Philadelphia @ Boston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in MLB for RHB BABIP. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela is quite toolsy, checking in at the 92nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29 ft/sec this year.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. The weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the same side that Kutter Crawford throws from, Alec Bohm will have a tough matchup in today's game. Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Despite posting a .347 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alec Bohm has experienced some positive variance given the .030 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in MLB for RHB BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks. Tyler O'Neill will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in MLB for RHB BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Connor Wong has been hot in recent games, cruising to a .369 wOBA in the past two weeks.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. The weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Bryce Harper will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Bryce Harper ranks in the 12th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (12.4% rate since the start of last season).

When assessing his BABIP ability, Rob Refsnyder is projected as the 19th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in MLB for RHB BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Rob Refsnyder will hold that advantage in today's game.

Johan Rojas's BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in MLB for RHB BABIP. Johan Rojas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Johan Rojas usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. Johan Rojas has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 29.35 ft/sec to 29.81 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. The weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Batting from the same side that Kutter Crawford throws from, Nick Castellanos meets a tough challenge in today's game. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Castellanos in today's game. In notching a .281 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Nick Castellanos is ranked in the 24th percentile.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 20th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage in today's matchup. Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have the upper hand in today's game. Masataka Yoshida has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences today.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand today. Rafael Devers has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in MLB for RHB BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks. Since the start of last season, J.T. Realmuto's 11.2% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 76th percentile among his peers.

Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Dominic Smith will have an edge in today's matchup. Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Dominic Smith will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Dominic Smith and his 15.9° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 85th percentile, among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in MLB for RHB BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks. Edmundo Sosa is remarkably toolsy, grading out in the 97th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.6 ft/sec this year. With a .324 BABIP since the start of last season, Edmundo Sosa has performed in the 85th percentile.

Jarren Duran's BABIP talent is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jarren Duran will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler today. Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

David Hamilton is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, David Hamilton will have the upper hand today. David Hamilton has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and David Hamilton will hold that advantage in today's game.

Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an advantage in today's game. Enmanuel Valdez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Enmanuel Valdez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Despite posting a .246 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Enmanuel Valdez has had some very poor luck given the .037 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .283.

Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Garrett Stubbs will have an advantage in today's matchup. Garrett Stubbs pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Garrett Stubbs ranks in the 97th percentile with a 22.4° launch angle, which is among the most flyball-inducing angles in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Bryson Stott is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Bryson Stott will have an advantage today. Bryson Stott has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Fenway Park projects as the #5 ballpark in baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, David Dahl will have an advantage in today's game. David Dahl hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Since the start of last season, David Dahl's 14.3% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, David Dahl has an average exit velocity of 94.4 mph, which is among the best in the game at the 99th percentile.