Baltimore @ Seattle Picks & Props

T-Mobile Park projects as the #29 ballpark in the majors for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to less offense. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most favorable for pitching of all games today. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gunnar Henderson today. Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 96.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 83.4-mph in the past week's worth of games.

When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Ryan O'Hearn has been pinch hit for 20% of the time. T-Mobile Park projects as the #29 ballpark in the majors for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to less offense. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most favorable for pitching of all games today. Ryan O'Hearn will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. J.P. Crawford will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Corbin Burnes in today's matchup. J.P. Crawford will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Ty France will hold that advantage in today's game.

Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. In the last 14 days, Jorge Mateo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.2-mph over the course of the season to 94.3-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Luke Raley has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. Hitting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Luke Raley will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Luke Raley will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Adley Rutschman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. In the last week's worth of games, Adley Rutschman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.6% up to 15.4%. Adley Rutschman's launch angle this season (17.5°) is considerably higher than his 12.5° figure last season.

Mitch Garver is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Mitch Garver will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Mitch Garver has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last season's 91.4-mph mark. Mitch Garver has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.2-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal average of 95.8-mph.

James McCann has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. When it comes to his batting average, James McCann has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .216 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .262. The standard deviation of James McCann's launch angle since the start of last season (25.1°) is in the 93rd percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher batting average on balls in play.

Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Mitch Haniger will hold that advantage in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mitch Haniger's true offensive skill to be a .310, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .038 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .272 wOBA.

Cedric Mullins II will have the handedness advantage over Bryce Miller in today's game. Cedric Mullins II is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP. Cedric Mullins II pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Cedric Mullins II has been unlucky this year, putting up a .277 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .035 difference.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. In the past 7 days, Anthony Santander's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11% up to 25%. Anthony Santander has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 94.8-mph over the last week.

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today's game. This season, Cal Raleigh has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96 mph compared to last year's 93.5 mph mark. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Cal Raleigh's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96-mph over the course of the season to 99-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 3rd-best batter in the majors when assessing his BABIP skill. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. Julio Rodriguez will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Over the last two weeks, Julio Rodriguez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93-mph over the course of the season to 104-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heston Kjerstad in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Heston Kjerstad is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. Heston Kjerstad will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Miller today. Heston Kjerstad is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

Jordan Westburg's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today. Jordan Westburg's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 92.6-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 88.4-mph over the last week.

Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Josh Rojas will have the upper hand in today's game. Josh Rojas will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Josh Rojas's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 41.9% to 48.6%. Over the last 7 days, Josh Rojas's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Ryan Mountcastle is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Ryan Mountcastle has put up a .268 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ranked in the 87th percentile, Ryan Mountcastle has one of the highest average exit velocities in baseball this year (91.5-mph).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 17th-best batter in MLB when estimating his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Miller in today's game. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Colton Cowser has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams today.