Atlanta @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 5th-worst venue in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. Marcell Ozuna will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Marcell Ozuna's speed has declined this year. His 26.37 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.14 ft/sec now. Despite posting a .422 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has had some very good luck given the .080 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .342.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 5th-worst venue in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. Ozzie Albies will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. This season, there has been a decline in Ozzie Albies's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.54 ft/sec last year to 26.94 ft/sec currently. Ozzie Albies has been very bad at hitting the ball to all fields (a key talent for batting average), grading out in the 2nd percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 5th-worst venue in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. Austin Riley will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest right field fences in MLB. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarred Kelenic stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Since the start of last season, Jarred Kelenic has an average exit velocity of 90.8 mph, which is one of the best in MLB at the 79th percentile.

Nationals Park profiles as the #26 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Luis Garcia's 4.4° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in the game: 5th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Jacob Young has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jacob Young will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Sporting a .285 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jacob Young grades out in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jesse Winker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest right field fences in MLB. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Batting from the same side that Max Fried throws from, Jesse Winker will have a tough matchup in today's matchup.

Michael Harris II's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Michael Harris II is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP. Michael Harris II has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 11th-shallowest LF fences today. Michael Harris II has been unlucky this year, compiling a .280 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .045 discrepancy.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will bat from his worse side (0) today against Max Fried Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage today. Despite posting a .229 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Keibert Ruiz has experienced some negative variance given the .069 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .298.

CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Max Fried will have the handedness advantage against CJ Abrams in today's matchup. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. CJ Abrams will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Max Fried will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Gallo in today's matchup. Joey Gallo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Joey Gallo will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joey Gallo's true offensive ability to be a .302, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .031 disparity between that figure and his actual .271 wOBA.

Lane Thomas is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Lane Thomas pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 11th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Lane Thomas will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Lane Thomas's true offensive skill to be a .314, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .041 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .273 wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Matt Olson ranks as the 15th-best batter in the majors. Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Matt Olson pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Eddie Rosario is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest right field fences in MLB. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Hitting from the same side that Max Fried throws from, Eddie Rosario has a tough challenge in today's game. Eddie Rosario will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Orlando Arcia will have the handedness advantage against DJ Herz in today's matchup. Orlando Arcia pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 11th-shallowest LF fences today. Orlando Arcia has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .266 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .342 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest left field fences among all major league parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Nick Senzel will hold that advantage in today's game. Grading out in the 83rd percentile, Nick Senzel has posted a .347 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year. Nick Senzel has shown strong plate discipline this year, ranking in the 89th percentile with a 1.52 K/BB rate.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Travis d'Arnaud will have the handedness advantage against DJ Herz today. Travis d'Arnaud has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Since the start of last season, Travis d'Arnaud has an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, which ranks among the best in baseball at the 76th percentile. Travis d'Arnaud grades out in the 81st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (17.9% rate since the start of last season).

Adam Duvall has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 84°. Adam Duvall will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against DJ Herz today. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 11th-shallowest LF fences today. Adam Duvall's 12.6% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) ranks in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.