Philadelphia @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Dry weather has a small but significant correlation with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 5th-lowest humidity of all games on the slate at 37%. Corbin Burnes will hold the platoon advantage over Alec Bohm today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles. Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alec Bohm's true offensive skill to be a .317, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .024 difference between that figure and his actual .341 wOBA.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Garrett Stubbs will hold the platoon advantage over Corbin Burnes today. Garrett Stubbs pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Garrett Stubbs ranks in the 97th percentile with a 22.4° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in the league.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jorge Mateo will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.268) provides evidence that Jorge Mateo has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .224 actual batting average. Jorge Mateo can really hit the cover off the ball. If you were to take the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (109.2 mph) rate him as one of baseball's best: in the 75th percentile since the start of last season. Jorge Mateo is notably fast, grading out in the 99th percentile in Sprint Speed at 30.01 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average. Ramon Urias has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ramon Urias has put up a .329 BABIP since the start of last season, placing in the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Johan Rojas in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average. Johan Rojas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles. Johan Rojas has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 29.35 ft/sec to 29.84 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Cedric Mullins II will have an edge in today's game. Cedric Mullins II pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences today. Cedric Mullins II will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Cedric Mullins II has been unlucky this year, compiling a .242 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .065 deviation.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the game. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an edge today. Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today.

Bryson Stott's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryson Stott is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Bryson Stott will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Corbin Burnes today. Bryson Stott has posted a .301 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 9th-best batter in the game. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, Bryce Harper ranks in the 100th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .423.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ryan Mountcastle is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average. Ryan Mountcastle has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Ryan Mountcastle will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest right field dimensions in the majors. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 4th-best hitter in the game when estimating his BABIP ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Brandon Marsh will have the handedness advantage against Corbin Burnes in today's matchup.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, David Dahl will have the upper hand in today's matchup. David Dahl hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Since the start of last season, David Dahl's 14.3% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, David Dahl has an average exit velocity of 94.4 mph, which is among the best in the league at the 99th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average. Nick Castellanos's speed has increased this year. His 27.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.54 ft/sec now. Nick Castellanos has been unlucky this year, posting a .280 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .043 difference.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 16th-best hitter in the game. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage over Zack Wheeler today. Gunnar Henderson will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage today. Anthony Santander's 90.6-mph average exit velocity ranks among the elite in Major League Baseball since the start of last season: 76th percentile.

Colton Cowser's BABIP ability is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Colton Cowser will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup. Colton Cowser will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jordan Westburg will hold that advantage in today's game. Using Statcast metrics, Jordan Westburg ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .286. Ranked in the 77th percentile, Jordan Westburg has one of the highest average exit velocities in MLB since the start of last season (90.2-mph).

Edmundo Sosa's BABIP ability is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average. Edmundo Sosa is notably fast, grading out in the 96th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.6 ft/sec this year. Posting a .321 BABIP since the start of last season, Edmundo Sosa is positioned in the 83rd percentile.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest right field dimensions in the majors. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's game.