Tampa Bay @ Houston props

The #8 stadium in the league for suppressing BABIP to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -10° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage today. Yordan Alvarez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 95-mph over the last 14 days.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Brandon Lowe has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 92.9-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Brandon Lowe's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (20.9°) is a significant increase over his 13.9° mark last season. Over the last two weeks, Brandon Lowe's 32.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.1%.

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The shallowest left field dimensions among all parks are found in Minute Maid Park. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Yusei Kikuchi in today's matchup. Last year, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 23.6°. Dylan Carlson has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .210 figure is a fair amount lower than his .238 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Hitting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Jose Siri will have an edge in today's game. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Siri has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last season's 94-mph figure. Jose Siri has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 102.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 96.7-mph.

Hitting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Jose Caballero will have the upper hand today. Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Caballero has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 89.2-mph. Sporting a .326 BABIP this year, Jose Caballero is positioned in the 80th percentile.

Victor Caratini will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Victor Caratini has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.7-mph mark. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, increasing from 45.1% on the season to 100% in the last week. Victor Caratini has notched a .265 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. With a .265 batting average since the start of last season, Victor Caratini is ranked in the 79th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Christopher Morel will have the handedness advantage over Yusei Kikuchi in today's game. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 11.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz as the 18th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his batting average skill. Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week, Yainer Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8% up to 22.7%. Yainer Diaz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 99.6-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 92-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past 14 days, Chas McCormick's 23.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.2%. Chas McCormick has been unlucky this year, posting a .266 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .047 deviation. In notching a .321 BABIP since the start of last season, Chas McCormick has performed in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Altuve will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jose Altuve's launch angle this year (15°) is considerably higher than his 11.4° mark last season.

The shallowest left field dimensions among all parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.7°, Jake Meyers has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 18.2° figure in the past 14 days. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 40% to 47.2%. Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .305 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .351 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Alex Bregman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Alex Bregman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 92.4-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Over the past 7 days, Alex Bregman's 22.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. The shallowest left field dimensions among all parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Jeremy Pena will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Jeremy Pena's launch angle from last year's 5.5° to 8.5° this season.

The shallowest left field dimensions among all parks are found in Minute Maid Park. The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Yusei Kikuchi. Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year, posting a .223 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .279 — a .056 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 79th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Curtis Mead has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Curtis Mead will have an advantage in today's game. Curtis Mead has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .279 rate is a fair amount lower than his .317 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Curtis Mead is in the 76th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (45.3% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. By putting up a .273 batting average this year, Mauricio Dubon is ranked in the 79th percentile.

Jon Singleton will hold the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jon Singleton will hold that advantage today. Jon Singleton has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past 7 days. Jon Singleton has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 89.2-mph figure.

Alex Jackson will hold the platoon advantage over Yusei Kikuchi in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Jackson's true offensive skill to be a .279, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .098 difference between that figure and his actual .181 wOBA. This year, Alex Jackson's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to study power) is in the 82nd percentile at 94.6 mph.