Kansas City @ Chicago Picks & Props

Drew Thorpe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Salvador Perez in today's game. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Salvador Perez in today's game. Salvador Perez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 94.5-mph seasonal average has dropped to 88.8-mph in the last 7 days. Salvador Perez has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .273 figure is considerably higher than his .255 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Drew Thorpe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. today. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game. Compared to his seasonal mark of 15.6°, Bobby Witt Jr. has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.7°) in the last 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bobby Witt Jr.'s true offensive ability to be a .371, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .041 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .412 wOBA.

Vinnie Pasquantino will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Vinnie Pasquantino's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 93-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 90.1-mph in the past 7 days. In notching a .262 BABIP this year, Vinnie Pasquantino finds himself in the 19th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Massey in the 18th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Michael Massey in today's game. When it comes to plate discipline, Michael Massey's ability is quite bad, putting up a 4.62 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 23rd percentile. By putting up a .242 BABIP this year, Michael Massey is positioned in the 25th percentile.

Hitting from the same side that Drew Thorpe throws from, Maikel Garcia meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. Maikel Garcia will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Maikel Garcia's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 92.7-mph figure last year has dropped to 89.9-mph. In the last week, Maikel Garcia's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.6-mph in recent games. Compared to his seasonal mark of 7.1°, Maikel Garcia has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-6°) over the past 14 days.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Bats such as Miguel Vargas with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brady Singer who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Andrew Benintendi's batting average skill is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Andrew Benintendi will have the handedness advantage over Brady Singer in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Singer has a large platoon split. Andrew Benintendi has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Andrew Benintendi will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Riley Baldwin pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Riley Baldwin will hold that advantage in today's game. Riley Baldwin has been hot recently, compiling a 92.6-mph average exit velocity in the past week. Riley Baldwin has been lifting the ball well of late, putting up a 32.5° launch angle in the past two weeks.

Luis Robert's BABIP skill is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Robert is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Luis Robert pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Luis Robert will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Dominic Fletcher will have the handedness advantage against Brady Singer today... and even better, Singer has a large platoon split. Dominic Fletcher will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.290) implies that Dominic Fletcher has had bad variance on his side this year with his .226 actual wOBA.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Korey Lee will hold that advantage in today's game. Korey Lee has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .216 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .236 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Nick Senzel will hold that advantage today. Nick Senzel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 11.4% to 22.1%. In terms of his batting average, Nick Senzel has had bad variance on his side this year. His .202 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .241.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Drew Thorpe throws from, Adam Frazier will have an edge in today's matchup. Adam Frazier has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .197 rate is deflated compared to his .244 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Drew Thorpe throws from, Kyle Isbel will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Kyle Isbel's 64.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.8%.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage over Brady Singer in today's game... and even more favorably, Singer has a large platoon split. Gavin Sheets pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Gavin Sheets will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Lenyn Sosa has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Lenyn Sosa has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Lenyn Sosa will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Lenyn Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 13% to 17.9%.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Andrew Vaughn ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew Vaughn is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Andrew Vaughn will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Freddy Fermin pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. Freddy Fermin's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, increasing from 15.6% on the season to 27.8% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Freddy Fermin has compiled a .283 batting average this year, ranking in the 88th percentile.

Hunter Renfroe has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. In the last two weeks, Hunter Renfroe's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.2-mph over the course of the season to 95.6-mph lately. Hunter Renfroe's launch angle this season (18.4°) is a considerable increase over his 14.9° figure last year.

Nicky Lopez is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Because of Brady Singer's large platoon split, Nicky Lopez will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Nicky Lopez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Paul DeJong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Paul DeJong has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last season's 90.4-mph average. Paul DeJong has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 93.6-mph. Paul DeJong's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (20.6°) is considerably better than his 15.5° mark last season.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, MJ Melendez ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. MJ Melendez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Thorpe in today's game. MJ Melendez pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. MJ Melendez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.1-mph average.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 87°. Chuckie Robinson has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Chuckie Robinson will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.