St. Louis @ Chicago Picks & Props

Paul Goldschmidt will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Paul Goldschmidt's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 91.1-mph seasonal average has lowered to 87.7-mph over the last 14 days. Paul Goldschmidt has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, checking in at the 20th percentile with a 3.93 K/BB rate.

Willson Contreras has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Willson Contreras today. Willson Contreras's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 14.7% to 11%. In the last two weeks, Willson Contreras's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.2%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Willson Contreras has experienced some positive variance this year. His .373 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .340.

Miles Mikolas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nico Hoerner today. In today's game, Nico Hoerner is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.8% rate (93rd percentile). Nico Hoerner has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 83.7-mph in the past 14 days. Nico Hoerner's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, falling from 44% on the season to 32.6% in the last 14 days. Nico Hoerner has been cold lately, compiling a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Lars Nootbaar will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP. Lars Nootbaar has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last year's 89.1-mph EV. Lars Nootbaar has been unlucky this year, posting a .312 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .337 — a .025 deviation.

The 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league are found in Wrigley Field. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team today. Miguel Amaya will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Miguel Amaya's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (27° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 4° seasonal angle.

Miles Mikolas will have the handedness advantage over Seiya Suzuki today. Seiya Suzuki has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .356 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .324 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Cody Bellinger pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Cody Bellinger's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 43.4% to 37.6%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.235) provides evidence that Cody Bellinger has had some very good luck this year with his .276 actual batting average.

Masyn Winn has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will be challenged by baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences today. Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.7-mph mark last year has dropped off to 87.1-mph. Masyn Winn's launch angle lately (5.7° over the past 14 days) is significantly worse than his 13.8° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Masyn Winn's true offensive ability to be a .286, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .033 deviation between that mark and his actual .319 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Ian Happ is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Miles Mikolas in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team today.

Michael Busch is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Michael Busch will have the handedness advantage against Miles Mikolas today. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team today. Michael Busch will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Brendan Donovan has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP. Brendan Donovan has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.339) suggests that Brendan Donovan has had bad variance on his side this year with his .318 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Alec Burleson may have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP. Alec Burleson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 13.9% on the season to 25% in the last week. In notching a .289 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Alec Burleson is ranked in the 93rd percentile.

Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Mike Tauchman will have the upper hand today. Mike Tauchman has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team today. Mike Tauchman will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league are found in Wrigley Field. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Pedro Pages will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Steele in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 85th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas today. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team today. Pete Crow-Armstrong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. The 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league are found in Wrigley Field. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Tommy Pham is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Tommy Pham will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Steele in today's matchup. Tommy Pham has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.8-mph average.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Nolan Arenado will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Steele today. Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Nolan Arenado has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph to 88.3-mph over the past week.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the worst among every team today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nolan Gorman has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.