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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 9, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
+110 
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.92 |
-117 
|
u8.5 -103 
|
-1.5 +160 
|
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games following a win.
Detroit
- Tigers are 5-0 in Monteros last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Monteros last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-1 in Monteros last 10 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Royce Lewis o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.04 |
-175
|
o9.0 -125
|
-1.5 -106
|
|
4.86 |
+155
|
u9.5 -115 
|
+1.5 -105
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in Fishers last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Brady Basso o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
o1.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.02 |
-115
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +145 
|
|
3.98 |
+106
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -160
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Pallantes last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
San Francisco
- Over is 6-0 in Giants last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+231)
o0.5+231
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.86 |
+165
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -135 
|
|
4.94 |
-171
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +128
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Kents last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Nationals last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games following a loss.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Padres are 5-0 in Buehlers last 5 home starts.
- Padres are 4-0 in Buehlers last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Padres last 8 home games.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.82 |
+135
|
o7.5 -118
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
4.29 |
-145
|
u8.0 -113
|
-1.5 +146
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 games following a win.
Seattle
- Over is 6-0 in Mariners last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Mariners last 8 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.20 |
-110
|
o8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.10 |
+100
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. American League East.
Baltimore
- Under is 6-0 in Bazs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Bazs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.60 |
+106
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -190 
|
|
4.92 |
-120
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +165
|
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Stocks last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Miami
- Over is 5-0-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Junks last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.86 |
+135
|
o7.5 -128
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.95 |
-150
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +135
|
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Browns last 6 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Astros last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 starts overall.
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0-1 in Sanchezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Phillies last 7 games following a loss.
- Under is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
o0.5+175
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.29 |
+180
|
o9.0 -115
|
+1.5 -110
|
|
5.75 |
-210
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +102
|
LA Angels
- Under is 7-0 in Johnsons last 7 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0 in Johnsons last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
- Red Sox are 8-0 in Bennetts last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+213
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.20 |
+210 
|
o9.0 -110
|
+4.0 -455
|
|
6.36 |
-240
|
u12.5 -500
|
-4.0 +270
|
Colorado
- Rockies are 8-0 in Suganos last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 on grass.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.72 |
+106
|
o7.0 -200
|
+2.5 -334
|
|
4.86 |
-120
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.5 +250
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Atlanta
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+212)
o0.5+212
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.92 |
+125
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.88 |
-130
|
u11.5 -400
|
-1.5 +155
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-2 in Pirates last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in Martins last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 7-1 in White Sox last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 home games.
Top Projection
Lake Bachar o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+155)
o2.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
-115
|
o8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.63 |
+108
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -164
|
Arizona
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 on grass.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
Kansas City
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 home games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
+116
|
o7.0 -155
|
+1.5 -184
|
|
4.53 |
-130
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +160
|
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 4-0 in Gausmans last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Gausmans last 4 starts.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 8-0 in Hendersons last 8 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Hendersons last 7 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Brewers are 8-0 in Hendersons last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+209)
o0.5+209
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.70 |
+240
|
o8.0 -148
|
+4.5 -334
|
|
5.80 |
-285
|
u9.0 -125
|
-4.5 +255
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0-1 in Reds last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 during game 3 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
JJ Bleday o0.5 Total RBIs (+249)
o0.5+249
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.91 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.19 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Rays are 6-0 in Martinezs last 6 road starts.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts overall.
- Braves are 5-0 in Perezs last 5 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.40 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.41 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Astros last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 8-1 in Wheelers last 9 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in Wheelers last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Phillies are 8-2 in Wheelers last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.52 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-1 in Mariners last 8 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.46 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
6.19 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Colorado
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Feltners last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 on grass.
NY Yankees
- Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.83 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 7-1 in White Sox last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
MIN
@
DET
Wed, Sep 9 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Riley Greene o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Riley Greene brings real home-run value with three long balls over his last six games and a .500 ISO during that span. His fly-ball profile lines up well against Matthews’ recent air-contact issues, while Minnesota’s bullpen also gives Greene another path if Matthews exits early.
Total
u8.5 (-105)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Under 8.5 fits because neither offense is in great form, and both lineups have lacked consistent home-run power lately. Matthews’ homer issues are the main concern, but the bullpens have limited long balls, and Montero gives Detroit a stable enough starting point.
TOR
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 9 • 3:05 PM ET
Spread
TOR -1.5 (-115)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
The Blue Jays enter Wednesday 7-3 over their last 10 games, scoring 52 runs while batting .277 with a .347 OBP. Five of those seven wins came by multiple runs, and I like Toronto to create that separation again against baseball’s worst pitching staff.
Brady Basso will open for the Athletics, but he hasn't worked more than three innings in any appearance this season. That puts a large portion of this game on an Oakland staff that has struggled badly to keep the ball in the yard at home.
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+300)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Kazuma Okamoto is the shortest home run price on the board, and this is a spot where I’m willing to pay for the best power bat. Okamoto hit his 30th home run of the season Tuesday and appears locked into one of his power surges.
He also draws an excellent opening matchup against Basso, who's allowed all three of his home runs this season to right-handed hitters. Basso leans heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it roughly 44% of the time, and that plays directly into Okamoto’s strength. He owns a .562 slugging percentage against four-seamers with a 52.6% hard-hit rate against the pitch.
STL
@
SF
Wed, Sep 9 • 3:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Oracle Park has the 2nd-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game.
Total RBIs
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Eldridge in the 91st percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Bryce Eldridge is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Oracle Park has the 2nd-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Bryce Eldridge will have the handedness advantage over Andre Pallante in today's game.
WAS
@
SD
Wed, Sep 9 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.96
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 10th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (+138)
Projection 1.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.
TEX
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 9 • 4:10 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-118)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Texas ranks fourth in wOBA against lefties for the season, and the Rangers also sit eighth in the overall metric and sixth in xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.6 runs per game. So, with Seattle rookie Kade Anderson also underwhelming at the highest level with a 5.14 xFIP, negative pitch values on both his fastball and changeup and an unintimidating 24.1% called-plus-swinging strike percentage, I like the Rangers to do the heavy lifting to send this total Over the number. Of course, Texas lefty Cody Bradford also sports a 5.48 xERA and 5.16 xFIP while allowing opposing hitters to tee off to the tune of a high-end .380 wOBA and 18.0% blast-contact rate.
Moneyline
TEX (+135)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Mariners prized prospect Kade Anderson lands in a tough matchup against the rolling Rangers on Wednesday. Texas ranks fourth in wOBA against lefties for the season, and the Rangers also sit eighth in the overall metric and sixth in xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.6 runs per game. Anderson has also underwhelmed at the highest level with a 5.14 xFIP, negative pitch values on both his fastball and changeup and an unintimidating 24.1% called-plus-swinging strike percentage. So, with the Mariners ranking last in wOBA against lefties, in addition to 24th in the overall metric and 23rd in xwOBA over the past two weeks, I recommend the Texas moneyline to +125 this afternoon.
CLE
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:35 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Shane Baz o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+112)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I bought this at +112 with a fair price of -120 based on a 92-pitch projected count and 4.91 projected Ks. Shane Baz is needed in a big game with playoff implications. He's been a K-per-inning pitcher over the last 30 days and has pitched better in Baltimore, with more strikeouts per nine than on the road this season. The leash is there, too, as he has reached 90+ pitches in 80% of his last 15 starts, including 95+ pitches in nine of them. Five innings and five strikeouts is a modest projection today, especially after the Orioles used five arms yesterday and need to win this series. He's also in great form, ranking No. 23 in FIP among starters in the second half, even with some BABIP and LOB% numbers suggesting his 3.31 ERA could be even better.
Total Home Runs
Coby Mayo o0.5 Total Home Runs (+337)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Coby Mayo has real power upside after going deep twice over the last week with a strong ISO and consistent fly-ball profile. Griffin is not a massive homer target, but his right-handed hitter splits and Cleveland’s bullpen air-contact numbers give Mayo enough paths to leave the yard.
NYM
@
MIA
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Jared Young u0.5 Total Hits (+182)
Projection 0.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Jared Young has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 21% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.. The #8 stadium in the majors for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -11° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Jared Young pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 78th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Brett Baty u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Brett Baty is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. Brett Baty has been pulled from the game early 27% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.. LoanDepot Park ranks as the #30 stadium in the majors for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -11° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
HOU
@
PHI
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:40 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-123)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I’m anticipating a low-scoring game tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Houston righty Hunter Brown has been solid down the stretch, and Philly ace Cristopher Sanchez has pitched at an elite level all season. Additionally, both bullpens have shown off in the second half, with Houston ranking ninth in xERA and sixth in xFIP, while Philly respectively checks in 11th and 10th. I also value that both offenses rank below average in wOBA against the respected handedness of the starting pitcher they're facing tonight.
Spread
PHI -1.5 (+142)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Philadelphia ace Cristopher Sanchez has been next to automatic and draws a below-average Houston offense ranking 16th in wOBA against lefties and 30th in xwOBA over the past 30 days. Of course, the Philly offense is fifth in xwOBA while striking out at the third-lowest clip over the past 30 days, too. It’s a good recipe for success against Houston righty Hunter Brown. He’s sporting a solid, but unspectacular 3.90 xERA and 3.99 xFIP with a concerning 12.7% walk rate across his past 11 starts, after all.
LAA
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jose Siri o0.5 Total RBIs (+209)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Jose Siri ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Siri is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 ballpark in MLB for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for batters.. Jose Siri will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Bennett in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 9th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 ballpark in MLB for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for batters.
COL
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total Home Runs (+228)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
It's time.
After looking like he got his sea legs back under him yesterday, this is the kind of matchup that could get him rolling. We've spent this entire article talking about why Sugano is such an easy pitcher to fade, so we don't need to revisit it. However, you really couldn't ask for a better pitcher matchup for Judge, who had the highest hard-hit rate of Yankees players a season ago against his two primary pitches.
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Aaron Judge is back, and I’m looking for the Yankees captain to make his presence felt against Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano. The right-hander has been getting absolutely lit up by right-handed hitters, allowing a hard-hit rate above 53% and a line-drive rate of nearly 43% over his last 60 right-handed hitters faced. Those hitters have also posted a .459 xBA and .689 xSLG. Judge carries an elite rating on Batters-Box, surpassing this prop 54% of the time across 157 elite home ratings over the last three seasons, while homering 32.48% of the time.
TB
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Drake Baldwin o0.5 Total Home Runs (+525)
Jason Wilson
Publishing Editor
Total
u8.5 (-115)
Jason Wilson
Publishing Editor
PIT
@
CHW
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Lake Bachar o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+155)
Projection 3.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Lake Bachar in the 78th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.. The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Munetaka Murakami, Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery).. It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Roberto Ortiz) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.. Lake Bachar's 2708-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 100th percentile among all SPs.. Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Lake Bachar must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 60.7% of the time, ranking in the 77th percentile.
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+207)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryan Reynolds's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #6 ballpark in the majors for overall left-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most humidity of all games on the slate (75%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Davis Martin in today's matchup.
AZ
@
KC
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+164)
Projection 0.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Salvador Perez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #5 field in baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Salvador Perez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total Hits
Carter Jensen u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
CHC
@
MIL
Wed, Sep 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This homer bet is on the books at 23.9% and playable to 25% because Crow-Armstrong took Milwaukee starter Logan Henderson deep last week, and his .316 ISO against righties is second in the majors. Additionally, the Chicago star paces the league with 20 homers and a .395 ISO in the second half.
Total
o7.5 (-105)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Over 7.5 is in at 51.2% and recommended to 53.5% because both offenses are rolling at the dish. The Cubbies are fifth in wOBA and third in ISO against righties for the campaign, and they also pace the majors in xwOBA and wRC+ over the past 30 days. It's a similar story for the Brewers, with Milwaukee pacing the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitchers for the year, and they also rank second in wOBA and eighth in xwOBA over the past 30 days.
CIN
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 9 • 10:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
The surging Dodgers are positioned to tee-off on both Rhett Lowder, who owns a brutal 6.79 road ERA, and a Reds bullpen sporting a 6.23 ERA over the past two weeks. Yoshinobu Yamamoto presents a tougher challenge for the Reds, but Cincinnati leads baseball in OPS over the past week and should contribute to the scoring. There’s plenty of firepower here to push this Over 8.5 runs.
Total Bases
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Sal Stewart is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Dodger Stadium grades out as the #3 ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is forecasted to have the 15th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
