Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 1, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
MIA
@
COL
Tue, Jun 30 • 8:40 PM ET
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (-122)
Hunter Goodman has been one of baseball's hottest hitters, making his over on total bases worth backing against Eury Perez. Goodman has posted a 33.33% barrel rate and 66.67% hard hit rate over his last five games, while matching up well against Perez's entire pitch mix with nearly 64% arsenal coverage. Perez's fastball is his lone above average offering, and Goodman has crushed fastballs all season. The Marlins right hander has also struggled to limit hard contact and barrels against right handed hitters. I like Goodman's chances to rack up extra bases, with his double and home run props offering additional value.
o11.5 (+105)
After combining for 17 runs on Monday, the Marlins and Rockies look set up for another high-scoring game at Coors Field. Both offenses have been rolling, ranking third and fifth in OPS over the past two weeks. Colorado hands the ball to Tanner Gordon, who owns a 6.37 ERA and a 9.92 mark at home, while Miami counters with Eury Perez and his 6.04 ERA in six road starts. Add in a Rockies bullpen that ranks 29th in home ERA and a 10.3 mph wind blowing out, and the conditions are ripe for plenty of offense.
LAA
@
SEA
Tue, Jun 30 • 9:40 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (No: -126)
LAD
@
ATH
Tue, Jun 30 • 9:40 PM ET
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+225)
Shea Langeliers is back in a strong matchup against a vulnerable left hander, and the process remains intact despite recent results. He draws elite arsenal coverage against Justin Wrobleski, handling over 93% of the pitch mix, setting him up well in this spot. Wrobleski has struggled with hard contact in recent outings, allowing elevated barrel rates, consistent hard hit contact, and strong underlying metrics to right handed hitters over his last stretch. The contact profile includes high expected batting averages, slugging, and wOBA marks. The numbers continue to point towards a long ball. Run it back!
o10.5 (-121)
Wrobleski lacks a bat-missing floor (17.8% Whiff%), while Springs possesses an extreme flyball profile (13th percentile groundball rate). Combined with an Athletics bullpen surrendering a massive 2.55 HR/9 over the last two weeks, routine flyballs turn into cheap home runs. These two clubs light up the scoreboard whenever they meet and are 9-1 to the Over in their past 10 meetings. Hammer the Over to 11 runs and -130.
SF
@
AZ
Tue, Jun 30 • 9:40 PM ET
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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