The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. J.T. Realmuto has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. J.T. Realmuto has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.5-mph mark.. J.T. Realmuto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, going from 12.9% on the season to 40% over the past 7 days.

Eric Fedde draws a difficult matchup against one of baseball's toughest lineups to strike out. The veteran right hander has struggled to miss bats all season, especially on the road, where his strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate all take a noticeable dip. Those trends have continued over his recent starts, and Batters-Box trends also points toward another low strikeout outing in this matchup. Tampa Bay consistently puts the ball in play, making it difficult for opposing pitchers to rack up punchouts. With the matchup working against him, Fedde under 3.5 strikeouts is my favorite angle in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Fry in the 15th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. David Fry is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. 59% of the time that David Fry has started against a southpaw this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. The league's 4th-highest average fence height can be found at Progressive Field.. Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

When estimating his home run talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. Francisco Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage today.. Francisco Alvarez has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 16.3% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last 7 days.

CJ Abrams continues to swing one of the hottest bats in baseball and finds himself in another favorable matchup Friday night. The Nationals shortstop has crushed right handed pitching recently, pairing elite production with excellent quality of contact. He will face Bryce Elder, who has consistently struggled to retire left handed hitters and has allowed plenty of hard contact and extra base damage. Washington's offense has also been rolling, creating another strong run producing environment. While Abrams' Batters-Box elite rating trends are only average, the matchup and current form make him a strong candidate to clear his total bases prop.

Nathan Eovaldi is an excellent strikeout artist but ranks in the 34th percentile in barrel rate. That could get him into trouble against the Houston Astros, who sit fourth in ISO vs. right-handed pitching in July.

Texas holds down the seventh slot in ISO against righties this month while also cracking the Top-10 in hard hit rate and fly ball percentage.

Bet the Over to -125.

Hunter Goodman may be in a bit of a slump, but his underlying metrics suggest a breakout is coming. The Rockies catcher continues to barrel the baseball at an elite rate while generating plenty of hard contact against right handed pitching. He also draws a favorable matchup against Michael Wacha, who has struggled to limit quality contact from right handed hitters and doesn't generate many strikeouts. That combination should give Goodman plenty of opportunities to do damage at Coors Field. While the price is inflated because of the ballpark, Goodman still has a strong path to clearing 1.5 total bases tonight.

The Brewers are set up nicely to bounce back after Wednesday’s blowout loss. They've been strong in games after a loss this season and own an MLB-best 11-4 record following a day off. They'll face Angels youngster Ryan Johnson, who owns an ugly 7.34 ERA and has been smacked around in multiple starts. With Milwaukee ranking second in OPS over the past week and Los Angeles sitting 27th in OPS in July, Shane Drohan is well-positioned to lead the Brewers to a comfortable win.

The Detroit Tigers can be had for a reasonable price after the market pounced on the A's side when projected starter Casey Mize was scratched.  Enter Ty Madden, who's been great (2.72 xERA, 2.99 FIP) across 27 innings in the big leagues. Detroit is fresh off a day of rest, so the bullpen behind him will have every notable arm available. Play the Tigers to -140.

Rafael Devers tops Batters-Box's ratings today, marking his 260th elite rated matchup over the last three seasons. He has homered in 22.39% of his previous 259 elite rated games, and tonight's matchup is another favorable one. Germán Márquez has been crushed by left handed hitters all season, allowing a ton of contact, plenty of elevation, and elite expected numbers. While Devers' pitch coverage is lowered by a limited sample against Márquez's knuckle curve, he grades out extremely well against the rest of his arsenal. Combined with Devers' recent form, this sets up as an outstanding opportunity for a long ball.

Ranger Suárez will make his second start since returning from a groin injury. In his first outing on July 26 against the Blue Jays, he threw just four scoreless innings on 64 pitches while striking out six, suggesting the Red Sox are still easing him back. Against the Dodgers' patient lineup, this could be another short outing, exposing Boston's middle relievers. The matchup is also dangerous for Suárez, whose heavy sinker lives at the bottom of the zone and relies on weak ground balls. The Dodgers match up well against that profile, with right-handed hitters like Mookie Betts and Andy Pages owning swing paths built to attack low pitches. Polymarket has Los Angeles at a 54-cent favorite, but I make them closer to 58 cents, so I'm hitting the button.