Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on June 16, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
MIA
@
PHI
Tue, Jun 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts while posting a solid 3.34 xERA and holding opposing hitters to 29.0% squared-up contact rate, so I’m anticipating him limiting the Marlins tonight given their middling 98 wRC+ against southpaws. I’m also expecting Philly stars Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper to lead the way offensively. Schwarber has teed off on righties to the tune of a .380 wOBA and .319 ISO, and Harper has been every bit as good with respective .415 and .301 marks.
TOR
@
BOS
Tue, Jun 16 • 6:45 PM ET
KC
@
WAS
Tue, Jun 16 • 6:45 PM ET
CHW
@
NYY
Tue, Jun 16 • 7:05 PM ET
NYM
@
CIN
Tue, Jun 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Reds starter Brady Singer has surrendered the second-highest blast contact rate with the seventh-highest xERA among starters with at least 50 innings this season, so I’m anticipating an improving New York offense to have success at the dish tonight. The Mets rank eighth in baseball in xWOBA over the past two weeks, after all, and star Juan Soto has been automatic against righties with a .420 wOBA and .290 ISO since the beginning of the 2024 campaign. Still, Singer has picked up five or more strikeouts in four of his past six starts with his strikeout percentage climbing to 20.9% after posting a 13.1% mark through his first seven outings.
Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+222)
It's not often bettors get +EV on a +222 home run prop, but THE BAT is projecting 0.43 home runs from Soto today, which is a massive number and leads all hitters on the slate by a substantial margin. Soto gets a plus matchup against Singer, who owns the seventh-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters over the last 30 days. He's also struggling to miss bats at home, posting just a 4.9 K/9 on his own mound. Soto has been scorching the ball lately, ranking 14th in Blast Contact% over the last 30 days. This is a buy to +180.
SF
@
ATL
Tue, Jun 16 • 7:15 PM ET
FirstInning o0.5 (-126)
This is one of my favorite YRFI spots on the board. Giants starter Adrian Houser enters the day as the worst pitcher on Batters-Box and has struggled mightily in the first inning, posting a 9.00 ERA while allowing opponents to slash .302/.409/.698 through 13 starts. Braves right-hander Grant Holmes is not in much better shape, carrying the third-worst pitcher rating and a 4.83 first-inning ERA. With seven strongly rated Braves bats, five highly rated Giants bats, and a combined nine elite-rated hitters in this matchup, there is plenty of firepower to cash a first-inning run.
CLE
@
MIL
Tue, Jun 16 • 7:40 PM ET
o8.5 (+105)
Neither starter typically works deep into games, putting additional pressure on two shaky bullpens. Cleveland's relievers own a 4.65 xERA and 4.73 BB/9 over the last week, while Milwaukee's bullpen has posted a 4.84 FIP and surrendered 1.99 home runs per nine innings recently.
CLE (+136)
Robert Gasser's underlying numbers are extremely concerning, as he owns a 7.24 FIP this season and 8.10 FIP across his last two starts. The left-hander has also surrendered 2.95 HR/9 and allowed more than half of his recent contact in the air, giving Cleveland an opportunity to generate offense.
SD
@
STL
Tue, Jun 16 • 7:45 PM ET
STL (-110)
One team has the flashy names and star power, while the other should be a bigger favorite than the market suggests. The St. Louis Cardinals are trading at -110, but I make them closer to -125, which is why I'm backing them in this spot. Michael King gets the start for San Diego and relies heavily on his sweeping slider. It's a tough pitch for right-handed hitters, but it becomes more vulnerable against left-handed bats because it breaks into their barrels. That's significant because the Cardinals should have five left-handed hitters in the lineup. I also like how St. Louis is constructed offensively. The Cardinals can alternate left-handed and right-handed hitters throughout the order, making it difficult for King to settle into a rhythm with his pitch locations and sequencing. That constant change in handedness should help neutralize his best pitch and gives St. Louis value at the current number.
u8.5 (-125)
San Diego's bullpen has been elite lately, posting a 2.30 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 0.66 HR/9 over the last week. The Padres are also batting just .234 with a .172 ISO over their last six games, while St. Louis enters with a fully rested bullpen after Monday's complete-game shutout.
MIN
@
TEX
Tue, Jun 16 • 8:05 PM ET
COL
@
CHC
Tue, Jun 16 • 8:05 PM ET
o9.5 (-110)
Ryan Feltner owns a 3.86 ERA over the past 30 days despite an alarming 4.73 xFIP and 5.03 SIERA. His numbers will head south sooner than later.
The wheels have completely fallen off for Edward Cabrera, with the veteran righty conceding at least three runs in eight of his past 10 games.
Play to -125.
CHC -1.5 (+100)
DET
@
HOU
Tue, Jun 16 • 8:10 PM ET
u8.0 (-110)
Hunter Brown looked spectacular in his two early starts, posting K/9s of 12 or higher in each game with xERAs of 1.78 and 1.93. While the Houston Astros have hit for power against lefties, they sit 20th in OBP. We shouldn’t expect an explosion of runs. Play Under 8 to -120.
HOU (-155)
Framber Valdez ranks in the 30th percentile in Pitcher Run Value and has struck batters out at the lowest rate of his career. The Houston Astros sit fourth in ISO and have struck out at the fourth lowest rate against left-handed pitching. They should have success at the plate and provide Hunter Brown ample run support in his first game back. Back Houston to -165.
LAA
@
AZ
Tue, Jun 16 • 9:40 PM ET
BAL
@
SEA
Tue, Jun 16 • 9:40 PM ET
PIT
@
ATH
Tue, Jun 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Look for the Athletics to tee off on Pirates righty Mitch Keller at the Sutter Health Park launching pad. He conveniently sports the ninth-highest xERA and ninth-lowest strikeout percentage among qualified starting pitchers, and Keller has fanned four or fewer batters in five of his past seven starts. The Athletics also pace the majors in wOBA while striking out at the fourth-lowest clip in baseball at home, and outfielder Tyler Soderstrom has posted a rock-solid .379 wOBA and .220 ISO against righties at Sutter Health the past two years and hits in the heart of the order.
o10.5 (-120)
Everything points to runs at Sutter Health Park tonight. Mitch Keller has been getting crushed, allowing 18 earned runs over his last three starts while carrying an 8.70 ERA across his last six. The A's counter with Jack Perkins, who owns a 6.20 ERA and rarely works deep into games. With both bullpens struggling, the A's swinging hot bats, and winds blowing out, this sets up as a prime Over spot.
TB
@
LAD
Tue, Jun 16 • 10:10 PM ET
Justin Wrobleski’s .243 BABIP, 77.9% strand rate, and 6.1% HR/FB rate are all begging for regression. Both bullpens have been atrocious - L.A. has the third-worst bullpen ERA (6.57) this month, while Tampa has the sixth-worst (5.63) - so I love the plus money on the Over with the wind blowing out to dead center.
With the wind blowing out in homer-friendly Dodger Stadium, Drew Rasmussen's profile (plenty of strikeouts, few walks, soft contact on the ground) is the perfect antidote. Justin Wrobleski, on the other hand, doesn't miss bats and allows loud contact in the air. He throws his slider 33% of the time, but the Rays destroy sliders (fifth in runs above average).
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
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