF • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Jarren Duran's 5.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 23rd percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, Jarren Duran's flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 20th percentile at 90.3 mph. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Jarren Duran and his 11.7% rank in the 7th percentile since the start of last season.

Jarren Duran

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Jarren Duran's 5.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 23rd percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, Jarren Duran's flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 20th percentile at 90.3 mph. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Jarren Duran and his 11.7% rank in the 7th percentile since the start of last season.

Colt Keith Total Hits Props • Detroit

Colt Keith
C. Keith
second base 2B • Detroit
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

21% of the time that Colt Keith has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Colt Keith will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. With a .269 wOBA in the past two weeks' worth of games, Colt Keith has been struggling at the plate.

Colt Keith

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

21% of the time that Colt Keith has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Colt Keith will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. With a .269 wOBA in the past two weeks' worth of games, Colt Keith has been struggling at the plate.

Rafael Devers Total Hits Props • Boston

Rafael Devers
R. Devers
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rafael Devers's true offensive ability to be a .357, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .021 disparity between that figure and his actual .378 wOBA. Rafael Devers is in the 14th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (38.5% rate since the start of last season).

Rafael Devers

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rafael Devers's true offensive ability to be a .357, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .021 disparity between that figure and his actual .378 wOBA. Rafael Devers is in the 14th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (38.5% rate since the start of last season).

Wenceel Pérez Total Hits Props • Detroit

Wenceel Pérez
W. Pérez
second base 2B • Detroit
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Wenceel Perez in today's matchup. Despite posting a .331 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Wenceel Perez has experienced some positive variance given the .027 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .304.

Wenceel Pérez

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Wenceel Perez in today's matchup. Despite posting a .331 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Wenceel Perez has experienced some positive variance given the .027 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .304.

Riley Greene Total Hits Props • Detroit

Riley Greene
R. Greene
center outfield CF • Detroit
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Riley Greene will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.

Riley Greene

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Riley Greene will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.

Vaughn Grissom Total Hits Props • Boston

Vaughn Grissom
V. Grissom
second base 2B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Vaughn Grissom has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Vaughn Grissom will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Vaughn Grissom

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Vaughn Grissom has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Vaughn Grissom will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Wilyer Abreu Total Hits Props • Boston

Wilyer Abreu
W. Abreu
center outfield CF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences in the league. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Reese Olson in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Wilyer Abreu

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences in the league. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Reese Olson in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Rob Refsnyder Total Hits Props • Boston

Rob Refsnyder
R. Refsnyder
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Rob Refsnyder

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Ceddanne Rafaela Total Hits Props • Boston

Ceddanne Rafaela
C. Rafaela
center outfield CF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ceddanne Rafaela has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Ceddanne Rafaela

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ceddanne Rafaela has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Connor Wong Total Hits Props • Boston

Connor Wong
C. Wong
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

Connor Wong's BABIP talent is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Connor Wong

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Connor Wong's BABIP talent is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Reese McGuire Total Hits Props • Boston

Reese McGuire
R. McGuire
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences in the league. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage over Reese Olson in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Reese McGuire will hold that advantage in today's game.

Reese McGuire

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences in the league. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage over Reese Olson in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Reese McGuire will hold that advantage in today's game.

Spencer Torkelson Total Hits Props • Detroit

Spencer Torkelson
S. Torkelson
first base 1B • Detroit
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Despite posting a .268 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Spencer Torkelson has had some very poor luck given the .056 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324. Spencer Torkelson has put up a .350 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Spencer Torkelson

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Despite posting a .268 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Spencer Torkelson has had some very poor luck given the .056 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324. Spencer Torkelson has put up a .350 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Enmanuel Valdez Total Hits Props • Boston

Enmanuel Valdez
E. Valdez
second base 2B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds

Enmanuel Valdez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Enmanuel Valdez will have the handedness advantage over Reese Olson in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Enmanuel Valdez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Enmanuel Valdez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Enmanuel Valdez will have the handedness advantage over Reese Olson in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Jake Rogers Total Hits Props • Detroit

Jake Rogers
J. Rogers
catcher C • Detroit
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds

Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jake Rogers pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Since the start of last season, Jake Rogers's 12% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 81st percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, Jake Rogers's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 92nd percentile at 95.5 mph. Jake Rogers is in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (20.2% rate since the start of last season).

Jake Rogers

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jake Rogers pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Since the start of last season, Jake Rogers's 12% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 81st percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, Jake Rogers's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 92nd percentile at 95.5 mph. Jake Rogers is in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (20.2% rate since the start of last season).

Javier Baez Total Hits Props • Detroit

Javier Baez
J. Baez
shortstop SS • Detroit
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Javier Baez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.283) may lead us to conclude that Javier Baez has suffered from bad luck this year with his .194 actual batting average.

Javier Baez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Javier Baez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.283) may lead us to conclude that Javier Baez has suffered from bad luck this year with his .194 actual batting average.

Zach McKinstry Total Hits Props • Detroit

Zach McKinstry
Z. McKinstry
right outfield RF • Detroit
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Because of Cooper Criswell's huge platoon split, Zach McKinstry will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, Zach McKinstry has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .223 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .260. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Zach McKinstry ranks in the 88th percentile with a 17.7° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in MLB.

Zach McKinstry

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Because of Cooper Criswell's huge platoon split, Zach McKinstry will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, Zach McKinstry has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .223 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .260. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Zach McKinstry ranks in the 88th percentile with a 17.7° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in MLB.

David Hamilton Total Hits Props • Boston

David Hamilton
D. Hamilton
second base 2B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. David Hamilton will have the handedness advantage over Reese Olson in today's game. David Hamilton has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. David Hamilton will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

David Hamilton

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. David Hamilton will have the handedness advantage over Reese Olson in today's game. David Hamilton has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. David Hamilton will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Dominic Smith Total Hits Props • Boston

Dominic Smith
D. Smith
first base 1B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

Dominic Smith is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage against Reese Olson today. Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Dominic Smith

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Dominic Smith is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage against Reese Olson today. Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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