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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 27, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.68 |
-109 
|
o8.0 -118 
|
-1.5 +155 
|
|
4.20 |
-104 
|
u8.5 -117
|
+1.5 -176 
|
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Washington
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Herzs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 home starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Andres Chaparro u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
u1.5-200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.86 |
+115
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.18 |
-130
|
u7.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Bazs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Bazs last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 games as an underdog.
- Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Shane Baz o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135)
o4.5-135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.51 |
-260
|
o7.5 -139
|
-1.5 -146
|
|
2.96 |
+215
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 +122
|
LA Dodgers
- Under is 3-0-3 in Dodgers last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 vs. National League West.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as a favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 home games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.35 |
-164
|
o9.5 +103
|
-1.5 +101
|
|
5.52 |
+145
|
u9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -110
|
Houston
- Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 overall.
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in last 7 games a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.88 |
+133
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -159
|
|
4.62 |
-145 
|
u7.5 -129
|
-1.5 +155
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Philadelphia
- Under is 3-0-1 in Walkers last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Phillies are 5-1 in Walkers last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+290
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
-124
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.64 |
+106
|
u7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -165
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.44 |
+150
|
o8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -139
|
|
4.52 |
-175
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +125
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
George Springer o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+170)
o1.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-126
|
o7.5 -118
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.07 |
+112
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -150
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in Jones' last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Jones' last 4 road starts.
- Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a win.
- Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
-143
|
o8.5 -107
|
-1.5 +116
|
|
3.97 |
+125
|
u8.5 -108
|
+1.5 -135
|
Cleveland
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
Kansas City
- Over is 7-0 in Royals last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Lynch IVs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+650)
o0.5+860
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.39 |
-125
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +138
|
|
4.19 |
+110
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -160
|
Arizona
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sorokas last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.15 |
+160
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -141
|
|
3.63 |
-180
|
u7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +125
|
LA Angels
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Angels last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.57 |
-108
|
o8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.32 |
-105
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -180
|
Atlanta
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games as a road underdog.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. National League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Marlins last 10 home games.
Top Projection
Janson Junk o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+132)
o3.5+132
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.98 |
+180
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.62 |
-196
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +106
|
Colorado
- Rockies are 4-0 in Freelands last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Freelands last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 13-2-1 in Rockies last 16 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Randal Grichuk u1.5 Total Bases (-115)
u1.5+105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.18 |
+210
|
o6.5 -121
|
+1.5 -109
|
|
4.02 |
-230
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +100
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as an underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-0-1 in Misiorowskis last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+450)
o0.5+450
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.39 |
-122
|
o8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.85 |
+106
|
u8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -159
|
Texas
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 11-0 in Rangers last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Rangers last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Rangers last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
NYM
@
WAS
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Andres Chaparro u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Chaparro in the 17th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst park in MLB for righty base hits.. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to less offense.. Andres Chaparro has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 12.2% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past week.. Andres Chaparro's launch angle recently (1° over the last week) is significantly lower than his 17.2° seasonal angle.
Total RBIs
Francisco Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest fences among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. This game is forecasted to have the 4th-highest humidity of all games today (93%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Francisco Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over DJ Herz today.. Francisco Alvarez has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 15.7% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the past week's worth of games.
BAL
@
NYY
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Gunnar Henderson u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The 5th-deepest CF dimensions among all stadiums are found in Yankee Stadium.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for pitchers.. The New York Yankees infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team playing today.. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gunnar Henderson today.. Gunnar Henderson has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph dropping to 84.4-mph in the last week.
Strikeouts Thrown
Shane Baz o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135)
Projection 5.96
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Tallying 95.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Shane Baz checks in at the 95th percentile.. The New York Yankees have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (George Lombard, Spencer Jones, Ryan McMahon, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).. Vic Carapazza projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be umping in today's game.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for pitchers.
TB
@
PHI
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Victor Mesa Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+840)
Projection 0.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Mesa Jr. in the 80th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Victor Mesa Jr. is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-best field in the majors for LHB home runs.. Dingers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. This game is projected to have the most humidity of the day (100%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.
Total Bases
Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 9th-best batter in the game.. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. This game is projected to have the most humidity of the day (100%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Batting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge today.
CIN
@
TOR
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Matt McLain o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
Projection 1.27
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 78th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Matt McLain's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 16% to 21.7%.. Matt McLain has been unlucky this year, compiling a .273 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .306 — a .033 deviation.
Total Hits
Ernie Clement u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ernie Clement is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.. The #10 stadium in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 12.3-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for hurlers.. Ernie Clement's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86.9-mph EV last season has fallen to 84.2-mph.. Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 45.5% to 39.9%.
PIT
@
DET
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total RBIs (+475)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 16th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.5-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Spencer Horwitz o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.5-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Spencer Horwitz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against River Ryan in today's matchup.. As it relates to plate discipline, Spencer Horwitz's ability is quite good, sporting a 1.42 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 91st percentile.
CLE
@
KC
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Isaac Collins o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1200)
Projection 0.09
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The switch-hitting Isaac Collins will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Parker Messick.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Isaac Collins will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Isaac Collins has been unlucky this year, posting a .292 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .308 — a .016 gap.
Total Home Runs
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+650)
Projection 0.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Salvador Perez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Salvador Perez will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Salvador Perez will hold that advantage today.. Salvador Perez has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10.3% seasonal rate to 20% in the last week's worth of games.
LAA
@
SEA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 6th-best hitter in the game.. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
Total Bases
Zach Neto u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the worst ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today.. Logan Gilbert will have the handedness advantage against Zach Neto today.. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Zach Neto in today's matchup.
ATL
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Janson Junk o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+132)
Projection 3.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats across the board, and Janson Junk will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 7th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 118° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.
COL
@
CHW
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Tommy Pham u0.5 Total Hits (+202)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Tommy Pham has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 11% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season.. The weather report predicts the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. This year, there has been a decline in Tommy Pham's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.24 ft/sec last year to 26.12 ft/sec currently.. Tommy Pham's 7.3° launch angle (a reliable stat to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in the league: 6th percentile.
Strikeouts Thrown
Anthony Kay o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-152)
Projection 4.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Colorado Rockies have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Hunter Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar, Jordan Beck).. The weather report predicts the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Anthony Kay will hold that advantage today.. Anthony Kay's 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 83rd percentile among all starting pitchers.. Anthony Kay's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (60.3% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
STL
@
MIL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Jake Bauers is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. The 7th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors are found in American Family Field.. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+450)
Projection 0.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Nolan Gorman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob Misiorowski in today's matchup.. Placing in the 79th percentile, the hardest ball Nolan Gorman has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 111.9 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.
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Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jake Burger o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Burger is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #9 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Jake Burger has been unlucky this year, putting up a .315 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .011 discrepancy.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
