San Francisco @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Keaton Winn will have the handedness advantage over Masyn Winn in today's matchup. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.7-mph EV last year has lowered to 85.5-mph. Masyn Winn's launch angle lately (1.8° in the past 7 days) is quite a bit lower than his 14.6° seasonal figure. Masyn Winn has been lucky this year, putting up a .326 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .285 — a .041 discrepancy.

This year, Alec Burleson has been pinch hit for in 13% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher. Alec Burleson has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 83-mph in the past week's worth of games. With a 3.73 K/BB rate this year, Alec Burleson has shown bad plate discipline, ranking in the 20th percentile.

Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Keaton Winn throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage today. Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Batters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Keaton Winn who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Nick Ahmed hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. As it relates to his batting average, Nick Ahmed has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .226 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .238.

In MLB, Rickwood Field's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Hitters such as Wilmer Flores with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Andre Pallante who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.297) suggests that Wilmer Flores has experienced some negative variance this year with his .270 actual wOBA. Wilmer Flores has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, ranking in the 89th percentile with a 1.6 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Matt Chapman is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Matt Chapman tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

In MLB, Rickwood Field's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 93°.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Michael Conforto ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Michael Conforto is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. The 8th-deepest right field fences among all stadiums are found in Rickwood Field. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Michael Conforto will have an advantage today.

Patrick Bailey is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. The 8th-deepest right field fences among all stadiums are found in Rickwood Field. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Patrick Bailey has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 95.4-mph over the last 7 days. Patrick Bailey's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 46.3% to 53.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Jorge Soler hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Jorge Soler's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 92.9 mph to 90.5 mph. Despite posting a .311 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jorge Soler has had bad variance on his side given the .031 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .342.

Brett Wisely has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Brett Wisely will have the handedness advantage against Andre Pallante today. Brett Wisely hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Brett Wisely's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.1% up to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. The 8th-deepest right field fences among all stadiums are found in Rickwood Field. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Batting from the opposite that Keaton Winn throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Heliot Ramos hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. In the past week's worth of games, Heliot Ramos's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 17.9% up to 23.5%.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Mike Yastrzemski will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's matchup. Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Mike Yastrzemski tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante. Mike Yastrzemski has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.5% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past 7 days.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Pedro Pages hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 75th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. In MLB, Rickwood Field's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Paul Goldschmidt will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Matt Carpenter will have the handedness advantage against Keaton Winn in today's matchup. Matt Carpenter pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Batters such as Matt Carpenter with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Keaton Winn who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Matt Carpenter will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. In MLB, Rickwood Field's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 93°. Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Ivan Herrera has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .317 figure is a good deal lower than his .344 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 91°. Brandon Crawford will hold the platoon advantage over Keaton Winn in today's matchup. Brandon Crawford hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Brandon Crawford will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Brandon Crawford's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 13.7% to 17.9%.

Jose Fermin has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Nolan Arenado has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.