St. Louis @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Among all stadiums, Minute Maid Park's left field fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Jake Meyers will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Jake Meyers grades out in the 99th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (21.4% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today. Brendan Donovan will have the handedness advantage over Spencer Arrighetti today. Brendan Donovan has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Using Statcast metrics, Brendan Donovan is in the 94th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .370.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Nolan Arenado has had positive variance on his side this year. His .298 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .278. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Nolan Arenado ranks in the 84th percentile with a 16.9° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in the majors.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Among all stadiums, Minute Maid Park's left field fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.333) may lead us to conclude that Paul Goldschmidt has had bad variance on his side this year with his .290 actual wOBA. Paul Goldschmidt's 12.1% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) ranks in the 82nd percentile since the start of last season.

Alec Burleson has been pulled from the game early 13% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Alec Burleson really struggles to hit the ball hard. If you were to take the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (105.6 mph) rank him among MLB's worst: in the 22nd percentile since the start of last season.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Jose Altuve faces a tough challenge in today's game. Out of every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Ranked in the 7th percentile, Jose Altuve's average exit velocity of 86 mph ranks among the lowest in MLB since the start of last season.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Andre Pallante will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alex Bregman in today's matchup. Alex Bregman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 8th-deepest CF fences today. Out of every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Andre Pallante will hold the platoon advantage over Yainer Diaz today. Yainer Diaz has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Jeremy Pena has a tough challenge today. Typically, batters like Jeremy Pena who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante. Out of every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Spencer Arrighetti in today's game. Since the start of last season, Nolan Gorman's 16.7% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 98th percentile among his peers. Nolan Gorman's 95.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 93rd percentile since the start of last season.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the majors. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have the upper hand today. Yordan Alvarez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Yordan Alvarez's true offensive talent to be a .403, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .039 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .364 wOBA.

Posting a .351 BABIP this year, Masyn Winn is positioned in the 93rd percentile.

Ivan Herrera's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ivan Herrera's footspeed has improved this year. His 26.72 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.39 ft/sec now. Sporting a .386 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Ivan Herrera grades out in the 98th percentile for hitting ability. Ivan Herrera has compiled a .276 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Launch angles in the range of -4° to 26° tend to become base hits at a high rate; Ivan Herrera and his 65.4% since the start of last season rank in the 98th percentile by this measure.

Matt Carpenter will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Arrighetti today. Since the start of last season, Matt Carpenter's 11.2% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 80th percentile among his peers. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Matt Carpenter ranks in the 97th percentile with a 23.5° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in MLB. When it comes to plate discipline, Matt Carpenter's talent is quite impressive, posting a 1.81 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 86th percentile.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jose Abreu will hold that advantage in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, Jose Abreu has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .220 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .262. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Jose Abreu has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.3 mph (a reliable stat to assess power), ranking in the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Chas McCormick will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Despite posting a .234 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Chas McCormick has had bad variance on his side given the .076 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310. Utilizing Statcast data, Chas McCormick is in the 88th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .356. Chas McCormick's 11.1% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) is in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.

Victor Caratini will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Ranked in the 87th percentile, Victor Caratini has one of the highest average exit velocities in the league since the start of last season (91.3-mph).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, Mauricio Dubon is in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .293. With a .296 batting average this year, Mauricio Dubon finds himself in the 92nd percentile.