New York @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field grades out as the #28 venue in MLB for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Marcus Stroman will have the handedness advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Yandy Diaz generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Marcus Stroman. In the last 7 days, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 91.4 mph to 79.9 mph.

Tropicana Field grades out as the #28 venue in MLB for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Aaron Judge will not have the upper hand in today's game. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 81st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Aaron Judge will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Alex Verdugo will have an edge today. Alex Verdugo has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Alex Verdugo's launch angle lately (22.7° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit higher than his 10.3° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Rice in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Benjamin Rice is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The 5th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Benjamin Rice will have the upper hand today. Over the past 7 days, Benjamin Rice's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 17.8% up to 38.5%.

Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Trent Grisham will have an edge in today's game. Trent Grisham has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.1-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 89.5-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Siri has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year's 94-mph EV. Jose Siri's launch angle in recent games (36.7° over the past week) is quite a bit better than his 16° seasonal angle.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in the league. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. The 5th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Juan Soto will have an edge today. The Barrel% of Juan Soto has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 18.4% this season.

The 5th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. Batting from the opposite that Marcus Stroman throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have an edge today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Posting a .277 batting average this year, Ben Rortvedt finds himself in the 81st percentile.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Isaac Paredes generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Marcus Stroman. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's game. Last season, Isaac Paredes had an average launch angle of 18° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 22.4°.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Brandon Lowe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Marcus Stroman in today's game. Hitters such as Brandon Lowe with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Marcus Stroman who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today.

Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's game. Austin Wells has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Austin Wells has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 103.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 93.9-mph. Austin Wells's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (36.6° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 15.9° seasonal angle. Austin Wells has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .289 mark is a fair amount lower than his .327 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Batting from the opposite that Marcus Stroman throws from, Richie Palacios will have the upper hand today. Richie Palacios pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Richie Palacios will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.328) provides evidence that Richie Palacios has suffered from bad luck this year with his .307 actual wOBA. Richie Palacios has exhibited good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 87th percentile with a 1.71 K/BB rate.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Gleyber Torres ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Gleyber Torres is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Gleyber Torres's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 100.6-mph of late. In the last week, Gleyber Torres's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects DJ LeMahieu in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. DJ LeMahieu has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. In the past 7 days, DJ LeMahieu's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.8-mph over the course of the season to 99-mph of late. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.319) may lead us to conclude that DJ LeMahieu has had some very poor luck this year with his .248 actual wOBA. Sporting a 1.86 K/BB rate since the start of last season, DJ LeMahieu has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 83rd percentile.

The 5th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today's game. Randy Arozarena has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 9.2% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the past 7 days. Randy Arozarena's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, rising from 15.7% on the season to 30.8% in the past 7 days.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league. Jose Trevino has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.7-mph average to last year's 85.8-mph mark.

Anthony Volpe's BABIP talent is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Anthony Volpe has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.268) implies that Anthony Volpe has suffered from bad luck this year with his .249 actual batting average.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.