MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 5th-best batter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #1 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Grant Holmes today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, CJ Abrams ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. CJ Abrams will have the handedness advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's game.

These are two tantalizing starters: Taj Bradley has a 108 Stuff+, whereas Jared Jones hits 100 mph on the radar gun and had a 3.18 botERA last we saw him in 2024. The main concern is the weather (hot, wind blowing out), but that's mitigated at PNC park (second-lowest park factor for home runs).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in a prime spot Friday night against Trevor Rogers and the Baltimore Orioles. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and has consistently produced in these spots away from home, recording 2+ bases in 50% of elite road matchups. Guerrero also owns the highest arsenal coverage among elite-rated hitters on today’s slate, matching up extremely well against Rogers’ pitch mix. Meanwhile, Rogers has been crushed by right-handed bats this season, allowing massive hard contact and power numbers. At near even money, Guerrero Jr. is worth backing for extra bases, with home run upside as well.

Max Meyer and Freddy Peralta have been dominant in the first inning all season, making this a strong NRFI spot. Meyer owns a 9-2 NRFI record and has limited the Mets to a .094 average, while Peralta hasn't allowed a first-inning run in 10 straight starts. Both offenses also struggle to score early.

When it comes to his home run skill, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. The #5 park in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in the league, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Samaniego today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zach Neto in the 88th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Zach Neto is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the 4th-best park in the majors for RHB home runs.. Zach Neto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today.

The St. Louis Cardinals are underdogs despite being the home team and being better over the last 10. Two of the last three times St. Louis has allowed fewer than five runs came in Andre Pallante starts.

His improved pitch mix has paid dividends. In an even matchup with a more reliable starter, I’d take St. Louis and its plus-money odds.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-best for pitching on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.. Colson Montgomery has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 13.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Colson Montgomery's true offensive ability to be a .315, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .026 gap between that mark and his actual .341 wOBA.. Checking in at the 23rd percentile, Colson Montgomery has notched a .270 BABIP since the start of last season.

Offense has been hard to find for both Kansas City and Texas lately, which supports another NRFI play. Stephen Kolek has yet to allow a first-inning run this season, while MacKenzie Gore owns an 8-3 NRFI record. With both lineups struggling early, a scoreless first inning is likely.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Coleman Crow today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Yordan Alvarez has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 18.2% seasonal rate to 30% in the last week.

Rafael Devers is in an elite spot tonight against Michael Lorenzen at Coors Field, but instead of laying juice on traditional props like total bases or HRR, there is more value attacking his ceiling outcome. Rather than paying steep prices for safer markets, sprinkling on Devers to record a double and a home run offers far better upside at plus money. If Devers is going to do damage in this matchup, the expectation is that it comes in loud fashion. Coors Field only adds to that potential, and when a home run just misses, it often turns into a double off the wall anyway.

When you’re cold, it’s never a bad idea to take the most probable home run on the slate today at a projection of 0.39 HR from New York’s Aaron Judge. With an implied 0.33 HR from the +246 price, it grades out as a +EV spot for a Judge homer. This is also the second-best home run park on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and the matchup is favorable for the right-handed slugger, who ranks as THE BAT’s No. 1 hitter in baseball. Luis Severino has struggled significantly at Sutter Health Park, where his ERA is roughly two runs higher than his season average and was three runs higher there last year. His 2.2 HR/9 at home is among the worst marks in baseball, and he has already allowed multiple home runs in three of his four home starts this season. Judge also has history in the matchup, going 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBIs across eight at-bats against Severino.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-worst venue in the league for RHB batting average.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this game forecasts the lowest temperature on the slate today at 56°.. Hitting from the same side that Zac Gallen throws from, Randy Arozarena encounters a tough challenge today.. Randy Arozarena's launch angle this season (7.4°) is considerably lower than his 13.4° mark last season.

This spot makes for an appealing Under as both bullpens are fully rested following Thursday’s off day. Philadelphia, which has ace Zack Wheeler on the bump, has a 2.00 SIERA and 28.9 K-BB% in relief over the last 20 days. LA holds a 2.94 FIP in that span.

 

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.