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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 25, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.32 |
+130 
|
o6.5 -114 
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.03 |
-134 
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +180 
|
Baltimore
NY Yankees
Top Projection
Carlos Narvaez o0.5 Total RBIs (+429)
o0.5+475
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.75 |
-115 
|
o6.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +162
|
|
4.25 |
+102
|
u6.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
Chi. Cubs
Boston
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.05 |
+145
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -148
|
|
4.70 |
-162
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +145 
|
Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+204)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.29 |
-108
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.17 |
-106
|
u8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +150
|
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.37 |
-134
|
o7.5 -117
|
-1.5 +130 
|
|
4.73 |
+115
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -141
|
NY Mets
Washington
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.50 |
+116
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -162
|
|
4.01 |
-132
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +165
|
Cincinnati
Toronto
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
-122
|
o8.0 -112 
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.56 |
+106
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -162
|
Atlanta
Miami
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
-129
|
o7.5 -112
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
3.80 |
+120
|
u8.0 -124
|
+1.5 -145
|
Cleveland
Kansas City
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+223)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.74 |
+194
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -108
|
|
5.04 |
-200
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +100
|
Colorado
Chi. White Sox
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o0.5 Total RBIs (+325)
o0.5+354
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.69 |
+151
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.17 |
-172
|
u8.5 -124
|
-1.5 +128
|
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Top Projection
William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
-108
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.61 |
-105
|
u7.5 -103
|
-1.5 +150
|
Texas
Minnesota
Top Projection
Royce Lewis u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
u1.5-220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.33 |
-170
|
o8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +102
|
|
5.25 |
+146
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -117
|
Houston
Athletics
Top Projection
Jonah Heim o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.23 |
+116
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.20 |
-134
|
u7.5 -112
|
-1.5 +168
|
Arizona
San Diego
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+135)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.32 |
+115
|
o6.5 -130
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.56 |
-130
|
u7.0 -118
|
-1.5 +180
|
LA Angels
Seattle
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+350)
o0.5+350
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.92 |
-360
|
o7.5 +108
|
-2.5 -115
|
|
2.53 |
+305
|
u7.5 -120
|
+2.5 +110
|
LA Dodgers
San Francisco
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+167
CHC
@
BOS
Fri, Sep 25 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Carson Kelly o1.5 Total Bases (+206)
Projection 1.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball.. Carson Kelly will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alec Gamboa in today's matchup.. Using Statcast metrics, Carson Kelly ranks in the 77th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .340.. Carson Kelly has shown good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 75th percentile with a 1.8 K/BB rate.
Total Bases
Adley Rutschman o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Adley Rutschman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all parks, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage today.
BAL
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 25 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Pete Alonso has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 14.7% seasonal rate to 36.4% in the last week.. Pete Alonso has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 97.9-mph.. Pete Alonso's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 51.3% on the season to 81.8% in the past week.
Total Bases
Coby Mayo o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run skill, Coby Mayo ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Coby Mayo has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 13.5% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the last 7 days.. Coby Mayo has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100.1-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 95.3-mph.. Compared to last season, Coby Mayo has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.7% to 18.8% this season.
TB
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Bryson Stott o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Bryson Stott is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Bryson Stott will have an advantage today.
Total Bases
Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the league.. Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Bryce Harper will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Bryce Harper has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
PIT
@
DET
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as Major League Baseball's 18th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. In the majors, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Jackson Jobe throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. In the majors, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Kevin McGonigle will have the handedness advantage over Bubba Chandler in today's game.
NYM
@
WAS
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
James Wood o0.5 Total Home Runs (+525)
Projection 0.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
James Wood projects as the 10th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Nationals Park has the 10th-smallest outfield among all parks — generally good for homers.. James Wood will have the handedness advantage over Jonathan Pintaro in today's game... and the cherry on top, Pintaro has a large platoon split.. James Wood has strong power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Justin Hagenman is a pitch-to-contact type (15th percentile K%) — great news for Wood.
Total Home Runs
Keibert Ruiz o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1300)
Projection 0.09
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Jonathan Pintaro... and even better, Pintaro has a large platoon split.. Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Keibert Ruiz will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. This season, Keibert Ruiz has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 89.7 mph compared to last year's 86.1 mph mark.. Keibert Ruiz's launch angle in recent games (25.3° over the past 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 16.8° seasonal angle.
BAL
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Heliot Ramos o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Heliot Ramos will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Young in today's matchup.. Heliot Ramos has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Christian Encarnacion-Strand o0.5 Total RBIs (+235)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has paced 29.0 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 90th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Placing in the 85th percentile, Christian Encarnacion-Strand has put up a .343 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.
CIN
@
TOR
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:07 PM ET
Total RBIs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 4th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Lodolo today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Total RBIs
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. George Springer will have the handedness advantage over Nick Lodolo in today's matchup.. George Springer hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. George Springer will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
ATL
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Ronald Acuna Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which tends to lead to less offense.. Eury Perez will hold the platoon advantage against Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's game.. In today's game, Ronald Acuna Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.1% rate (87th percentile).. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's matchup.. Ronald Acuna Jr.'s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 89.6-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 75.9-mph in the last week.
Total Bases
Austin Riley u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Austin Riley is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks LoanDepot Park as the 6th-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which tends to lead to less offense.. Eury Perez will have the handedness advantage against Austin Riley today.. Typically, batters like Austin Riley who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Eury Perez.
CLE
@
KC
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
CLE (-137)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
I’m backing Cleveland behind Gavin Williams, who enters with a 3.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 244 strikeouts in 181 innings. Kansas City counters with Noah Cameron, but the bigger edge comes once the starters leave. The Royals’ bullpen has been a problem all season, while Cleveland owns a 3.75 team ERA. With the Guardians still fighting for the AL Central, I’ll trust the better pitching staff in a meaningful game.
Total Bases
David Fry u1.5 Total Bases (-290)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Fry in the 12th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. David Fry is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.. David Fry has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 63% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound this year.. David Fry pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's deepest LF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.
COL
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+149)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Hunter Goodman as the majors's 14th-best home run batter.. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the #6 park in baseball for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hunter Goodman pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Grading out in the 100th percentile for power, Hunter Goodman has paced 41.8 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.
Total RBIs
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mickey Moniak will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Burke today.. Mickey Moniak pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Mickey Moniak's launch angle this season (21.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 17.4° angle last year.. Mickey Moniak has averaged 32.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 91st percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
STL
@
MIL
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Thomas Saggese u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Thomas Saggese is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.. The weather report predicts the most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Thomas Saggese has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will be challenged by MLB's 7th-deepest RF fences today.. The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense profiles as the 5th-strongest out of all the teams today.. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Thomas Saggese today.
Total RBIs
William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. William Contreras is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
TEX
@
MIN
Fri, Sep 25 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Royce Lewis u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Royce Lewis's BABIP ability is projected in the 16th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Royce Lewis is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Target Field's centerfield fences are the 10th-deepest.. Target Field has the 5th-tallest average fence height in the league.. Hitting from the same side that Jacob deGrom throws from, Royce Lewis will have a tough matchup today.
Total Hits
Brooks Lee u0.5 Total Hits (+175)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 10th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Among all major league parks, Target Field's centerfield fences are the 10th-deepest.. Brooks Lee's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 90.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 84.4-mph in the past two weeks.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brooks Lee's true offensive skill to be a .292, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .025 gap between that mark and his actual .317 wOBA.. Using Statcast data, Brooks Lee is in the 6th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .267.
HOU
@
ATH
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2.04
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #2 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.6-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Projection 2.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in the league.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #2 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°.
AZ
@
SD
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
AZ (+116)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Arizona Diamondbacks are trading at 46% on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to 50% against the San Diego Padres. You can't have your back against the wall much more than the Diamondbacks do this weekend, as they basically need a sweep to have any hope of making the postseason. That should lead to their roster being managed like they're playing an elimination game, but I also really like the matchup for Brandon Pfaadt. The heart of the Padres' lineup is loaded with right-handed bats, and that's not a problem for Pfaadt, who has held right-handed hitters to a .599 OPS this season. His hard, sweeping slider runs away from the barrels of right-handed hitters, giving him a pitch that can neutralize the strength of San Diego's lineup. That's why the Diamondbacks have my attention at this price.
Total Bases
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. In the league, Petco Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most humidity on the slate today (79%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's game.
LAA
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 25 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Julio Rodriguez u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
T-Mobile Park ranks as the #29 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Julio Rodriguez has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 7 days.. Julio Rodriguez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 13.7% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.. Julio Rodriguez has displayed poor plate discipline this year, grading out in the 25th percentile with a 3.02 K/BB rate.
Total RBIs
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+350)
Projection 0.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Josh Lowe's BABIP skill is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. T-Mobile Park has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Josh Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Bryce Miller in today's game.. Josh Lowe has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.
LAD
@
SF
Fri, Sep 25 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.4-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Yunior Marte throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have an edge in today's matchup.. The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Shohei Ohtani can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
Total RBIs
Victor Bericoto o0.5 Total RBIs (+380)
Projection 0.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Victor Bericoto is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.4-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Tarik Skubal throws from, Victor Bericoto will have an advantage today.. Victor Bericoto has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Victor Bericoto will hold that advantage in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
