MLB Picks

Cedric Mullins is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Cedric Mullins will have an advantage today.. Cedric Mullins is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals only has 1 same-handed RP.. Bats such as Cedric Mullins with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Michael McGreevy who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Crow-Armstrong smacked 31 bombs last season, and he's 7-for-9 lifetime against Miles Mikolas with five home runs. He'll go deep today. 

A common theme for me is to find whenever Miles Mikolas is pitching and fade him. The Cubs' offense isn't going to be the problem this season, and I expect Cade Horton to receive plenty of run support. 

Springs allowed 28 home runs last season, fourth-most in all of baseball. He throws a healthy dose of fastballs, which is a pitch Springer handled extremely well last season, sporting a 1.076 OPS against the pitch with a team-high 14 home runs. He hit them hard too, with a .746 xSLG and a hard-hit rate of 55%. 

Clement was one of the most dangerous hitters against lefties last season, posting a team-high .900 OPS with 26 extra-base hits. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jacob deGrom to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.. Jacob deGrom will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Jake Burger is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for home runs.. Jake Burger has performed at a clip of 26.9 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, grading out in the 79th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Since the start of last season, Jake Burger's 13.2% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 84th percentile among his peers.

Cowser has clubbed 40 homers across the last two seasons, and he had 16 last year in only 92 games. The youngster is 4-for-10 lifetime against Taj Bradley with a long ball. 

Pete Alonso projects as the 12th-best home run batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Pete Alonso has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's game.

Throwing 94 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season on average, David Peterson places in the 88th percentile.. Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 26.3% underlying K%.. The #9 venue in the majors for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.. Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to drop to the 2nd-lowest level of the day at 45°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball.. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Juan Soto will have an advantage today.. Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Juan Soto will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Suarez smacked 49 homers in 2025, and he's still one of the most feared power hitters in the game. He's 7-for-13 against righty Sonny Gray, going deep twice. 

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 14th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. The #1 ballpark in the game for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.4% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Eugenio Suarez will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 8th-best ballpark in the majors for RHB home runs.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to higher offensive output.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 stadium in the game for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in MLB.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 17° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Reid Detmers throws from, Isaac Paredes will have an edge today.. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (48% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 17° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 4th-best ballpark in the league for right-handed batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. The San Francisco Giants infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #4 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Mahle throws from, Cody Bellinger will have the upper hand in today's game.

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Reynaldo Lopez in the 81st percentile among all starters in MLB.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 10th-best field in the game for strikeouts.. Low humidity has a small but significant link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the least humidity of all games today at 20%.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hurlers.. Reynaldo Lopez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his metrics across the board.

Ozzie Albies is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best park in the majors for left-handed base hits.. Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Ozzie Albies will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When assessing his home run talent, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all stadiums, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most favorable for hitting on the slate.

Teoscar Hernandez has been quiet to start the year. That could change in game three, given that he’s had success against Rodriguez in the past, batting 10-for-26 with three home runs and a 1.293 OPS.

The outfielder is posting strong underlying numbers early (.348 xBA and a 74th percentile bat speed). He’s mashed lefties in his career (136 wRC+), which will play against Rodriguez, who surrendered 1.57 HR/9 to right-handed bats in 2025.

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Arizona Diamondbacks could use a strong outing from Eduardo Rodriguez on Saturday. 

The veteran southpaw isn’t known for his punchout prowess, but he’s had success in that department against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Across a large sample size of 131 at-bats against LA’s projected hitters, he’s racked up a respectable 26% K rate.

A year ago, he tossed 4+ strikeouts in 20 of his 29 starts, yet there is plus money available on him doing so on Saturday.

He was in fine form during the World Baseball Classic, throwing four scoreless against Team USA, and therefore could have a fine start to the season.

 

Bryan Woo was one of Seattle's better pitchers last year, and he comes into this one with two solid spring training outings under his belt. I'm banking on pitching being the difference in this game. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryan Woo to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.. Because of his large platoon split, Bryan Woo encounters a tough challenge going up against 7 batters in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in today's outing.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bryan Woo has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 72.8% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.. Considering the 0.56 deviation between Bryan Woo's 9.55 K/9 and his 8.99 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform worse going forward.