Miami @ Houston Picks & Props

Minute Maid Park ranks as the #22 ballpark in the game for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which often leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Considering Bryan Hoeing's large platoon split, Yainer Diaz will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game. Yainer Diaz has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

Minute Maid Park ranks as the #22 ballpark in the game for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which often leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Bryan De La Cruz has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences today. The Houston Astros outfield defense projects as the 4th-strongest among all the teams in action today.

Minute Maid Park ranks as the #22 ballpark in the game for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which often leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Because of Bryan Hoeing's large platoon split, Jose Altuve will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game. Jose Altuve has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week's worth of games.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the league. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage against Bryan Hoeing in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Hoeing has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game. Yordan Alvarez has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 14% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Among all stadiums, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past two weeks, Jake Meyers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 100.4-mph in recent games. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Jake Meyers has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 23.5° angle in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Loperfido in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Joey Loperfido will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Hoeing today... and moreover, Hoeing has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Joey Loperfido will hold that advantage today.

Xavier Edwards's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Among all stadiums, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. The switch-hitting Xavier Edwards will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Framber Valdez. Xavier Edwards has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs lately, striking balls between 23° and 34° 25% of the time in the past week's worth of games.

Among all stadiums, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Ali Sanchez will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Alex Bregman generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Hoeing. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's game. Alex Bregman has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.2-mph average.

Jeremy Pena's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeremy Pena is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Among all stadiums, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jeremy Pena's launch angle this season (9.1°) is quite a bit better than his 5.5° angle last year.

Among all stadiums, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Jonah Bride will have an edge today. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jonah Bride has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .224 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .291.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. There has been a significant improvement in Mauricio Dubon's launch angle from last year's 9.7° to 14.1° this year. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.1°, Mauricio Dubon has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 25.4° angle in the last two weeks. Mauricio Dubon has compiled a .291 batting average this year, placing in the 89th percentile.

Among all stadiums, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dane Myers in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Dane Myers is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Dane Myers will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Dane Myers has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph to 92-mph over the past 7 days. Over the last 7 days, Dane Myers has displayed impressive power, recording a a 14.3% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power).

Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Emmanuel Rivera will have an advantage in today's game. Over the last week, Emmanuel Rivera's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89-mph over the course of the season to 95.3-mph lately. Emmanuel Rivera's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 12.1% on the season to 22.2% over the last 7 days. Emmanuel Rivera has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .254 figure is considerably lower than his .289 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Burger is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Jake Burger will have an advantage in today's game. Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jake Burger has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.7-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 93.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Josh Bell is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Josh Bell has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last week's worth of games. Josh Bell's launch angle this year (12.3°) is a significant increase over his 8.7° mark last year. In the past week, Josh Bell's 35.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.2%.

Jon Singleton will have the handedness advantage against Bryan Hoeing in today's game... and even better, Hoeing has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jon Singleton will hold that advantage today. Jon Singleton's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 14.9% on the season to 38.5% in the last week. Grading out in the 94th percentile, the hardest ball Jon Singleton has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.4 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.