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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 4, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+120 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
4.13 |
-130
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +155 
|
Detroit
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mizes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Monteros last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Mizes last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Allens last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Allens last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.91 |
-153
|
o9.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +102
|
|
4.96 |
+143
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -118 
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.67 |
+105
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
3.87 |
-106
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +155
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Sanchezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+251)
o0.5+251
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.26 |
+170
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -130 
|
|
5.56 |
-177
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +118
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
-115
|
o8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.28 |
+105
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -160
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Blaze Alexander u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
u0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.59 |
-135
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
3.66 |
+125
|
u8.0 -112
|
+1.5 -140
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+165
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.39 |
-180
|
u8.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +120
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Giants last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in McLeans last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.26 |
+125
|
o7.5 -141
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
|
4.91 |
-135
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
o1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.27 |
+105
|
o9.0 -105
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.44 |
-115
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Matthews' last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Twins are 6-0 in Matthews' last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Feddes last 8 starts.
Top Projection
Drew Romo o0.5 Total RBIs (+307)
o0.5+307
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.70 |
-115
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.58 |
+105
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -165
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 7-0 in Martinezs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 games following a win.
Top Projection
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+212)
o0.5+212
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
+120
|
o8.5 -118
|
+1.5 -184
|
|
4.48 |
-130
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0-2 in Kellys last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Kellys last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kellys last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.17 |
+105
|
o9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
5.00 |
-115
|
u10.0 -114
|
-1.5 +135
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.52 |
-121
|
o11.5 +100
|
-1.5 +116
|
|
5.72 |
+115
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -135
|
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games following a loss.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
-125
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.34 |
+115
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -155
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
San Diego
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Max Fried o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+1750)
o3.5-165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.44 |
+270
|
o8.0 -115
|
+2.5 -135
|
|
4.86 |
-300
|
u8.5 -120
|
-2.5 +115
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Snells last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in Snells last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
o0.5+305
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.26 |
+194
|
o5.0 -435
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.58 |
-210
|
u7.5 -130
|
-1.5 +105
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Gilberts last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Max Muncy o0.5 Total RBIs (+350)
o0.5+350
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Hits
HL
Hao-Yu Lee u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Kevin McGonigle ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 4th-highest humidity on the slate today (75%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.
MIL
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:10 PM ET
Spread
MIL -1.5 (+101)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
When the Brewers win, they tend to win big, with 11 of their last 12 victories coming by multiple runs. Brewers hitters own a combined .946 OPS against Rhett Lowder, highlighted by smacking him around for nine runs off 19 hits in two meetings this season. Milwaukee also ranks fourth in OPS against righties over the past two weeks. Shane Drohan has dominated the Reds, holding them to two total runs across two starts this season, and Cincinnati has struggled against lefties lately. Add in Milwaukee’s sizeable bullpen advantage, and the Brewers should be able to pull away.
Total Bases
Garrett Mitchell o1.5 Total Bases (+159)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Mitchell as the 3rd-best batter in the league when assessing his BABIP skill.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #4 field in the league for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 96°.. Garrett Mitchell will hold the platoon advantage against Rhett Lowder in today's matchup.. Garrett Mitchell has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
ATL
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+101)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
I mean, this is as good as it gets. Two NL East rivals battling for the division, with Chris Sale and Cristopher Sánchez on the mound. I'm not going to overthink this one. I'm backing Sale and the Braves, especially with Sale coming off a dominant complete-game shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers. You know he's in elite form right now. The Phillies' offense is heavily dependent on production from three left-handed bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez. That makes it difficult to back Philadelphia at this price against a left-hander like Sale. Schwarber and Harper both look to drop the barrel and elevate pitches in the lower half of the strike zone, but Sale can counter that swing path with his sweeping slider. The Braves are trading at 50% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53% favorite in this spot.
Total RBIs
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+259)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park ranks as the #9 stadium in the game for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Bryce Harper has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today.
LAA
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Esmerlyn Valdez o1.5 Total Bases (+215)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Esmerlyn Valdez in the 97th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. PNC Park profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (88%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Esmerlyn Valdez has a ton of pop (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (31.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryan Johnson doesn't generate many whiffs (6th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 13th-best home run hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. PNC Park profiles as the #4 ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Johnson in today's matchup.
BOS
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Roman Anthony o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP talent, Roman Anthony is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Roman Anthony is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Roman Anthony will have an advantage today.. Roman Anthony hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage today.. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
CHC
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Spread
CHC -1.5 (+129)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Cubs rank second in xwOBA and first is ISO across the past 30 days, so with Marlins starter Janson Junk sporting a ho-hum 4.28 xERA and 4.72 xFIP over his past seven starts, I’m anticipating the Chicago lineup pulling away on the scoreboard tonight. Miami respectively checks in with a 27th-ranked xwOBA and 25th-ranked ISO during the same stretch, and the Marlins are 20th in wOBA against lefties for the season, after all. Finally, while there have been a lot of peaks and valleys for Chicago southpaw Shota Imanaga, his 3.89 xERA and 3.82 xFIP across his past 11 starts also reinforce the edge on the mound for the Cubbies.
Total Hits
Kyle Stowers u0.5 Total Hits (+143)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
LoanDepot Park grades out as the #23 stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Hitting from the same side that Shota Imanaga throws from, Kyle Stowers has a tough challenge in today's game.. Today, Kyle Stowers is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.3% rate (83rd percentile).
SF
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball.. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Juan Soto hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Juan Soto will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Carson Benge is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Carson Benge has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Carson Benge will hold that advantage today.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run skill, Riley Greene ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.
Total RBIs
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run skill, Riley Greene ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.
MIN
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Colson Montgomery o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Colson Montgomery projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #6 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 89°.. Hitting from the opposite that Zebby Matthews throws from, Colson Montgomery will have an advantage today.. Colson Montgomery pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
Total Bases
Ryan Jeffers o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best field in the majors for boosting offensive stats to righties.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 87°.
TB
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Cedric Mullins o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Considering Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Cedric Mullins will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.
Total Bases
Brandon Nimmo o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have the upper hand today.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.
AZ
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Projection 2.1
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in MLB.. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Hits
Isaac Paredes u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Isaac Paredes's BABIP ability is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #4 ballpark in baseball for suppressing batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -10° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Merrill Kelly will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Isaac Paredes in today's matchup.
TOR
@
KC
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Why can't I quit this dude? I mean, he has been incredibly efficient over his last two games, he's produced productive at-bats, and has great numbers against Lynch. Vladdy owns a .790 xSLG in this matchup, which should be enough to go yard. At this price, I have to hit the button on him.
Total
o10.0 (-105)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Where has this Toronto Blue Jays offense been all year? They exploded for 17 runs across their last two games against the Cleveland Guardians and have a plus matchup against Daniel Lynch, who will be on another short leash tonight. If the Jays can get to Lynch early, they should be able to eat the second-worst bullpen in the bigs alive (5.09 ERA). On the other side, Jameson Taillon is making his first start back from injury after rocking a 11.88 ERA in July and 3.38 ERA in August. With a bullpen that was used up yesterday afternoon, the Royals will do their part to get us across the line.
STL
@
COL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+116)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hunter Goodman projects as the 12th-best home run hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Projection 2.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jordan Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
NYY
@
SD
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1500)
Projection 0.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Max Fried will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Cronenworth in today's game.. Jake Cronenworth will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
Strikeouts Thrown
Max Fried o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+2000)
Projection 5.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Wells (the Yankees's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a good pitch framer.. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. This game is forecasted to have the 5th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Due to his reverse platoon split, Max Fried should be in good shape going up against 7 hitters in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in today's matchup.
WAS
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dylan Crews is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the best venue in the league for right-handed home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Dylan Crews will have the handedness advantage over Blake Snell in today's game.. Dylan Crews hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Strikeouts Thrown
Blake Snell o7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-104)
Projection 8.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his strikeout skill, Blake Snell projects as the 4th-best SP in baseball currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Projected catcher Hunter Feduccia grades out as a good pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 7th-best park in baseball for strikeouts.. Blake Snell has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher metrics across the board, and Blake Snell will hold that advantage in today's game.
ATH
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
Projection 1.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Zack Gelof ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams playing today.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
T-Mobile Park grades out as the #29 stadium in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the best pitching conditions of the day.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (J.T. Ginn) today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
