MLB Picks

Joe Boyle has looked good with the Rays, striking out a whopping 16 batters in his first two starts. He'll limit a Cubs team that ranks 22nd in batting average enough to keep this game below the total.

Tampa Bay ranks sixth in OPS and fifth in wRC+ and gets a solid matchup against the Cubs’ Colin Rea. If Rea can't go deep into this game, he hands the ball to a struggling Cubs' bullpen that ranks 29th in xERA.

Caissie is off to a great start hitting .296 with a .947 OPS, with two home runs, nine RBI, and four runs scored.

The Cincinnati Reds are trading as +117 underdogs on the moneyline, and after costing me a unit yesterday against the Marlins—when I backed Miami—I’m switching sides on Wednesday and hoping the Reds return that unit and more. Brady Singer relies on a heavy sinker-slider combination with strong downward movement, which should create problems for a young Marlins lineup that’s focused on elevating the ball. Without the right approach against Singer, Miami is likely to produce a high volume of ground balls. With Ke’Bryan Hayes backing him at third base—one of the best defensive third basemen in the game—Singer should be able to trust his defense and let them do the work. I make the Reds closer to -110 favorites in this spot, rather than +117 underdogs.

I was immediately attracted to this Over, with a projected total of 9.2. The other side presents scoring chances, too. I’ve been consistently down on Will Warren relative to the market, and while I’m expecting him to be “just fine” here tonight which mains the As should be able to do the little amount of scoring required of them to get this Over. 

You can pick your own narrative for the ways Severino may struggle tonight. The walk rate of over 20% through two starts isn’t going to continue, but it may persist as a story here, given the circumstances of being at Yankee Stadium against a lineup full of power

Framber Valdez fell apart in the final two months last season but still finished with good overall numbers. He had a sparkling 3.06 ERA with two All-Star appearances over the previous three years. It looks like he's recaptured that form, pitching to a 0.75 ERA through two starts with his new team. He'll shut down a Twins lineup that struggles against lefties. Minnesota's Baily Ober had a brutal 5.10 ERA last season, but his xERA was 4.36. He also looked much better in the previous two years, pitching to a 3.73 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP across 57 starts. With neither team impressing at the dish and cool temperatures in Minnesota tonight, back the Under. 

Despite struggling down the stretch last season, Framber Valdez still finished with an impressive 3.37 FIP. He's looked extremely sharp with his new team, posting a 2.24 FIP through two starts with Detroit. The Twins counter with Bailey Ober who had a 5.10 ERA with an OBA of .275 last year. He's off to another rough season, surrendering three runs in four innings in both of his starts. These teams have been mediocre at the dish but Detroit has the superior lineup on paper and the analytics indicate positive regression. The Tigers are seventh in the majors in xSLG (.411) while the Twins are 27th (.345). Minnesota is also batting just .196 against lefties like Valdez.