MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 4, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Houston Astros logo HOU @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Fri, Apr 3 • 9:40 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Yordan Alvarez logo Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Andrew Caley image
Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst

Yordan Alvarez looks like his old self and is now hitting .417 with a 1.480 OPS, three dingers and six RBIs for the season. He also has reverse splits vs. left-handed pitchers, so don't worry about the matchup vs. Springs.

Total Home Runs
Shea Langeliers logo Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+285)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Langeliers leads the big leagues in home runs with five, and he's gone deep in all but two games so far. The Athletics face Cristian Javier tonight, who allowed two bombs in his season debut. 

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Fri, Apr 3 • 9:45 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 1 Computer Pick
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Arizona Diamondbacks logo o9.0 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Shawn Krest image
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst

Arizona could also score some runs against Atlanta starter Grant Holmes. His fastball's effectiveness was in the bottom 8% of pitchers last year, and he struggled giving up hard-hit balls and walking too many batters.

Holmes took a loss in his first start of the year, giving up seven baserunners and three runs in five innings to the Royals. He's allowed nine runs in nine innings in two career starts against Arizona.

Spread
Atlanta Braves logo ATL -1.5 (+134)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Shawn Krest image
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst

The Braves are hitting better against southpaws (.286/.392/.476) than right-handers (.279/.347/.459) this season. 

Three Atlanta players have a career OPS over 1.000 against Rodriguez, and Matt Olson (.971) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (.833) just missed.

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New York Mets logo NYM @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Fri, Apr 3 • 10:15 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Juan Soto logo Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
Andrew Caley image
Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst

Juan Soto is 4-for-11 with a double and two dingers in his career vs. Tyler Mahle, good for a .338 expected batting average and a .976 expected slugging.

Total
New York Mets logo San Francisco Giants logo u7.5 (-106)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
JD Yonke image
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

These two offenses have had a slow start to the season, and a matchup at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park likely results in a low-scoring game. 


The Giants have an 80 wRC+ en route to a 2-3-2 O/U record, while the Mets have an 88 wRC+ and are 2-5 O/U. 


Both bullpens have a SIERA under 3.90 and have most of their best arms well-rested. They’re throwing behind starting pitchers projected to have an ERA below 4.00 this season.

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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sat, Apr 4 • 1:10 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Strikeouts Thrown
Dustin May logo
Dustin May u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+136)
Projection 4.58
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #4 stadium in baseball for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate today (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. With a 0.35 discrepancy between Dustin May's 8.32 K/9 and his 7.97 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league since the start of last season as it relates to strikeouts and figures to see negative regression in future games.. Ranking in the 9th percentile, Dustin May compiled an 8% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sat, Apr 4 • 4:05 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Outs Recorded
Tyler Glasnow logo
Tyler Glasnow u17.5 Outs Recorded (+110)
Projection 16.71
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all parks, Nationals Park's RF fences are the 8th-shallowest.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest weather on the slate today at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.4-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Tyler Glasnow has compiled a .230 BABIP since the start of last season, indicating that he has been one of the luckiest mound aces in the league on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.. Tyler Glasnow's 3rd percentile walk rate (11.6% since the start of last season) is evidence of his poor control ability.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sat, Apr 4 • 4:05 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Outs Recorded
Carmen Mlodzinski logo
Carmen Mlodzinski u14.5 Outs Recorded (+111)
Projection 13.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 35 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Carmen Mlodzinski has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 11.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Carmen Mlodzinski's 2139-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 17th percentile among all SPs.. Carmen Mlodzinski has notched an 8.7% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season, checking in at the 25th percentile.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Apr 4 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Austin Slater logo
Austin Slater u0.5 Total Hits (+136)
Projection 0.65
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Yankee Stadium has the 5th-deepest CF fences among all stadiums.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 13.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.
Total Hits
Jakob Marsee logo
Jakob Marsee u0.5 Total Hits (+148)
Projection 0.71
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Yankee Stadium profiles as the #27 stadium in MLB for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 5th-deepest CF fences among all stadiums.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 13.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Sat, Apr 4 • 7:10 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 7 Computer Picks
Total
Milwaukee Brewers logo Kansas City Royals logo u9.0 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Andrew Caley image
Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst

Kansas City bats are off to a bit of a slow start, ranking 16th in OPS and 17th in wRC+, and face a Brewers bullpen that ranks second in xFIP.

Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Andrew Caley image
Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst

The Brew Crew enter this game ranked third in both wRC+ and OPS and have plated six or more runs in five of their six games this season, going against Royals prospect Luinder Avila.

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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sat, Apr 4 • 7:10 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Outs Recorded
Steven Matz logo
Steven Matz u14.5 Outs Recorded (+150)
Projection 14.67
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Recording 13.5 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Steven Matz ranks in the 21st percentile.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 3rd-best field in the game for walks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15.1-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Steven Matz has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 53.3% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Sat, Apr 4 • 9:05 PM ET
3 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers logo
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oracle Park grades out as the #4 field in the game for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Oracle Park has the shallowest RF fences in the majors.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.
Total RBIs
Juan Soto logo
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Oracle Park grades out as the #4 field in the game for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Oracle Park has the shallowest RF fences in the majors.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.
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