Boston @ Miami Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tim Anderson as the 4th-best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP skill. The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Bats such as Tim Anderson with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kutter Crawford who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Tim Anderson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Tim Anderson has been unlucky this year, putting up a .212 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .285 — a .073 discrepancy.

LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to less offense. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -8° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, putting up a .355 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .024 deviation.

The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Emmanuel Rivera will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Emmanuel Rivera has been unlucky this year, putting up a .238 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .303 — a .065 gap. Emmanuel Rivera ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (47.5% rate since the start of last season). The standard deviation of Emmanuel Rivera's launch angle since the start of last season (25.4°) is in the 92nd percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher rate of base hits.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in LoanDepot Park. Connor Wong has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 5.1% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past week's worth of games.

The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in LoanDepot Park. Nick Fortes will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Nick Fortes has been unlucky this year, posting a .191 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .270 — a .079 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Josh Bell is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. LoanDepot Park grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. Josh Bell will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Bryan De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Bryan De La Cruz will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Bryan De La Cruz has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last season's 92.4-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Extreme flyball hitters like Otto Lopez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. Otto Lopez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.315) provides evidence that Otto Lopez has been unlucky this year with his .280 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. In the last two weeks, Tyler O'Neill's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.3-mph over the course of the season to 106.4-mph of late. Last year, Tyler O'Neill had an average launch angle of 15.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 22.7°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today. Ceddanne Rafaela has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph to 91.4-mph over the past two weeks. Ceddanne Rafaela has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 19.2° angle is among the highest in the majors this year (93rd percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. LoanDepot Park grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Valente Bellozo throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today's matchup. Masataka Yoshida has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99.8-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 88.2-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Jake Burger is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage in today's game. Despite posting a .261 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Burger has experienced some negative variance given the .063 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

Nick Gordon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford today. Nick Gordon hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Nick Gordon will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Nick Gordon's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 14.3%. Nick Gordon's launch angle lately (21.4° in the past 7 days) is quite a bit higher than his 6.2° seasonal figure.

LoanDepot Park grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The switch-hitting Vidal Brujan will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Kutter Crawford. Vidal Brujan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. LoanDepot Park grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Valente Bellozo throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today's game. Rafael Devers has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 15.2% seasonal rate to 41.7% in the last week.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. LoanDepot Park grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jesus Sanchez will have the handedness advantage over Kutter Crawford in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's game.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. LoanDepot Park grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Valente Bellozo throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Wilyer Abreu has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 100.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 93-mph.

David Hamilton is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. LoanDepot Park grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage against Valente Bellozo in today's matchup. David Hamilton has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 88.2-mph average. David Hamilton's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 18.4% on the season to 33.3% over the past 14 days.

LoanDepot Park grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Valente Bellozo throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an advantage today. There has been a significant improvement in Enmanuel Valdez's launch angle from last season's 10.4° to 18.8° this year. Enmanuel Valdez has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .291 figure is deflated compared to his .310 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

LoanDepot Park grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Valente Bellozo throws from, Dominic Smith will have an edge in today's matchup. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.4°, Dominic Smith has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 37.3° mark over the last week.