
Blue Jays vs Mariners Home Run Picks & Best Bets for ALCS Game 4
Total PicksLAD 582, PIT 274
According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 7th-most favorable for hitting of the day. Mookie Betts pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 83rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Mookie Betts will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.
PNC Park has the 8th-deepest fences among all major league stadiums — generally bad for HRs. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 7th-most favorable for hitting of the day. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Teoscar Hernandez in today's game.
According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 7th-most favorable for hitting of the day. Hitting from the same side that Bailey Falter throws from, Freddie Freeman will be in a tough position today. In today's game, Freddie Freeman is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.2% rate (85th percentile). Freddie Freeman will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Freddie Freeman's quickness has fallen off this year. His 26.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.17 ft/sec now.
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Walker Buehler in this game. Bryan Reynolds will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Andrew McCutchen will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Andrew McCutchen has compiled a .352 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 82nd percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Kike Hernandez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Out of all the teams today, the 11th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. In terms of his batting average, Kike Hernandez has experienced some negative variance this year. His .198 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edward Olivares in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Edward Olivares is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Edward Olivares will hold that advantage in today's game.
PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an edge today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's game. Rowdy Tellez's footspeed has increased this year. His 23.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.29 ft/sec now. Rowdy Tellez has been unlucky this year, putting up a .228 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .087 gap.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Miguel Vargas will have an advantage in today's matchup. Out of all the teams today, the 11th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Miguel Vargas has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .199 BA is considerably lower than his .226 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage today.
PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Austin Barnes will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter in today's game. Out of all the teams today, the 11th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Joe in the 76th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Connor Joe is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Connor Joe will hold that advantage today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Ke'Bryan Hayes will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.280) implies that Ke'Bryan Hayes has had bad variance on his side this year with his .248 actual batting average.
Andy Pages is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Andy Pages will have an edge today. Out of all the teams today, the 11th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Andy Pages is notably fast, checking in at the 81st percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.38 ft/sec this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Miguel Rojas will have the upper hand in today's game. Out of all the teams today, the 11th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.296) may lead us to conclude that Miguel Rojas has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .242 actual batting average.
Chris Taylor has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.
Shohei Ohtani has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.
Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
---|---|---|---|
1 | boedad | 6-4-0 | +18965 |
2 | Alexandr1966 | 4-6-0 | +16740 |
3 | OMREBEL02 | 3-7-0 | +16390 |
4 | mikers | 5-5-0 | +15555 |
5 | cjrissgoodin | 9-1-0 | +15310 |
6 | papa1963 | 7-3-0 | +14529 |
7 | glen2003 | 6-4-0 | +14375 |
8 | lusvegasluva | 3-7-0 | +14310 |
9 | katscore | 7-3-0 | +12965 |
10 | vitom | 6-4-0 | +12305 |
All Dodgers Money Leaders |
Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
---|---|---|---|
1 | CJONES1068 | 4-5-1 | +24865 |
2 | ThorsHammer | 5-5-0 | +20390 |
3 | halfricanknight | 4-6-0 | +18418 |
4 | MLBFan8848 | 6-3-1 | +18105 |
5 | samua | 6-3-1 | +16845 |
6 | chefsloan7 | 5-4-1 | +16115 |
7 | braustin1 | 5-5-0 | +15215 |
8 | IronCity1 | 5-4-1 | +15140 |
9 | jnc3lb | 7-2-1 | +13730 |
10 | uradonkey | 5-5-0 | +13455 |
All Pirates Money Leaders |