Chicago @ Cleveland Picks & Props

Steven Kwan has been lucky this year, notching a .418 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .108 difference.

Jose Ramirez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 44.3% to 34.9%. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Ramirez has had some very good luck this year. His .371 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333.

Chris Flexen will hold the platoon advantage over David Fry in today's matchup. In the last two weeks' worth of games, David Fry's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 91.5 mph to 86.1 mph. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates David Fry's true offensive ability to be a .315, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .089 difference between that figure and his actual .404 wOBA.

Carlos Carrasco will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eloy Jimenez in today's matchup. Today, Eloy Jimenez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.1% rate (94th percentile). The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest among every team in action today. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Eloy Jimenez in today's matchup. Eloy Jimenez has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 11.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 7 days.

Hitting from the same side that Carlos Carrasco throws from, Tommy Pham will have a tough matchup in today's matchup. In today's matchup, Tommy Pham is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.4% rate (96th percentile). The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest among every team in action today. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tommy Pham in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Tommy Pham's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

Batting from the same side that Carlos Carrasco throws from, Luis Robert encounters a tough challenge in today's game. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest among every team in action today. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Robert in today's matchup. Luis Robert's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, going from 20.6% on the season to 6.7% in the last week's worth of games. Luis Robert's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 45.5% to 36.8%.

Carlos Carrasco will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Vaughn in today's game. Andrew Vaughn hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest among every team in action today. Andrew Vaughn will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Compared to his seasonal angle of 16.6°, Andrew Vaughn has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (7.1°) over the past two weeks.

Andrew Benintendi hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest among every team in action today. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Andrew Benintendi today. Andrew Benintendi's launch angle in recent games (-0.2° over the last week) is significantly worse than his 15.5° seasonal figure. From last year to this one, Andrew Benintendi's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 48.4% to 38.8%.

Progressive Field profiles as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters. Korey Lee pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Progressive Field projects as the #9 venue in the league for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Progressive Field profiles as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field has the shallowest LF dimensions in Major League Baseball. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Progressive Field projects as the #9 venue in the league for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.

Progressive Field projects as the #9 venue in the league for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox.

Progressive Field profiles as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters. Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Daniel Schneemann has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Progressive Field projects as the #9 venue in the league for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.

Progressive Field projects as the #9 venue in the league for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters. Bo Naylor will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Flexen in today's matchup.

Progressive Field projects as the #9 venue in the league for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Carrasco throws from, Nicky Lopez will have an edge in today's matchup.

Progressive Field profiles as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters. Austin Hedges pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Progressive Field profiles as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to better offense. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters. Paul DeJong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.