MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 13th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Will Benson is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.. Will Benson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 61% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams today.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 15° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Eugenio Suarez's 14.3% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) is in the 88th percentile since the start of last season.. Eugenio Suarez has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 21.9° angle is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (98th percentile).

 I am not high on Ryan Weathers, and I don’t think the Yankees are either, which is why it's more of a stopgap while the rest of the rotation gets healthy rather than an everyday guy. The pitch-to-contact guy who doesn’t get groundballs (bottom 40 percentile career) and historically bottom 30 percentile chase rate is one that a viable A's lineup can have success against.

The Yankees have five hitters with .375 or higher xwOBA against Springs in 20+ plate appearances, and his low-velocity fastball against a lineup that posted a 114 wRC+ vs LHP last season is a matchup where he probably manages things but gives up runs. Both pitchers will give up something here. I made this total exactly 9.

This matchup has gone Over in six of the last 10 head-to-heads. Detroit's lineup has genuine pop, and Minnesota has averaged over six runs per game in its last three home games against these Tigers.

Once both starters exit, the Minnesota Twins bullpen is walking hitters at a nearly 15% rate. Detroit's relief corps is meaningfully better across every underlying metric. Trust Flaherty and the Tigers' bullpen edge. 

Adrian Del Castillo is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 46°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.6-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Adrian Del Castillo will hold the platoon advantage against Nolan McLean in today's matchup.

Citi Field profiles as the #29 venue in the game for overall right-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. Among every team playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Luis Robert Jr.'s launch angle this season (5.5°) is quite a bit worse than his 18.3° angle last season.. Luis Robert Jr. has been cold of late, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The Kansas City Royals are trading as a -173 favorite at Pinnacle, and this price still isn’t short enough—I make them closer to a -220 favorite in this matchup against the Chicago White Sox. Seth Lugo features a deep arsenal, mixing seven different pitches, with his curveball serving as his primary weapon. That variety of off-speed pitches should create significant problems for a young White Sox lineup. The lineup is anchored by Munetaka Murakami, who thrives when he can hunt fastballs—but that’s not what he’ll be seeing from Lugo on Thursday. If Murakami isn’t able to provide power in the middle of the order, the White Sox offense looks much less threatening.

Although Bobby Witt Jr. has yet to go deep, he leads his team with a .409 xwOBA while ranking inside the Top 25 in baseball. He’s been unlucky, but positive regression should be coming soon. The hitting conditions at home are among the best on the slate, and he gets a favorable matchup against Anthony Kay, who has allowed a home run in each of his two starts and profiles as a contact-heavy arm. Kay is also giving up plenty of hard contact, with a 92.4 mph average exit velocity. The Chicago bullpen is also without three key arms. As the weather improves, Witt’s HR price is likely to drop below today’s number more consistently. This is a good spot to buy in on one of the top players in baseball in a strong matchup and favorable environment.