MLB Picks

The pitching matchup of Ohtani against Shane McClanahan looks appealing for the Under, but both are struggling. Ohtani allowed a season-high four runs in just over six innings last time out, and McClanahan has lost his last two starts, giving up eight runs in nine innings. An easier Over with positive odds is worth a flier.

Ceddanne Rafaela should be in the mix as the Red Sox rough up Max Scherzer, who clearly doesn't have it anymore based on his 6.14 xERA and bottom third percentile K-rate. He typically bats just ahead of Wilyer Abreu, who has an RBI in three of his last four overall. Rafaela has multiple hits in three of his last four, but has been unlucky to be stranded in each instance. This is playable to -125.

Anthony Kay's .594 expected SLG allowed and 10.3% barrel rate is a big story. I mentioned how I expect the Yankees to hit him hard and there's just loads of evidence to back that up. On the other side, Carlos Rodon's bottom 3 percentile walk rate is always a story. It's an issue here because this Chicago White Sox team has quietly hung around the top ten of baseball in various hard-hit metrics. The New York Yankees do the heavily lifting and the White Sox put up a crooked inning in a hitter-friendly stadium.

The Milwaukee Brewers are going to try to attack right-hander Gavin Williams with six left-handed bats in their lineup, but there's a reason lefties are batting only .199 with a .666 OPS against Williams this season, and it should serve him well specifically in this matchup. Williams' four-seam fastball has incredible rising life at the top of the zone, which creates a significant challenge for lefties trying to pull the ball with power. They constantly get under the ball and pop it up. On paper, at a quick glance, it looks like the Brewers have a platoon advantage against Williams, but that's not actually the case. It's why I think the Guardians should be closer to a -115 favorite than a +110 underdog.

I needed a piece of this Pirates/Athletics game because Sutter Health Park is a launching pad and projects, once again, as the best home run park on the slate today. During the Athletics' current eight-game homestand, there have been a whopping 43 home runs hit in Sacramento, with Bryan Reynolds accounting for two of them -- both coming last night. For comparison, the Rays have hit just 58 home runs all season across 70 games. Aaron Civale is starting for the Athletics and making his first start off the IL. Before going down last month, he owned one of the worst HR/9 rates in baseball and is an extreme flyball pitcher. He likely won't go deep and will hand things over to a bullpen that ranks fourth-worst in baseball by ERA over the last two weeks.

Dominic Canzone draws an elite matchup tonight against Orioles right hander Kyle Bradish, ranking as the top rated spot on Batters-Box’s current season timeframe with strong coverage across Bradish’s pitch mix. Canzone has been locked in lately, hitting .370 with a 1.285 OPS, plus elite hard contact and barrel rates over his last 30 at bats versus right handed pitching. Bradish has struggled with lefties, allowing heavy contact quality and strong production in recent samples, including elevated xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA marks. With current form and matchup data aligned, Canzone’s HRR prop offers strong value at plus money.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.