Boston @ Chicago Picks & Props

The #8 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the least humidity on the slate at 33%. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 19.6-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, notching a .335 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .318 — a .017 deviation.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. Bobby Dalbec's footspeed has gotten better this season. His 28.08 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.6 ft/sec now. Bobby Dalbec has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .236 figure is deflated compared to his .317 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Korey Lee will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Rob Refsnyder has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .393. Based on Statcast data, Rob Refsnyder grades out in the 83rd percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .342.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Connor Wong has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .369. Connor Wong's maximum exit velocity (a reliable stat to evaluate power) has been 113.6 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. Ceddanne Rafaela is very athletic, ranking in the 92nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29 ft/sec this year.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Flexen today.

Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage today.

Lenyn Sosa has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Lenyn Sosa will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Lenyn Sosa has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .209 figure is a fair amount lower than his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Lenyn Sosa grades out in the 79th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (46.3% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Andrew Vaughn has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Andrew Vaughn will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Luis Robert is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. Luis Robert pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Luis Robert will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Dominic Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, Dominic Smith will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Dominic Smith has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Dominic Smith has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 15.9° figure is among the highest in the league since the start of last season (85th percentile). Dominic Smith has exhibited good plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile with a 1.88 K/BB rate.

Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Nicky Lopez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Kelly in today's game. Nicky Lopez has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Nicky Lopez will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Flexen in today's game. David Hamilton has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Kelly throws from, Oscar Colas will have an edge today. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Oscar Colas will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.276) may lead us to conclude that Oscar Colas has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .251 actual wOBA.

Enmanuel Valdez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Despite posting a .246 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Enmanuel Valdez has had bad variance on his side given the .037 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .283. Enmanuel Valdez's 10.5% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) is in the 76th percentile since the start of last season.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Kelly in today's game. Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today's game.

Corey Julks is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Corey Julks will hold that advantage in today's game. Corey Julks ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (50.2% rate since the start of last season).

Paul DeJong pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage in today's game. Paul DeJong's 16.9° launch angle (an advanced standard to study a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in baseball: 84th percentile.

Jamie Westbrook has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Rafael Devers has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.