Boston @ Chicago Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Enmanuel Valdez in the 14th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. 26% of the time that Enmanuel Valdez has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pinch hit for. The #9 field in the game for suppressing base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 8th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Enmanuel Valdez in today's game.

The #9 field in the game for suppressing base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 8th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jarren Duran today. In notching a .271 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Jarren Duran has performed in the 9th percentile for hitting ability. Jarren Duran's 5.3% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) grades out in the 23rd percentile since the start of last season.

The #9 field in the game for suppressing base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 8th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Rafael Devers has been lucky this year, compiling a .396 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .360 — a .036 deviation. Rafael Devers grades out in the 14th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (38.5% rate since the start of last season).

The #9 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 8th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Jake Woodford will have the handedness advantage over Rob Refsnyder in today's game... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Woodford's large platoon split. Rob Refsnyder will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rob Refsnyder's true offensive talent to be a .324, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .074 gap between that mark and his actual .398 wOBA.

Luis Robert's BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Robert is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Luis Robert pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Luis Robert will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for dingers. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Tyler O'Neill's 12.5% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) is in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for dingers. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. In the last two weeks, Connor Wong has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .361. Ranking in the 79th percentile, the hardest ball Connor Wong has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.6 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Lenyn Sosa has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Lenyn Sosa will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Lenyn Sosa has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .205 BA is a good deal lower than his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Lenyn Sosa is in the 79th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (46.3% rate since the start of last season).

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck today... and moreover, Houck has a large platoon split. Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Because of Jake Woodford's large platoon split, David Hamilton will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. David Hamilton has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 79th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Andrew Vaughn has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Andrew Vaughn will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for dingers. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Ceddanne Rafaela is very quick, ranking in the 93rd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.07 ft/sec this year.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Paul DeJong pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Paul DeJong tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage today. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Paul DeJong ranks in the 84th percentile with a 16.9° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in Major League Baseball.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Nicky Lopez will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Nicky Lopez has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. Nicky Lopez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for dingers. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Korey Lee will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for dingers. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Oscar Colas will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Houck in today's game... and even better, Houck has a large platoon split. Oscar Colas will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Oscar Colas has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .213 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .235 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage over Jake Woodford in today's game... and the cherry on top, Woodford has a large platoon split. Dominic Smith has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Dominic Smith and his 15.9° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 85th percentile, among the highest in baseball since the start of last season. When it comes to plate discipline, Dominic Smith's talent is quite strong, putting up a 1.92 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 79th percentile.

Corey Julks is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for dingers. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Corey Julks will hold that advantage in today's game. Corey Julks is in the 97th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (50.2% rate since the start of last season).

Martin Maldonado has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Reese McGuire has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.