MLB Picks

There won’t be many opportunities this season to back Chase Dollander in a true pitcher-friendly ballpark, considering his home games come at Coors Field, but this is one of them, and I have no problem hitting the button on a pitcher who has looked like an ace this season. Dollander features a high-velocity fastball that sits around 99 mph along with elite, high-spin secondary pitches. Those off-speed pitches should have even more bite at PNC Park than they typically do at altitude in Colorado. A power right-hander with a high-carry four-seam fastball is also a nightmare matchup for the long swing of Oneil Cruz. If you can neutralize Cruz, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense looks a lot less dangerous. I price the Colorado Rockies closer to +120 underdogs in this matchup.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for pitching of all games on the slate.. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Luis Garcia Jr. in today's matchup.. From last season to this one, Luis Garcia Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15.3% to 9.1%.. The standard deviation of Luis Garcia Jr.'s launch angle since the start of last season (29.5°) is in the 19th percentile. A high mark like this tends to lead to a lower BABIP.

When estimating his home run talent, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Spencer Torkelson are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.. Based on Statcast data, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 89th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 30.400.. Spencer Torkelson's 13.8% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) is in the 89th percentile since the start of last season.

The Minnesota Twins are trading around -120 on Thursday, and that’s a number we can hit as I price the Twins closer to -145 favorites against the Miami Marlins. Connor Prielipp is a swing-and-miss left-hander who has shown strikeout stuff throughout his time in the minors, and that has continued through his first four major league starts, where he’s posted a 9.95 K/9. The Marlins have improved offensively, but they still lack the type of power bats that can consistently punish mistakes over the heart of the plate. Instead, Miami often needs to string together multiple hits to generate runs, and that becomes a major problem against a lefty capable of piling up strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Twins should be able to roll out a lineup with only one left-handed bat—Matt Wallner—against left-hander Braxton Garrett, giving Minnesota a favorable platoon setup throughout most of the order.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 17th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Carlos Cortes is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.. Carlos Cortes hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 5th-strongest among every team playing today.. Carlos Cortes's quickness has dropped off this year. His 26.61 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.94 ft/sec now.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to worse offense.. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to drop to the 3rd-lowest level of all games on the slate today at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Among every team playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Edmundo Sosa in today's game.. Edmundo Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 13.8% to 5.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randal Grichuk in the 17th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts the best pitching conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 10.1-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for mound aces.. The Kansas City Royals infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today.. Randal Grichuk has recorded a .278 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 13th percentile.

Rafael Devers may not be the same power hitter he once was with the Boston Red Sox, but he’s heating up lately with three home runs over his last seven games. He’s also seeing the ball extremely well in this series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, recording five hits and two walks, which is a strong sign that he’s comfortable at the plate in this ballpark. At +425, I’m hitting the button, as I price Devers closer to +325 to hit a home run on Thursday. Emmet Sheehan has allowed six home runs this season, and all six have come against left-handed hitters. Devers will also have the wind blowing out to his pull side at 8 mph, which only adds to the appeal of this matchup.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.