MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 8th-best ballpark in the majors for RHB home runs.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to higher offensive output.

Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 stadium in the game for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in MLB.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 16° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Reid Detmers throws from, Isaac Paredes will have an edge today.. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (48% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 16° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. When it comes to his home runs, Jorge Soler has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His 22.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 26.3.

Aaron Judge should probably always be the home run pick in a Yankee game, but he's been even better in his hometown park. Friday's blast was his fourth in five games in San Francisco, and his 1.455 OPS at Oracle Park is fifth highest in any stadium—and Coors Field is one of the four where he's hit better.

He's also a streaky home-run hitter. Over the last two seasons, 39 of his 111 home runs have come after he's already homered within the last day. He went deep on Friday.

New York pitchers have struck out 19 in 18 shutout innings and allowed one extra-base hit. The Giants, meanwhile, are already showing signs of frustration. Losing pitcher Robbie Ray seemed to take issue with former college coach Tony Vitello's rah-rah clubhouse speeches after yesterday's game.

The Atlanta Braves are off to a winning start after a thumping 6-0 victory last night, and Matt Olson wasted no time padding his stat line. The lefty slugger had two hits and a run in the opener, and he’s poised for a similar impact today. Olson has a .600 batting average across five at-bats against Kansas City Royals starter Michael Wacha, and he’s in a favorable spot in the Atlanta lineup, with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies hitting ahead of him and Austin Riley behind him. I like this price for Olson to help the Braves keep the scoreboard ticking over here. 

There was no sign of a sophomore slump from Drake Baldwin this spring, as he spent his time slapping piss missiles. He followed that up by crushing one against the Royals on Friday night. 

Wacha has a decent arsenal, but he becomes very FB/CH reliant against opposite-side hitters. Those two pitches accounted for two-thirds of his output vs. LHB last season, with a cutter mixed in some of the time.

Baldwin posted a 23% barrel rate and 74% hard-hit rate in spring training. If he’s going to see a limited pitch array, this price is exceptional value. 

 

Detroit is giving the pill to Jack Flaherty who had a 4.64 ERA in 31 starts last year. Flaherty has good swing-and-miss ability but gets rocked when batters make contact. He was in the bottom 20th percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rate and the Padres have a formidable lineup that rarely strikes out.  Meanwhile, Friars starter Randy Vasquez is due for major regression after posting a 5.37 xERA last year. He'll have a tough time navigating a Tigers lineup that has some dangerous hitters at the top.

It’s been a sleepy 1-for-8 start for Tatis Jr. in two disappointing San Diego losses this week, but the sight of Jack Flaherty on the mound for Detroit should stir him into action tonight. Tatis Jr. has an eye-catching 7-for-13 career record against Flaherty, including four doubles and two homers, and the Tigers starter could be vulnerable after posting a 4.64 ERA in 2025. The Padres need a spark from their talisman here, and Tatis Jr.’s speed on the basepaths is a recipe for extra-base hits. I’ll take the even odds for him to deliver.

Teoscar Hernandez has been quiet to start the year. That could change in game three, given that he’s had success against Rodriguez in the past, batting 10-for-26 with three home runs and a 1.293 OPS.

The outfielder is posting strong underlying numbers early (.348 xBA and a 74th percentile bat speed). He’s mashed lefties in his career (136 wRC+), which will play against Rodriguez, who surrendered 1.57 HR/9 to right-handed bats in 2025.

The veteran southpaw isn’t known for his punchout prowess, but he’s had success in that department against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Across a large sample size of 131 at-bats against LA’s projected hitters, he’s racked up a respectable 26% K rate.

Bryan Woo was one of Seattle's better pitchers last year, and he comes into this one with two solid spring training outings under his belt. I'm banking on pitching being the difference in this game. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Joey Cantillo to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.. Joey Cantillo will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.. Among all starting pitchers, Joey Cantillo's fastball velocity of 91.1 mph grades out in the 20th percentile since the start of last season.. Joey Cantillo's 1842-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 4th percentile out of all SPs.

Connolly Early has a live arm but had a tough spring. Rhett Lowder missed a full season and was hit hard this spring. We’ll likely see the bullpens early, and Boston has the better one. 

Tatsuya Imai makes his much-awaited MLB debut, and the Angels have come out of the gate swinging. Jack Kochanowicz has command issues, but Houston's offense and the rookie pitcher are too difficult to trust.

Slade Cecconi is coming off a strong spring. He has a tall order against this Seattle lineup, but he should get enough run support as Emerson Hancock has command issues with a career 1.5 home runs per nine.