MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Brent Rooker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Truist Park projects as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Given Chris Sale's huge platoon split, Brent Rooker will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. Truist Park projects as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Shea Langeliers will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Sale in today's game... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split.

Taylor Ward brings legit 36-HR power to the leadoff spot for the Baltimore Orioles, giving him a strong chance at five plate appearances this afternoon. He faces Nathan Eovaldi, a familiar matchup with 20 career at-bats against him. Eovaldi allowed two home runs in his first start and projects to go over his 2.5 earned runs prop, according to THE BAT, which makes Ward’s HR price around +425. Ward hasn’t gone deep yet, but he’s coming off a four-hit game, carrying a 49% fly-ball rate, and gets ideal conditions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards with 80-degree weather and wind blowing out to center.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Taylor Ward is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Taylor Ward has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Taylor Ward generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Paul Skenes to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.. The weather report projects the 4th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Paul Skenes will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

As it relates to his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the best park in the majors for LHB home runs.. The weather report projects the 4th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Paul Skenes in this game.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 4th-best home run hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Cavalli throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his BABIP ability.. James Wood is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. James Wood has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .252 figure is a good deal lower than his .279 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

I’m only making this a half-unit wager. Kyle Freeland is a line-drive contact pitcher who gets hit hard by righties, and the best line drive right-handed power hitter on the Jays is Vladdy, who's certainly primed to hit his first homer of the season.

When Kevin Gausman is locating his split-finger fastball, he's one of the most unhittable pitchers in all of baseball. This was the case last week when he rang up 11 A’s batters on Opening Night, and I’m expecting a similar outcome this afternoon against the Colorado Rockies. 

Alcantara allowed just one unearned run on four hits while striking out five in a matchup against the Rockies, and today he gets to face one of the more free-swinging teams in baseball in the White Sox. Chicago has the second-highest strikeout rate at 35.9%.

Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Munetaka Murakami will have an edge in today's matchup.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.. Juan Soto's 17.6% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

Alec Burleson's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

It is anticipated that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (CB Bucknor) behind the plate in today's game.. The weather report calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Drew Rasmussen's 95.2-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 81st percentile among all starters.. Drew Rasmussen's 2482-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 90th percentile among all SPs.. Drew Rasmussen has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 7.49 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.03 — a 0.54 K/9 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Since the start of last season, Junior Caminero's 13.8% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 88th percentile among his peers.

The Boston Red Sox are off to a rough start to begin the season, and I think there’s a tendency to assume that when your ace, Garrett Crochet, takes the mound, it’s an automatic win and everything will be fine. That narrative has created an edge in the market that we can exploit. The Astros are listed as +130 underdogs on the moneyline, but I think they should be closer to +105. Mike Burrows is a better pitcher than his 7.98 ERA suggests—he simply got BABIP’d to death in his first outing. On the other side, Crochet’s 0.00 ERA stands out compared to Burrows’ inflated number, but this is still a difficult matchup for him. The Astros can roll out an almost entirely right-handed lineup, with the lone lefty being Yordan Alvarez—who actually hits left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching despite batting from the left side.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 4th-best batter in the game.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #6 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yusei Kikuchi to throw 98 pitches in today's outing (most of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. David Rackley grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be behind the plate in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Wrigley Field as the 9th-worst park in Major League Baseball for batting average.. The 5th-deepest right field fences among all parks are found in Wrigley Field.. The league's 7th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Wrigley Field.

When assessing his home run talent, Jorge Soler ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jorge Soler is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. Jorge Soler will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd today.. Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in 26 of 32 starts since the beginning of last year, so I'm anticipating the lefty doing the heavy lifting to keep this total Under the number this afternoon.

Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen’s ERA and xFIP climbed in each of the past three seasons ahead of him allowing four runs on five hits and a pair of walks through four frames on Opening Day, so I’m anticipating a long season ahead for the veteran righty. It’s just the opposite for Detroit ace Tarik Skubal, with the star southpaw ranking second among qualified starters in ERA and xFIP since the beginning of the 2024 campaign. The Arizona offense is also off to a ho-hum start with a 23rd-ranked xwOBA.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Matt Chapman is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

The pitching matchup between Schlittler and George Kirby is nothing short of excellent. 

Schlittler impressed as a rookie and seems poised for a big sophomore campaign, holding a struggling Giants offense to just one baserunner in his season opening start.

While more can be expected from the Mariners, it shouldn’t be a field day for their offense.

Meanwhile, Kirby pitched six innings of one-run ball against the Guardians in his 2026 debut. That’s par for the course – he has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 home games.

The Mariners are hitting .205 to start the year but don’t let that fool you: there is a good offense in there.

They rank 15th in wOBA, 11th in line drive percentage, 10th in wRC+, and 9th in walk rate. There are some good signs beneath the surface.

Not to mention, there are sleeping giants offensively. Josh Naylor (.043), Julio Rodriguez (.093), and Cal Raleigh (.143) haven’t hit anywhere close to their normal averages and the Mariners are still 3-3.

Cam Schlittler is an excellent young pitcher but it’ll be tough to keep these guys down much longer. Back Seattle on the moneyline.

These teams have combined for a 7-1 record to the Under to start the season. Both lineups have struggled, ranking 23rd and 28th in OPS. Joe Ryan has consistently handled Royals hitters, holding them to a .582 OPS over 110 combined at-bats. On the other side, Noah Cameron faces a Twins lineup posting a brutal .458 OPS vs lefties and dominated them last year with a 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings of work.

The Royals have only scored nine times through the first four games of the season, and the Twins have only scored 12 runs through their own four games. So, add potential rain to both teams respectively ranking 26th and 23rd in runs per game in 2025, and I like this total to go Under the number tonight. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for hitters.. Teoscar Hernandez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 11th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Dodger Stadium grades out as the #2 venue in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for hitters.