Boston @ Toronto Picks & Props

Rogers Centre projects as the #22 park in the league for left-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jarren Duran in today's game. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, posting a .347 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .025 disparity. Utilizing Statcast data, Jarren Duran ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .211.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 7th-worst park in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Tanner Houck will hold the platoon advantage over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Houck's large platoon split. Extreme groundball hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranks in the 6th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (11.5% rate since the start of last season).

Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Spencer Horwitz will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Spencer Horwitz will hold that advantage in today's game.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Considering Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Addison Barger will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Addison Barger hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Addison Barger will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Ceddanne Rafaela is quite quick, ranking in the 91st percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.93 ft/sec this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best hitter in MLB. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Bassitt throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge today. Based on Statcast metrics, Rafael Devers is in the 85th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .354.

The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Kevin Kiermaier will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Houck in today's game... and moreover, Houck has a large platoon split. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Kevin Kiermaier will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Over the past 7 days, Connor Wong has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .372.

Justin Turner is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Hitters such as Justin Turner with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Justin Turner will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Justin Turner and his 15.9° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 85th percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's game... and moreover, Houck has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball bats like Daulton Varsho usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Daulton Varsho will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Rob Refsnyder has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .383. Based on Statcast data, Rob Refsnyder is in the 83rd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .342.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Bassitt throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an edge today. With a .280 batting average since the start of last season, Masataka Yoshida finds himself in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Tyler O'Neill's 12.5% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) is in the 86th percentile since the start of last season. Tyler O'Neill and his 16.7° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 78th percentile, among the highest in baseball since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Ernie Clement hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Ernie Clement will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Ernie Clement's footspeed has increased this season. His 28.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.95 ft/sec now. Ernie Clement ranks in the 84th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (19.1% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and George Springer will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Enmanuel Valdez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Enmanuel Valdez will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Enmanuel Valdez's 10.5% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) grades out in the 76th percentile since the start of last season. Enmanuel Valdez's 93.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to assess power) grades out in the 76th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Alejandro Kirk will hold that advantage today. Alejandro Kirk's quickness has gotten better this year. His 23.66 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.46 ft/sec now. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.256) suggests that Alejandro Kirk has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .239 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.258) implies that Isiah Kiner-Falefa has had positive variance on his side this year with his .300 actual wOBA. Posting a .272 batting average this year, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is ranked in the 77th percentile.

The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Batting from the opposite that Chris Bassitt throws from, Reese McGuire will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Schneider in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Davis Schneider is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Rogers Centre. Extreme flyball bats like Davis Schneider generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Davis Schneider will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Chris Bassitt throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage in today's matchup. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Dominic Smith has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 15.9° mark is among the highest in MLB since the start of last season (85th percentile). As it relates to plate discipline, Dominic Smith's ability is quite impressive, putting up a 1.9 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 80th percentile.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.