Pittsburgh @ Houston Picks & Props

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all stadiums. Oneil Cruz has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 19.3% seasonal rate to 29.6% in the last two weeks. Oneil Cruz has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 102.8-mph average in the past week to his seasonal average of 96.4-mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.351) provides evidence that Oneil Cruz has had bad variance on his side this year with his .323 actual wOBA.

The #9 ballpark in the game for suppressing BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which often leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching. Hitting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Yainer Diaz will have the upper hand today. Today, Yainer Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.1% rate (84th percentile).

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Andrew McCutchen will have an advantage today. The Barrel% of Andrew McCutchen has significantly improved, with an increase from 6.8% last year to 12.2% this season.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Martin Perez will hold the platoon advantage over Yordan Alvarez in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game. Utilizing Statcast data, Yordan Alvarez is in the 96th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .377.

Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Michael A. Taylor will have an edge in today's game. In the last 7 days, Michael A. Taylor's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 40%. Over the past week, Michael A. Taylor's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.8-mph over the course of the season to 109.6-mph lately. Over the past 7 days, Michael A. Taylor's 60% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael A. Taylor's true offensive ability to be a .286, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .029 deviation between that figure and his actual .257 wOBA.

Bryan Reynolds's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest left field fences in MLB. Bryan Reynolds has recorded a .352 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 90th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Grading out in the 88th percentile, Bryan Reynolds has posted a .356 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Altuve has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 7 days.

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest left field fences in MLB. Jake Meyers will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Compared to last season, Jake Meyers has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 40% to 46.7% this season. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance this year. His .308 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .351.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Ke'Bryan Hayes will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Ke'Bryan Hayes has been unlucky this year, putting up a .264 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .300 — a .036 gap.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Alex Bregman has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 4.6% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the past week. Alex Bregman has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 93.4-mph in the past 14 days.

Connor Joe is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Connor Joe will have the upper hand in today's game.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage in today's game. Victor Caratini has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph EV. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 8.8% to 19%. Victor Caratini has compiled a .266 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Victor Caratini has posted a .266 batting average since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 84th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Chas McCormick will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Chas McCormick's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, increasing from 19.7% on the season to 37.5% over the last 7 days. Chas McCormick has been unlucky this year, notching a .265 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .048 gap. Chas McCormick has recorded a .321 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile.

Jared Triolo's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jared Triolo will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. Jared Triolo has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph to 97.1-mph over the last week. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jared Triolo has experienced some negative variance this year. His .252 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .292.

Jeremy Pena's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeremy Pena is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest left field fences in MLB. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today's game. Jeremy Pena has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 4.9% seasonal rate to 10% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Martin Perez in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. By putting up a .274 batting average this year, Mauricio Dubon finds himself in the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Bryan De La Cruz is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Bryan De La Cruz will have the upper hand in today's game. Bryan De La Cruz has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.3-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.6-mph average. Bryan De La Cruz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.9-mph average to last season's 92.4-mph mark.

Joey Bart has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Joey Bart will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the past 7 days, Joey Bart's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.5% up to 27.3%. Joey Bart has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.7-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.2-mph mark.

Martin Perez will hold the platoon advantage over Jon Singleton in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jon Singleton will hold that advantage today. Jon Singleton has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 7.3% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last week. Jon Singleton has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph to 95-mph in the past 7 days. Over the past week, Jon Singleton's 58.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45%.