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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 13, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.22 |
+158 
|
o8.5 -128 
|
+1.5 -130 
|
|
5.23 |
-170 
|
u9.0 -114 
|
-1.5 +120 
|
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rockies last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1-2 in Tigers last 9 vs. National League West.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.83 |
+110
|
o9.0 -105
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
5.35 |
-125 
|
u9.5 -124
|
-1.5 +160
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts on grass.
- Over is 7-1 in Painters last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts overall.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 13-1-1 in Holmes' last 15 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Holmes' last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+176)
o0.5+176
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.72 |
+160 
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -136
|
|
5.57 |
-175
|
u8.0 -119
|
-1.5 +122
|
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Mets are 5-0 in Scotts last 5 starts as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.84 |
+115
|
o9.0 -112
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
5.26 |
-120
|
u9.5 -130
|
-1.5 +165
|
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Irvins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 vs. American League West.
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.04 |
+130
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.43 |
-148
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Rogers' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Rogers' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Ceases last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
+120
|
o7.5 -117
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.38 |
-130
|
u8.0 -117
|
-1.5 +168
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Astros last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 5-0 in Wesneskis last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
o1.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
-137
|
o8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
3.80 |
+120
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -140
|
LA Dodgers
- Over is 7-0 in Wrobleskis last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Wrobleskis last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 8-0 in Marlins last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Top Projection
Max Muncy u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
u1.5-190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.61 |
+115
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.49 |
-125
|
u8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +176
|
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Prielipps last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Prielipps last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+172)
o0.5+172
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.99 |
+165 
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
4.25 |
-190
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +115
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 9-1 in Reds last 10 vs. National League Central.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
-125
|
o8.5 -108
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.05 |
+117
|
u8.5 -103
|
+1.5 -139
|
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox last 10 games as a road favorite.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in McGreevys last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in McGreevys last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0-1 in McGreevys last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Colson Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+186
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.38 |
+135
|
o6.0 -167
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
3.98 |
-140
|
u7.0 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in Boyds last 8 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Boyds last 9 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Ian Happ o0.5 Total RBIs (+254)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+158
|
o7.0 -122
|
+2.5 -250
|
|
4.37 |
-184
|
u7.5 -120
|
-2.5 +200
|
Kansas City
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Camerons last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Tolles last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games following a win.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+271)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.61 |
-130
|
o9.0 -110
|
+1.5 -286
|
|
5.48 |
+115
|
u9.5 -125
|
-1.5 +225
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0-1 in Millers last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 road starts.
Athletics
- are 5-0 in Lopezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Lopezs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Lopezs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 9-1 in last 10 vs. American League West.
Top Projection
J.P. Crawford o0.5 Total Home Runs (+950)
o0.5+950
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.72 |
+115
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.87 |
-125
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +164
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rangers last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rangers last 5 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Arizona
- Under is 3-0-2 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 7-0 in Rodriguezs last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Gabriel Moreno o0.5 Total RBIs (+207)
o0.5+207
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
-126
|
o6.5 -165
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.62 |
+110
|
u8.5 -175
|
+1.5 -160
|
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall.
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0 in Webbs last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
o0.5+194
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.76 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox last 10 games as a road favorite.
- White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 games as an underdog.
- Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.12 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.35 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 home starts.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lodolos last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Lodolos last 8 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.67 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.13 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in Sorianos last 7 starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.57 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as a road favorite.
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.37 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.63 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.83 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 10-2 in Braves last 12 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Braves last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 home games.
- Over is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.32 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 overall.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.78 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.14 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.87 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 6-0 in Mariners last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Mariners last 9 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
LA Angels
- Under is 8-1-1 in Angels last 10 vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.13 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 on grass.
Arizona
- Under is 7-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 overall.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
COL
@
DET
Sun, Sep 13 • 12:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+148)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mickey Moniak is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Comerica Park is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Mickey Moniak will hold the platoon advantage over Jackson Jobe in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Max Clark u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Maxwell Clark is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Comerica Park ranks as the #23 ballpark in baseball for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In today's game, Maxwell Clark is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.8% rate (79th percentile).. Over the past two weeks, Maxwell Clark's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 88.2 mph to 85.6 mph.. Maxwell Clark's launch angle in recent games (-6° over the last 7 days) is a significant dropoff from his 17.1° seasonal angle.
PHI
@
ATL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Matt Olson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+270)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Matt Olson is on the verge of a breakout.
He has posted a 22.2% barrel rate and 97.3 mile per hour average exit velocity against fastballs and sliders thrown by righties the past 25 games. Those just happen to be Andrew Painter’s primary pitches against lefties.
Zooming out, Olson's season ISO is .329 against fastballs and .629 against the slider. Downright absurd.
Total
u9.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Under is appealing and playable to 59%.
Grant Holmes' barrel rate is trending in the right direction – 5.6% the past month vs. 8.5% this season – and the Philadelphia Phillies are struggling to hit for power, an encouraging combination.
Andrew Painter has quietly pitched to a 3.55 xERA the last 30 days. He’s in a much better spot than early in the year, and should avoid major damage.
NYM
@
NYY
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Aaron Judge o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-117)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Aaron Judge’s hits, runs and RBI prop is a rare opportunity to grab the Yankees captain at a reasonable price. Judge has surpassed this prop in more than 57% of his 373 elite ratings over the last three seasons, while going over 2.5 nearly 46% of the time and homering almost 30%. He draws Mets right-hander Christian Scott, who has struggled against right-handed hitters on the road, allowing a .294 batting average, .412 SLG and .366 wOBA. Judge has recorded three hits in four games since returning from injury and continues to generate plenty of hard contact. The play is worth targeting at -120 or better.
Total Home Runs
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total Home Runs (+266)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Aaron Judge stands out as the top home run target against Christian Scott and the Mets. Scott has struggled more against right-handed hitters, allowing them to hit .294 with a .412 SLG and .366 wOBA on the road this season. Judge enters today with an elite Batters-Box rating, a spot where he homers nearly 30% of the time. While he has yet to leave the yard since returning from injury, his recent contact has been encouraging. Each of his last five balls in play has left the bat at 93 MPH or harder, including three at 100.3 MPH or better. The bleachers are calling.
LAA
@
WAS
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It's not a bad day for dingers in Washington with Grayson Rodriguez on the bump. He has the third-worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today and has given up multiple homers in back-to-back starts. It's a big-total game that could see the Nats' healthy offense stack some runs. The best value on the home side is CJ Abrams at 20.4%, with a fair probability of 23.5%. He's slugging .461 in the second half and leads the team with 10 dingers. He got over the toughest one to get, his 30th, and is looking to finish a breakout season with a great home-run matchup at home this afternoon. James Wood and CJ Abrams should not be four percentage points apart in home-run pricing.
Moneyline
LAA (+103)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Grayson Rodriguez brings significant bat-missing upside against a depleted Washington lineup scuffling with an 80 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Washington's bullpen has completely imploded (7.97 ERA, 4.54 SIERA, 11.9% BB%), leaving Jake Irvin with zero margin for error in an even-money pick'em spot.
BAL
@
TOR
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:37 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+305)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Strikeouts Thrown
Dylan Cease o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
HOU
@
TB
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jose Altuve o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jose Altuve's batting average ability is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Altuve is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the best ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs.. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jose Altuve's launch angle lately (22.8° over the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 10.6° seasonal angle.
Total Home Runs
Jose Altuve o0.5 Total Home Runs (+550)
Projection 0.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the best ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs.. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jose Altuve's launch angle lately (22.8° over the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 10.6° seasonal angle.
LAD
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Justin Wrobleski will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Stowers today.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams on the slate today.. Kyle Stowers has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 12.5% seasonal rate to 20% over the last two weeks.
Total RBIs
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+179)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his batting average talent, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 13th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Freddie Freeman will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Posting a .273 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Freddie Freeman finds himself in the 80th percentile.. Posting a .363 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Freddie Freeman has performed in the 91st percentile.
CLE
@
MIN
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Royce Lewis u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Royce Lewis is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.. The #6 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The 10th-deepest CF fences among all parks are found in Target Field.. In the league, the 5th-tallest average fence height are at Target Field.. The weather report predicts the 2nd-most favorable pitching conditions of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total RBIs
Travis Bazzana o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Travis Bazzana is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Considering Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Travis Bazzana will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. Among every team today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.
CIN
@
MIL
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jake Bauers u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jake Bauers has been pulled from the game early 11% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Despite posting a .384 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Bauers has been very fortunate given the .050 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.
Total Bases
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sal Stewart's batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Sal Stewart is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. American Family Field ranks as the #8 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. American Family Field has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.
CHW
@
STL
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Sean Burke throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge in today's matchup.
Total Bases
JB
Joshua Baez u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #2 park in the majors for suppressing home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.. Batting from the same side that Sean Burke throws from, Joshua Baez meets a tough challenge in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Joshua Baez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Sean Burke.. Joshua Baez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 12.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 7.7% over the last 14 days.. Joshua Baez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 94.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 89.6-mph over the last week.
PIT
@
CHC
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:20 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-117)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one of MLB’s most dangerous hitters all season, and he finds himself in a favorable spot against Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler. Over his last 30 at-bats against righties, Crow-Armstrong is batting .320 with a .720 SLG and 1.120 OPS, while generating a nearly 58% hard-hit rate and 21.1% barrel rate. Chandler has also struggled against left-handed hitters, who own a .300 xBA, .487 xSLG and .284 ISO over his last 60 faced. With Crow-Armstrong’s recent production and matchup working in his favor, there is value on his hits, runs and RBI prop at -120 or better.
Total Home Runs
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Tom Oldfield
Betting Analyst
Target Alex Bregman's scorching September form - he’s gone 13-for-37 this month, with two dingers and a 1.039 OPS.
With one hit off Chandler in a small sample size, and extra-base blasts off a couple of Pittsburgh relievers, Bregman offers great value here, and he’s smashed 18 of his 25 homers off righties.
KC
@
BOS
Sun, Sep 13 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average talent, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate today (94%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Bobby Witt Jr. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Payton Tolle in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate today (94%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.1% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. There has been a significant improvement in Vinnie Pasquantino's launch angle from last season's 16.2° to 20.3° this season.
SEA
@
ATH
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+267)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It's not every day you get the most probable home run on the board at a +EV price, but that's what's happening today with Cal Raleigh at a fair probability of 33%. I think we can thank the NFL slate for this sneaky price. It's the best setting in baseball for dingers today, and Cal Raleigh is making up for lost time with nine home runs over the last 30 days and a top-20 slugging percentage of .628. He's also owned Jacob Lopez, with three home runs in five plate appearances. Do you hear that? That's the sound of Lopez's knees knocking together at the thought of facing Raleigh today.
Total Home Runs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+318)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Shea Langeliers is back in the Athletics' lineup, and at around 24% today, it's a great spot to back him to go yard with a fair probability of 28.6%. It's a Sutter Health Park game, which is always good for the taters. It's no surprise it's the best park today for home runs by a wide margin, per Ball Park Pal. At home, Langeliers slugs 100 points better than he does on the road. The next green check is the pitching matchup. Bryce Miller has the worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today and is not in great form. In the second half of this year, he owns the 13th-worst HR/9 among MLB starters and the 28th-worst HR/FB rate. Miller hasn't gotten to 15 outs in four straight starts.
TEX
@
AZ
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Josh Jung o1.5 Total Bases (+153)
Projection 1.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Josh Jung is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #3 ballpark in the game for boosting offensive stats to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Josh Jung will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eduardo Rodriguez in today's game.
Total Bases
Brandon Nimmo o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #3 ballpark in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.
SD
@
SF
Sun, Sep 13 • 7:20 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-122)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
Webb's impressive groundball rate gives him a solid floor. Also, his above-average chase rate creates a combination that can turn hard-hit balls into double plays and limit extra-base damage. One of these offenses hasn’t been great all season and sees a pitcher who looks like his old self, while the other will face a tough matchup. With seven runs providing some margin for late scoring and Pivetta’s workload creating the only major concern, Under 7 is playable at 51% or better.
Total Home Runs
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+351)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
Rafael Devers is the homer pick and it's hard to argue anyone else.
He has 35 dingers and 96 RBIs this season and has been one of the hottest hitters in the sport recently. Pivetta’s four-seam fastball has also allowed a .391 xSLG and a 51.9% hard-hit rate, giving Devers a path to damage if Pivetta falls behind and has to challenge him with velocity. I'll take him to go deep even if it is the only run the Giants score all night.
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First Five Innings MLB Picks
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MLB Picks And Parlays
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