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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 18, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+163 
|
o7.5 -132 
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
5.44 |
-185 
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +120 
|
Kansas City
- Over is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dobnaks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 7-0 in Royals last 7 games following a loss.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Skenes' last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+154)
o0.5+154
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.52 |
-125
|
o8.5 -112
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.46 |
+110
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -145
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 overall.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in Burns' last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Reds last 5 overall.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Reds last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+174)
o0.5+188
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.08 |
-138
|
o8.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.25 |
+120
|
u8.5 -107
|
+1.5 -140
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. American League East.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games.
Baltimore
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Andrew Vaughn o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1200)
o0.5+1200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.27 |
+108
|
o7.0 -110
|
+1.5 -200 
|
|
3.73 |
-122
|
u7.5 -124 
|
-1.5 +175
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Seymours last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+350)
o0.5+350
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
+166
|
o8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
4.98 |
-190
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +115
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-1 in Barnetts last 4 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Barnetts last 4 road starts.
- Over is 8-2 in last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 overall.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Daniel Espino o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-115)
o1.5-115
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
+102
|
o8.5 -108
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.68 |
-114
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +165
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 road games.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
NY Mets
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Thorntons last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+145)
o1.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.92 |
+115
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.68 |
-130
|
u8.5 -103
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 on grass.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in White Sox last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+259)
o0.5+259
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
-135
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
3.65 |
+120
|
u8.5 -146
|
+1.5 -145
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Ceases last 7 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Ceases last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Texas
- Over is 4-0 in Rockers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Rockers last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+270)
o1.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.93 |
-177
|
o10.5 -109
|
-1.5 -114
|
|
5.45 |
+156
|
u10.5 -106
|
+1.5 +100
|
Seattle
- Mariners are 6-0 in Woos last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Mariners are 5-0 in Woos last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 5-0 in Woos last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Over is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games a home underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0-2 in Rockies last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
-116
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +144
|
|
4.71 |
+110
|
u8.5 -117
|
+1.5 -157
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts on grass.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Astros last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Christian Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.17 |
-102
|
o7.0 -167
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.18 |
-112
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +180
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 8-0 in Cavallis last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Leahys last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 vs. National League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
-124
|
o7.5 -128
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.80 |
+108
|
u8.5 -121
|
+1.5 -160
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0-2 in Prielipps last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 2-0-3 in Prielipps last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 3-0-3 in Prielipps last 6 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Prielipps last 4 starts vs. American League West.
LA Angels
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 6-1 in Angels last 7 home games.
- Under is 10-1 in Angels last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Grayson Rodriguez o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+375)
o4.5-110
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.76 |
+168
|
o7.0 -162
|
+3.5 -334
|
|
4.43 |
-193
|
u7.5 -105
|
-3.5 +260
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Marlins last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 games following a win.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games following a win.
- Padres are 6-0 in Pivettas last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.06 |
-125
|
o7.0 -186
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
5.01 |
+115
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -154
|
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Coles last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
Arizona
- Under is 5-0 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.64 |
+250
|
o7.5 -125
|
+2.5 -150
|
|
5.30 |
-300
|
u8.5 -130
|
-2.5 +110
|
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 vs. National League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Glasnows last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Jonah Cox o0.5 Total RBIs (+285)
o0.5+350
KC
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Randy Dobnak in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz has strong power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (30.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Dobnak doesn't generate many whiffs (7th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 96.7-mph over the past 7 days.. Despite posting a .343 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bobby Witt Jr. has had bad variance on his side given the .038 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .381.. Based on Statcast data, Bobby Witt Jr. is in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .301.
CHC
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+544)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Let's take Alex Bregman at 6.44x with a fair price of 5.8x. It might look like a tough matchup against Chase Burns, but the Cincinnati pitcher has thrown three innings in back-to-back starts and is getting scaled back as he approaches a career high in innings pitched. These prices are acting like Burns will go 18 outs, and that's not true. The Reds' bullpen was busy yesterday after Brady Singer stunk up the joint, and the middle innings could be tee time for the Cubs at one of the best hitting settings in baseball today. Bregman has hit 17 bombs already this second half, and only three other players can say they have more taters than Bregman in the second half.
Moneyline
CHC (-126)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
The Reds were a sleepy afternoon team yesterday, with an offense that struggled to take advantage of good hitting conditions and poor starting pitching. Now they face another legit team coming off rest, and Clay Holmes has been great this year. He's had three bad starts in 16 all year, and in the other 13, he's allowed two or fewer runs. Chase Burns can be a tough matchup, but he's thrown three innings in back-to-back starts and is being scaled back, while the Reds' middle bullpen was used yesterday. Chicago could own the middle-to-late innings and should be closer to a 58-59% favorite, with Burns likely only covering a third of the game.
MIL
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jake Bauers o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jake Bauers ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jake Bauers is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for hitting on the slate today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jake Bauers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.1-mph over the course of the season to 98.1-mph in recent games.
Total Bases
Garrett Mitchell o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
Projection 1.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP talent, Garrett Mitchell is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Garrett Mitchell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for hitting on the slate today.. Garrett Mitchell has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.4-mph mark.. Over the last two weeks, Garrett Mitchell's 68% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 51.8%.
BOS
@
TB
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (+107)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
For the second day in a row, give me the Boston Red Sox, who are trading at 48% on Polymarket, but I price them closer to a 51% favorite against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox came through with a green checkmark on Thursday against the Texas Rangers, so we'll jump on the bandwagon for one more day. The Rays can put seven right-handed bats in the lineup, with their two most dangerous hitters, Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero, both swinging from that side. However, this matchup isn't as bad for Ranger Suárez as you might think. He isn't a soft-tossing southpaw, and his two-seam sinker should get in on the hands of Tampa Bay's right-handed hitters. The natural swing paths of Caminero and Díaz should also lead to ground balls against this pitch rather than elevated contact into the gaps.
Total RBIs
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Tropicana Field profiles as the #1 stadium in baseball for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jonathan Aranda has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jonathan Aranda will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.
ATH
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+438)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Let's pick on Mason Barnett, who was just recalled from Triple-A but has already given up 12 homers in 40 big-league innings this year and has a worse ERA away from Sutter Health Park, which is tough to do. The reason for his demotion: He allowed 25 runs in 20-plus innings across his previous six games, with seven dingers given up. Jo Adell is the target and has two homers over his last three games. The former Halo has also seen Barnett twice this season during his time with the Angels. The hitting weather is not great across the board today, so I want guys with elite power, and that's Adell for this lineup. I'm willing to play this to 4.9x, with a fair probability of 21.3%.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Donovan Walton o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+195)
Projection 1.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #2 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Donovan Walton's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 50.3% on the season to 55.6% in the past 14 days.. Ranking in the 88th percentile, Donovan Walton sports a .352 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.. Donovan Walton has displayed favorable plate discipline this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile with a 1.43 K/BB rate.
PHI
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Francisco Alvarez has big-time HR ability (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tim Mayza has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Alvarez.. Francisco Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Bryson Stott o1.5 Total Bases (+202)
Projection 1.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Bryson Stott hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Over the last 14 days, Bryson Stott's 52% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.9%.. As it relates to plate discipline, Bryson Stott's talent is quite impressive, posting a 1.77 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 75th percentile.
DET
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Riley Greene ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the #7 field in the majors for overall lefty offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for HRs.. Batting from the opposite that David Sandlin throws from, Riley Greene will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total Home Runs
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+650)
Projection 0.18
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs.. Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.. Spencer Torkelson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 89.3-mph figure.
TOR
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Spread
TOR -1.5 (+121)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
Dylan Cease brings a filthy 1.89 road ERA into Texas, allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts overall. Kumar Rocker’s 5.02 home ERA screams opportunity for the rested Jays, who have the hotter bats against righties and the bullpen edge. Another red flag for Texas is that they burned through seven pitchers yesterday against Boston. With advanatges everywhere, expect a multi-run Jays' W.
Total RBIs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. Over the last 14 days, Kazuma Okamoto has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 13.8% to 18.8%.. In the last 7 days, Kazuma Okamoto's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16%.. This year, Kazuma Okamoto's flyball exit velocity (a reliable standard to evaluate power) is in the 94th percentile at 96.2 mph.
SEA
@
COL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Dominic Canzone o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Total
o10.5 (-101)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Play this to 52%. Eight of Colorado’s last 10 home games have reached at least 11 runs, and both Coors Field and the Rockies’ struggling pitching staff create plenty of scoring upside.
ATL
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Matt Olson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+271)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 30%. Matt Olson’s recent contact quality is tough to ignore. He owns a 63.6% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate over the last week while continuing to elevate the ball. Lambert can give up fly balls, and Houston’s struggling bullpen only adds to Olson’s chances of going deep.
Total
o8.5 (+103)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. The starting pitching may be steady, but both bullpens have been vulnerable lately. Houston’s relief corps has been especially shaky, carrying a 6.46 FIP with 2.52 HR/9 allowed over the last week. With Atlanta swinging it well, there’s plenty of late-game scoring potential here.
WAS
@
STL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 90°.. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Nolan Gorman o1.5 Total Bases (+275)
Projection 1.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 90°.. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Cavalli today.. Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Gorman tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Cavalli.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game.
MIN
@
LAA
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:38 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Grayson Rodriguez o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+350)
Projection 5.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Austin Jones profiles as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be umping in today's game.. Projected catcher Tyler Heineman profiles as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The #4 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Grayson Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Kyren Paris u1.5 Total Bases (-350)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyren Paris in the 6th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Kyren Paris is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Angel Stadium as the worst ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. Based on Statcast metrics, Kyren Paris ranks in the 15th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .186.. With a 5.25 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Kyren Paris has shown poor plate discipline, placing in the 18th percentile.
MIA
@
SD
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Dustin Harris u0.5 Total Hits (+149)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Dustin Harris has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 22% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.. The #4 stadium in the league for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today.. Dustin Harris pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest RF fences in today's game.
Strikeouts Thrown
Nick Pivetta o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+135)
Projection 6.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Pivetta in the 92nd percentile among all SPs in the game.. The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Esteury Ruiz, Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez).. The #9 venue in the league for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most favorable for pitching on the schedule today.
NYY
@
AZ
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 2.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 2nd-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.
Total Bases
Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 2nd-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.
SF
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 18 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Teoscar Hernandez's BABIP ability is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. Dodger Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the game for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Teoscar Hernandez will have the handedness advantage against Cesar Perdomo in today's game.
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Will Smith projects as the 18th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Will Smith is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Dodger Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the game for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Will Smith will have the handedness advantage against Cesar Perdomo in today's game.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
